What is the Possible End-Scenarios to the Current Crisis in South Sudan?
By PaanLuel Wel
Barring the tragedy of the situation, it is amusing how the government is conducting the aftermath of the mutiny–making it appears as a resounding victory rather than the beginning of a tragedy awaiting the nation.
One thing is clear: there is no end to this crisis other than some kind of mediated compromise between President Kiir and Riek Machar. Riek Machar will come back to Juba as the 1st Vice President of South Sudan, and possibly with a clause making him unfirable by Kiir. If that is the case, then won’t it make more sense to initiate the dialogue and peaceful end to the crisis RIGHT NOW rather than waiting for more precious lives to be lost on both sides before the two camps settle for what it is that it is.
If the government has not been able to fight and contain Yau-Yau and George Athor (till Uganda did their dirty work), what make them think that they will fight and defeat Riek Machar?
Moreover, it is likely that Riek and Yau-Yau will find it politically and militarily convenient to join forces and fight Juba. And Unity state, the home state of Riek Machar and where South Sudan’s oil is produced, will possibly turn into the battlefield, depriving Juba of all the oil’s revenue.
With no oil revenue and with the combined forces of Riek and Yau-Yau, Juba will be compelled to enter a compromised agreement with Machar. That could be done NOW before more lives are lost rather than later when it becomes apparent that the war is not winnable.
What happened was more like a mutiny than a coup and it should not be allowed to gain life of its own and spiral out of control. The International Community should help the two sides to reach some kind of a peaceful settlement before the crisis engulf the entire country.
Riek has no enough forces and hardware to defeat President Kiir; President Kiir, who has failed to bring Yau-Yau to book, should not fancy himself into thinking that he has the means to defeat Riek’s forces.
That Riek may come back as the 1st Vice President (keeping Wani as the 2nd VP) is a bitter medicine that we South Sudanese has to swallow to avoid fighting an endless and pointless war among brothers that would likely be exploited and perpetuated by Khartoum.
I think the patient needs the medicine, and badly so for that matter.