The seven wrong calculations of Kenya: South Sudan will accept war with Kenya
6 min read
March 30, 2015 (SSB) —- Our flag drips with our blood and that of our brothers. In some neighbours’ eyes, our flag represents no country. To them, South Sudan represents a void, which needs creation. So out of South Sudan, they desire to create for themselves, an economical hub.
Kenyans calculated 7 wrong calculations; these forced them to invade South Sudan’s territory.
Wrong calculation # 1: our internal conflict.
In multiple pieces, our country broke. A war claimed thousands and displaced thousands of our citizens to neighboring countries. So to them(Kenyans), the conflict weakened our military capabilities. With this hollow in our brotherhood’s bonds, Kenyans think, they can grab anything out of South Sudan. So they invaded our God given territory.
However, this calculation will fail in the following stance. Brothers’ disagreements don’t hold across the borders. So if wicked and opportunistic neighbours capitalise on brothers’ disagreements, then they will wake up in another planet. A planet where united brothers tackle the greedy aggressors.
Wrong calculation #2: Our citizens fuel.. ..
Our citizens littered Kenya, from Northern Kenya to Southern Kenya, and from Eastern Kenya to Western Kenya. South Sudanese run Nairobi (Central) economically. Kenyans might have considered South Sudanese refugees in Kakuma(Turkana’s land) in their equations (calculations); however, the responsibility of registered refugees belong to the UN. With this calculation in minds, Kenyans invaded South Sudan.
However, South Sudan has two capacities to neutralise the above calculation. Firstly, the government of South Sudan can call its citizens residing in Kenya, home. Secondly, the government of South Sudan can advise its citizens living in Kenya to register as refugees.
Our citizens fuel Kenyans’ economy through renting properties, buying food and none food items. Even transport sector: land and air; South Sudanese spend fortunes in travelling in and out of Kenya.
In addition, 30,000 Kenyans reside and work in South Sudan. If Our government expel them today, Kenyans will weep and suffer. Our population in Kenya, spend every dollar or shilling in Kenya. And negligible number of South Sudanese work in Kenya . I swear, the decision will be a disaster. Another double economical loss. So this calculation is another dumb ass calculation.
Wrong calculation #3: politicians’ and business persons’ money
The tsunamic corruption in South Sudan today, originated from Kenya. No doubts that Kenya police watch money in bulky cheques and bags into Kenya without a word. This money laundering, quadrupled the Kenyans’ bank profits through compound interest. Therefore, Kenyans’ economy exponentially grow every year because every dollar earn on oil, sublimes to Kenyans’ banks.
With these large amount of South Sudanese money floating in their banks, Kenyans made, yet another wrong calculation. They believe, South Sudan’s politicians can’t sprint to war whatsoever.
However, Kenyans calculated it wrong because before anything, South Sudanese politicians have rights to withdraw their money and invest it in some other countries such as Zimbabwe and Egypt.
Wrong calculation #4: Their universities.
From small to large universities in Kenya, South Sudan’s tertiary students fill the lectures theatres. These universities feed South Sudan with some outstanding graduates every year. This, another wrong calculation of Kenya. They think, because hundreds of our students at their universities, we can’t go for war even if they annex Kapoeta.
However, they calculated it wrong because our students run their universities financially through universities’ fees and accommodation’s fees. South Sudan has capability of sending her students to abroad, leave alone to Africans’ universities. If South Sudan withdraws her students, Kenyans’ universities will collapse.
Wrong calculation #5: real estate investment
South Sudanese politicians and business persons invest their money in Kenya’s real estate sector. They bought mansions and townhouses for rent. Some have bought 7 stars mansions for their personal uses. So billions of dollars reel around in Kenya economy from real estate.
With this gigantic amount of money, Kenyans think, they can get away with South Sudan invasion. They are wrong again, because this amount of money doesn’t equate to 62 years old wealth, Kenyans, especially Kikuyu[Uhuru (president)’s tribe of Kenya] accumulated. Make no mistake, we can match into war.
Wrong calculation #6: Diplomacy
The Kenyans despise us on diplomatic matters. They think, they can win both ways outright. I bet in this area, we can beat them terribly because our foreign affairs minister, Marial Benjamin has an expertise in foreign affairs .
Wrong calculation #7: Mombasa’ s port
All our military supplies come from Mombasa’s port. With our problems, which need military logistics and arms, Kenyans think, they can create or destroy anything in South Sudan, given its position of being stationed at the shore and South Sudan being a landlocked.
However, our military supplies can find their ways to South Sudan by air. We can afford this, given our financial standard.
To rest it, Kenyans must be careful about our president because scratching his nerves by invading our country is a grave decision. He can give sweeping orders anytime. Kenyans must use diplomatic options but not military pressures because Kiir is an expert in this area.
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it amusing and outstanding analysis Kur Wel Kur. all those calculation you have had analyse are 99.9% correct in all the ways possible and of course that is the perception in all the minds of living Kenyans. I wish our president would acts before it is too late. Whatever Kenyans are doing to South Sudan, would always be counted on Riek’s decision to be a number one enemy of the country (South Sudan). Thanks, greatest thoughts!.
Thanks, MDJ.
Kenyans are greedy and opportunistic neighbours. What took them so long if they knew the land belong them? Why taking advantage of our current situations.
Yes, Riek is to blame for all that’s happeningin South Sudan. It could be his dirty politics.
They (Kenyans) are the number one cowards! Our own created instability was giving all our neighbours opportunities to slammed us in the face. the only man the respected so much was Dr John Garang De Mabior. Garang was an articulate person, a man who would get himself out of any situation by of all means. But still there are uncountable many Garangs’ out there, if our neighbours don’t know that. In addition, our current president (Salva Kiir), who was a long time military veteran and a successor to late Dr John. Is another man our neighbours must respected all the times. He is an experienced soldier and an expert in the area of warfare. So our neighbours do need to be careful in that regard! May they planned to weight any military solution against South Sudan. What they should do, is to considered and prioritise dialogue with the ‘legitimate’ government of South Sudan, led by comrade Salva Kiir Mayardit.
Hello Brothers, if not sisters. The issue here is not about Kenyans being miscalculating their assumption but, it is just a shame to fool South Sudanese and her dump government are to be blame, perhaps not Dr Riek in either way I beg, because he ( Riek) run away more than a year ago and wanted to secure his Nuer regions in a short term since he is not interested in state that has no natural resources other than states in Upper Nile, in fact, there must be a political twist somewhere else but not directly as from SPLM-O. Please don’t associate this comment as a support of Riek but we need to mind our own mess in our own Dinka’s Government of which we are proud of currently than later, especially if we want to succeed in governing others from SS in the future.
So Kenyans and their government has right to occupy any part of South Sudan at any time they want to as long as it is a no-man’s land because every one wants to live in Juba and they (Kenyans ) are still hosting de-facto refugees from South Sudan after many, many years of CPA or Independence, so what are you thinking about such situation and you are still talking too much against Kenyans or any other East African County ,they are sick and tired of your refugees as “international aids dependent” people. Indeed you’re talking nonsense about land or Territory invasion, I don’t think your government knows about boarder and never will he, he probably know about controlling Juba from Nuer or angry Equatorians, his (Kiir) mentality invasion from his own citizens matters in this equation, nevertheless, the author’s miscalculation blaming on Kenya come second after he seriously missed to calculate his president’s behaviour on his own country towards his citizen. However, everything doesn’t just fall under military action, you the author missed it too, and it is another wrong calculation from you. Kenya will not accept any fighting or war as you put it but have capability to use against SS that she already navigated from the South Sudanese People including their government. Unless you ask Dr John to come back for a short while and convince Kenyans to go back to where they came from, not by military means as you wish, because Garang was a good negotiator and a fighter together unlike kiir who asked Uganda to fight his own citizens despite they are part of country development. We are not Australian but Australian for economic and development only remember that, so why we finish our own development tools when we know already that we are tools for development in abroad in the name of humanitarian refugees.
When Garang negotiate with Riek in 2002, he did not need IGAD or other international experts, but he managed to recognise which way forward for the common goal for South Sudan to win over Sudan N. You believe me or not South Sudan does not have any military capability to protect its self, where will it get it from after recruiting Ugandan for a simple crises with Riek leave alone Nation like Kenya, fact must be said.
If you can recalls, Dr John G saying, he said that town will taken to people not people to town, this is where your mistakes pick- up . Unfortunately the current government or your government is not doing enough about such or similar to that of late Garang. any ways, don’t rush, you still got enough time to claimant on “whose land is it?” for the land occupied by Kenyans, Ugandans, Ethiopians or Sudan N. it is a matter of native title claim in 30 years come, like what Australia government did to indigenous Australian, the Australian government granted Indigenous people the right to recognition as owners of the land but not the land itself to be given back to them,
Deng Daniel, thanks for your long comment. I do appreciate your time.
I would have ignored your comment because of your arrogance but it sounds rude to ignore a reader.
I doubt your name; I don’t know whether you’re Nuer, Dinka or Shilluk. You’re so mixed up. So sorry man.
Deng, if you are South Sudanese by birth, but not Australian, what are your thoughts about Kenyans indirectly invading South Sudan? I have had read your essay opinion. But it is full of criticism and blaming without even a clear justification. But don’t fear yourself, be brave and support whoever you think is doing just and fair for the country (South Sudan). No hard feelings, you can be Riek supporter and that’s okay with me. lastly, Deng i think you should read Mabo case carefully! Australian government did not granted Indigenous People rights to the land. But the High Court of Australia did. They set a binding precedent. So please get your authorities right all the time; especially if you are a law student or a lawyer. Cheers mate!
Dear Mr. Deng Denial
I am sure many of our people always like to bring other issues into other topics, to clear staff like the author never ink his pen or idea or mention the name you brought up. What he/ she wrote have nothing to do with Riek so please if reading is the challenges we should look over articles again and again before we throw argumentative to our narrators.
I am begging you; please my brother let not augmentation of other personal opinions should be approach careful if you want to debate about national issue like this we can not blame rebel or government in the end it is our challenge it might be message of Kenya to united our nation to face external and leave internal affair. I believe if Government goes to war with Kenya rebel will laugh and watch them. Unless they were fight for own interest not for nation one. I think they both will go please this article is crystal clear. I hope you will get me do not reply me negatively my brother. I just clarify you. Thank you.
Thanks, Dede Marial Lok for your clear clearifications to Mr. Deng Daniel. I do appreciate your time and help.
Readers like Deng Daniel drag others into wrong arguments but they must know that what Kenyans are doing to us is a joking matter. It needs our seriousness.
Thanks, brother.
refugees trying to argue how to fight with Kenyans. Sorry brothers or sisters..wont be surprised if Kenya take over SS.. South Sudanese are the most stupid and uncivilized on earth. Kenya give you Education, shelter, food, governement even flag yet a refugee in Australia thinks Kenya can fight with SS?? how a landlocked country..Do you know Kenya is developing nuclear plants?? watch out!!
And you guys are begging Kenya for food now. You people were better of as slaves of the Arabs. A shame to Africans and typical negro behavior that cause whites to view charcoal skinned people like you as niggers.