Instant Positive Effects of the IGAD-PLUS Peace Deal on South Sudan Economy
5 min readBy Malith Alier Ajok, Juba, South Sudan
August 28, 2015 (SSB) — The decision by the president to sign the Compromise Peace Agreement CPA) on August 26 is indeed a commendable one. The notion that, the new nation of South Sudan itself borne out of war remaining in perpetual conflicts is unsustainable both in the short and long terms. There are people, internal and external who supported continuation of the war in the country for their own gains.
In every conflict, there are war spoils. The above categories of people tend to have somewhat benefited from these war spoils. This explains why some people are resisting calls for peace. Do not sign bad peace they claimed. Nevertheless, the president went ahead and signed it to the relief of great majority of citizens.
The small number of people who resists peace will now be lesser and will eventually join in the CPA implementation. This is true because everyone realises that peace comes handy with numerous benefits particularly to the common people. It was observed that women and children bear the consequences of any conflict the most. This is true of the 20 months civil war raging in the country.
Now is the dawn of lasting peace in South Sudan. It is time that peace dividends reach the remotest of the country. This has already started in the capital, Juba the following day after presidential signing of the peace accord.
The South Sudanese Pound appreciated against foreign currencies like US Dollar. If anyone thought that the market is not efficient in this country, let them think again in light of yesterday’s event. The Pound appreciated from 17 per Dollar to just 10 per Dollar. This is a gain of 41%. This comes at a time when people had given up on a runaway price of foreign currencies against national currency.
The market over the past twenty months of conflict had been inflating prices of commodities simply because of the scarcity of foreign reserves. This is bound to change as an indication of peace agreement holding. If indeed the CPA holds, commodity prices will ease and subsequently the common people will access goods that were erstwhile too exorbitant to afford.
Another positive effect of the peace agreement is that less people will die as a result of gun battles. Some fights will be here and there shall be of low intensive than before. Mothers will stop worrying much about their children dying in the frontlines. Wives have will have reduced anxiety about not seeing their husbands again.
And children will most probably not be left orphans as a result of Riek Machar’s war. Recall that this war has taken tens of thousands of lives already and this is the reason why many people are saying enough is enough.
The huge military expenditure will now be a thing of the past. Before this war, the army (SPLA) used to be allocated about 40% of the budget. This might have increased to seventy or eighty per cent amid increased demand for military technology and hardware.
The war has not only pitted the forces of the same army one another but it has also pitted brother against brother, community against another community. Therefore, every community had now rearmed itself for protection in areas where there is no presence of government. Above all, the level of antagonism among the people of South Sudan is currently higher like never before.
It is now the responsibility of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) to sort out this mess out. It should immediately set out to disarm, reconcile and avail development to those communities that were devastated by the 20 month long civil war.
The halting of war will allow the government of South Sudan to clean its tarnished image within and abroad. The power addict individuals in the SPLM will now be availed opportunities to prove themselves before the people of this country. The past claims of rampant corruption, failure of foreign policy, dictatorial tendencies, lack of reforms are set before the claimants to address. This is for a limited timeframe of two and a half years. There will be no time to waste.
On the other front, the SPLM should make it clear whether it intends to continue with the Arusha accord implementation or not. One group to accord who rejoined the party seems to have a change of heart and signed the CPA as a separate entity. This signalled that the party as well as mediators had no regard to the Arusha accord from day one.
The fact that the SPLM is sharing power among the three factions is further evidence that it has adverse regard to the Arusha accord than the Addis Ababa power sharing. No single party anywhere in the world shares power within itself.
Many people harbour a notion that reunification of the SPLM spells status quo. Democracy will not be achieved if the SPLM remains intact, clinging to the historical name.
The market in South Sudan is efficient. This is witnessed immediately after the signing of the Compromise Peace Agreement. Market efficiency means that it responds to available information positively or negatively whatever it may be.
The Transitional government of National Unity has major task ahead of it. It has got to implement the CPA and prepare for general elections after the expiry of the interim period. It has just 30 months to do so.
Finally, the Arusha accord is now in doubt because no single party shares power in quarters like set out in CPA of Addis Ababa. Arusha accord implementation was even queried by the Minister of Information and Broadcasting who is also government spokesman when Pagan turned around and sign the Addis Ababa accord on behalf of Former detainees.
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