As ceasefire lies in tatters in South Sudan, fears and uncertainty reign large across the country
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August 31, 2015 (SSB) — Last week, President Kiir signed the IGAD-Plus peace proposal after dithering for a week. However, he attached 14-page “reservation” paper which detailed areas, and reasons, rejected by the government in the peace deal.
Both the American government and the IGAD leaders came down hard on Juba, questioning the validity of the “reservation” and called upon President Kiir to withdraw his reservations and implement the peace accord as it was signed. So far, the government has not changed their positions on their reservations while at the same timing vowing to fully implement the agreement in good faith and spirit.
The cessation of hostilities and commencement of the permanent ceasefire between the warring factions was to begin automatically 72 hours after the signing of the peace agreement by President Kiir.
Perhaps to demonstrate to the Obama administration and IGAD that Juba was going to implement the peace accord, President Kiir decreed permanent ceasefire with the rebels and called upon his army units to remain within their areas of control and to fight back for self-defense if attack. The next day, the armed rebel leader followed suit and declare permanent ceasefire with the government.
However, the ceasefire was violated within 24 hours of these directives from the two warring leaders. Both sides have been too quick to blame each other for the grave violations of the peace agreement as heavy fighting is reported in southern Unity state and around Malakal in Upper Nile state.
The rebels claimed that their positions have come under sustained attacks in southern unity state from government soldiers using military barges in the Nile River. In Upper Nile, the rebels said their areas around Malakal were targeted by the government.
For the government, however, it is the rebels who have been shelling Malakal city for over two consecutive days and conducting raids on the outskirt of Malakal town. The government also claimed that the rebels have been trying to attack and capture defunct oilfields in Unity state.
The message from the IGAD verification team is that they cannot verify the fighting let alone who is responsible for the violation of the permanent ceasefire. The situation has remain murky, much to the chagrin of the international community.
While there is fighting on the ground, it is not clear who started it, making it very hard for IGAD and world powers to take the necessary actions required in the due violations of the ceasefire.
This has left the international and regional leaders to threaten sanctions and arms embargo on the violators of the peace deals while there is little understanding of the situation as it unfolds inside South Sudan.
Meanwhile, the renegade military generals of Riek Machar—Peter Gatdet and Gathoth Gatkuoth, plus the those disgruntled politicians led by Gabriel Changson—all of whom recently defected from Riek Machar’s camp, have made it very crystal clear that they are not bound by the terms of the peace deal since they were not a party to the peace deal.
Instead, they are threatening war on both the government and the rebels of Riek Machar. At the same time, they are demanding that a new, fresh peace talks should be established by IGAD, one that would be inclusive enough for all the arm-bearings factions of the South Sudanese crisis to participate and have a share in the government of national unity.
These renegade armed rebel leaders demand to be represented in a new peace dialogue under the auspice of IGAD that would see President and Riek Machar on one side and the other rebels groups on the other side of the negotiation table. This would mean formulating a new power sharing equation and another security arrangement and leadership structure formulae in place of the current one.
While this might at first sound ridiculous, it might be the stark reality in few months or years to come down the road if recent history of South Sudan is anything to rely on. For example, in 2002, Riek Machar negotiated a reunion with the SPLM/A under John Garang while numerous other militias refused to back the peace deal.
Later on, these militias leaders, notably the late Paulino Matip Nhial, sough and got their own separate peace deal with the SPLM/A under Salva Kiir Mayaardit.
This appears to be the script that Peter Gatdet and Gathoth Gatkuoth and Gabriel Changson are reading from. So long as they can inflict heavy losses on the country and sustain a spirited fight or even hit and run on the government, they know that the final outcome would be another peace negotiations with the government in which they would accrue better peace deal for themselves than what they would have gotten under the leadership of Riek Machar.
There is a rumor that Peter Gatdet is positioning himself to inherit the former position given to Paulino Matip—he want to be the deputy commander-in-chief of the national army under special arrangement that would see him only answerable to none but the president.
Thus, the problem facing the nation is not so much President Kiir’s reservations about the peace deal as much as it is the serious violations of the ceasefire by both parties. This is further compounded by the emergence of new rebel groups not bound by the terms and conditions of the IGAD peace deal.
As the permanent cessation of hostilities agreement lies in tatters, IGAD has remained clueless on how to enforce sanctions in a fluid situation in which it is extremely hard to apportion blame on the warring parties.
Meanwhile, South Sudanese of all walks of lives and of all ethnic groupings are gripped by great uncertainty and deadly fear of what tomorrow might bring: war.
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