Could IGAD’s Compromise Peace Agreement be against Ngundeng Predications?
11 min readBy Elbow Chuol
November 13, 2015 (SSB) — Let’s test the possibility of Ngundeng predictions against the recently signed IGAD’s Compromised Peace Agreement. For the international readers who may not be familiar with the title, have funs.
Some people would need a miracle to believe whether this imposed peace agreement is not here to materialize. Evidences produced by the recent IGAD peace progress is self-indication that peace is coming back home to people of South Sudan. It would take a well trained scientist to visit a laboratory to elaborate the system in which this development all came about considering months of poor experiments from the world’s most influential figures trying to resolves south Sudanese worse civil war. Or else a student of political Science would need to revise the notes years ago stored in the library to evaluate the possibilities for this compromised peace agreement not to be successful.
This peace is coming with all its colors of pain, happiness and exhaustion. This peace is coming with all its doubts, suspicious with some people afraid to make it to Juba and the other refusing to allow the other going to Juba for the same fear still. Juba the “crime scene” and the city of “unknown guns men” seem to be miles away from the precision of the “Dayioms” or Ngundeng believers. It is important to notice government spokesman Hon. Michael Makuei Lueth announced the delays of Armed Opposition advance team going to Juba.
This peace is coming long after thousands of south Sudanese already been sent to graves, millions displaces to the neighboring countries with a looming famine threatening the very existence of south Sudanese living in Greater Upper Nile, in particular those in Unity State. It is already here with no Justice! Where is the saying, no Justice no peace?
Sometimes I failed to understand how a very few people decides everything on earth, a very small percentage, in fact one percent are the equivalent of God on earth. They decides everything and mankind is shocked to vow down to their decisions. Either a war or peace, market price or the flow of international oil, food chains or global interest, to everything we cannot outlines here. And Ngundeng believers are part of the bigger picture here in my country, a land full of myths and tales.
Recently, I hardly located the choice behind Ngundeng predictions, orienting the attitudes of his followers and the deep aspiration which those who recites his words gained. If this be of any purpose, then we are destined to judge the history based on the reality of its consequences.
Now, where do I even begin to talks about what I am supposed to make known? I assumed some of you are indeed familiar with Ngundeng prophecies. Ngundeng Bong a 19 century Nuer prophet whose prophecies are now being recites through songs and tales by his admirers is one a famous man of his times. He was real and his words surely serious.
Some of his famous outspoken predictions mentioned the person of Dr. Riek Machar, the separation of Sudan, rising of South Sudan flag, the current civil war, death of Dr. John Garang in mountainous hills, returns of the prophet’s Dang/Rod, just to mention but few. And something else very interesting, prophet Ngundeng long ago foretold the defeats of “Tikyual Kuoth” which he said his fire would blasted. He was referring to Salva Kiir; this entirely according to the interpreters or followers who famously gained fame during this period in south Sudanese crisis.
Talking to Ngundeng followers can sometimes be an overwhelming discussion and in some occasions sincerely very interesting. They have a very powerful set of belief that even a strong Christ follower fully charged of faith can be moves and shaken by the existing of Ngundeng’s untold historical facts, extrapolations and evidences supporting the existence once of a man despite and at the same time highly reverence by his age mates.
Once sometimes back in the village of Mandeng, Nasir. I was tempted to chat with one of the strong Ngundeng follower of all times. His convictions were real; his arguments were well oriented and pretty much organized. What attracted me so much is how he systematically mocked IGAD’s involvement in South Sudan crisis which he categorically denounced every times we reaches to the point that discuss about peace process. The man would sarcastically says,
“It is not going to work.” referring to the peace agreement recently signed between the trio warring parties. But the problem is, many see this to be working and exactly it is working.
He believed the intervention of foreign troops and their withdrawal was long ago foreseen too. Referring to UPDF withdrawal,
“Kook dial yotho ro jok ba ye wang ka Mac.” loosely translates; push back all those were bought I will burns you with fire. To elaborate the coming of foreigner mercenaries fighting alongside Salva Kiir’s forces,
“Kuar dang nguan ni joor ti jal ka dech to kur ka bathdoori.” Loosely translates, still the four leaders are yet to come with hundreds and thousands of troops. The coming of UPDF, SPLM-North rebels, Justice and Equality Movement fighting alongside Juba regime was predicted long ago something a mathematician cannot calculates.
I ordered another cups of tea along with a roasted fish. We just went wild as he put more songs into the discussion. What moved my curiosity most is the fact that the old man was talking about the future withdrawal of UPDF troops out of south Sudan. He was not aware they are already leaving. When I informed him the UPDF are now going back home, he was filled with joys and happiness praising Ngundeng and blessing his name.
Now, for those who still want to reverse the version of Ngundeng prophecies that mentioned Dr. Riek Machar as a left-handed man with gapped teeth raising the flag of South Sudan. I sincerely should tell you that so far the prediction is being overcome by the imposed IGAD’s Compromised Peace Agreement. If you haven’t heard enough it is time to let you know that things are seriously going parallel.
Straight talks, if this peace process succeeds then it advisable for some of us to give up some of the versions we so much adored and accepted to be true. I am not inciting you to rejects some of these calculations you were told to have faith in since you were a child. No, but the truth is, men of wisdom sometimes go away from the much groomed theocracy set to dominant the minds of the revolutionaries.
For those who are thirsty in search for knowledge and have the ability to change the due course of the history and can provide a better version then the misleading existing system, are therefore the real dreamers. A man is real when he is not bond or slave to any kind of system set to attains the interest of the few probably leads like-gods-like. Loyalty to a leader entirely based on theocracy is self slavery.
Something else, those who dare to question the future cannot allow themselves to be sold or even bought. The world is in dear need of men and women, men and women whose loyalty; integrity to the truth is straight like a needle to a pole, men and women who cannot be bought or sold, men and women who can fight injustice and end it, men and women who questioned the unquestioned system. One day we shall all wake up in the morning and realized everything we put our trust on is a complete illusion.
There is something which made Ngundeng believers believed that this peace may not actually work. The latest Africa Union finding is useless accepting a well “coordinate act of killing and “state policy” that slaughtered thousands but failed to name the death of more than 28,000 or so innocents civilians of Nuer massacred as an act of genocide.
The truth is the world is too soft to condemn Salva Kiir. If it were so Uganda could not withdrew outside Bor to Juba. My brothers and sisters, Uganda is not going anywhere as alleged by some media houses. Uganda flag still hang high in Eastern Equatoria. Uganda People Defense Force is still loitering around South Sudan. Let me put it very clear, bringing south Sudanese together is not solving the south Sudanese problem. There is a possibility that in near future south Sudan as a country can go back to war. That is what I am talking about now. Discuss the roots cause of this current crisis to avoid any future problem. Otherwise the anger is not yet reduced.
Ngundeng was right, Salva Kiir will do anything everything to derails the implementation process something now I begins to question it reality.
This is the truth nothing else. With Juba in full control of Greater Upper Nile in exception of Greater Bieh, peace implementation process is difficult to be successful. What I mean is that, big cities in Greater Upper Nile are under control of Juba regime. Jonglie’s capital Bor is now under Juba, Bentui of Unity State is under Juba, Malakal of Upper Nile is under Juba still. To some extent, even the small towns like Nasir deep in Opposition control is under Juba. Curiosity will tells us that with this in consideration Juba cannot accept to implement peace process and this is where the calculations of Ngundeng believers’ claims seem extraordinarily real. The Opposition’s advance team going to Juba is not the end of the crisis. If you think so, then let us waits and see.
I don’t want to mention the situation in Unity State. Civilians are being put out of places each day and night. Government of Salva Kiir is committing gross human right atrocities in Unity State and the Opposition couldn’t protect the civilians there. Probably waiting the world to intervene, something I see even the astronomers couldn’t predict; no one is going to intervene. Opposition must protect the civilians from the branches of people committing all the crimes in Unity State.
The big problem is that, if the Governorship of Unity State is not given to Bul Nuer man or woman by the Opposition leadership, we have a long way to go in Unity State because sincerity tell us that, the 98 percent of Unity State is under control of Dr. Nguen Monytuil’s control. Failing to see this reality is making Ngundeng believers gain momentum. The war in Unity State is not yet coming to an end. I apology if the statement generalized Bul community somewhere here.
Something else to be put into consideration, South Sudan has 10 powerful SPLA Divisions across the country. Currently, according to some confidential sources, Gen. Malong Awan is filling up the gaps. I am talking about filling up the 70 percent defected SPLA soldiers. Days are gone when 70 percent of the army is made up of Nuer. All the divisions are rightly filled up and full with soldiers. Salva Kiir government is prepared enough to some extend can face any foreigners intervention against his government. In the face of this truth, people need no jokes at all. The song of defeating Salva Kiir and those mercenaries is mythical. History is written by the victors not those who win one day battle. America won a lot of battles in Vietnam but was defeated still at the end of the day and it was just fighting a hands full of nationalists.
I know that some people are not going to take this revelation with happy smiles. The truth is, truth hurt but very liberating. It is better for to be a victim and tells the truth then seeing thousands of others more perish under ignorance and illusion. If peace is to be achieves, freedom fighters must gains full control of Greater Upper Nile and threatens to march to Bar el Gazel, Juba or any other region under Juba regime. Or else the surrendering tactics is the last option we have; anyway it is not the first time in history.
As long as Juba sees itself the victor of this war, it is well establish fact to say the least, it will be difficult to see this peace coming into reality. Government in Juba sees this peace as a surrendering tactics for the Opposition under leads of Dr. Riek Machar rather than compromising for the sake of the people of South Sudan subjected to suffering and humiliation.
We now also have, a new rebel Movement Tiger Fiction New Force (TFNF) under Gen. Yoanes Okij and his comrades fighting for Chollo Kingdom. What I love about the Shuluk of south Sudan is that their unity is not easily uttered. For those who ignore the newly emerged rebellions fighting against creation of 28 states, then I should inform you, the Shuluk rebels leaders mean the business and will fight Salva Kiir government until further notice.
This too is going to make the implementation process difficult at least in the near future. And if this peace is going to be delays too, then it is pretty to say, the group of Gen. Peter Gatdet is going to gains ground too. Anything to block all these out in this peace process can highly be great. Deep in the heart of Juba regime, peace with the Opposition is not acceptable. They see this peace as rewarding Dr. Riek Machar. Something I see so much miscalculated. Those who see Dr. Riek Machar’s sympathy toward the government of Salva Kiir as a weakness should redefine the word “weakness”. He is a man whose attitude is to see south Sudanese lives in harmony and peacefully.
If the peace work, then it is better to say, IGAD’s compromise peace agreement are rightly against Ngundeng’s predictions.
Reach me via elbow.chuol@gmail.com
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