November 27, 2017 (SSB) — Naively, the IGAD underestimated the gov’t, but, with the benefit of two years hindsight, it looks pretty clear who carried the day between IGAD with their ARCISS, and President Kiir with his “Reservations”. The two sides, however, were too self-assuredly arrogant to pay attention to their differences and strike a compromise on those thorny issues; above all, IGAD was, and still is, not conscious to the fact that what counts in South Sudan is the barrel of the gun, not a signature on a piece of paper (Ask Uncle Abel Alier and his book). The dire consequences being visited on Junubeen is the current perpetuation of violence, with ARCISS resembling the proverbial Schrödinger’s cat–both alive and dead depending on the whims of the person in question. In fact, the current push for revitalization of the peace process (euphemism for renegotiation) and the so-called national dialogue (akin to the infamous Khartoum’s peace from within of the 1990s) are attempt to deal with “the facts” that have been created on the ground by the government in their pursuit to implement their “reservations” in opposition to the “dictated” ARCISS. Both the suffering Junubeen and the exiled Dr. Riek Machar are mere victims of this strange machination.