The SPLM-IO’s Problem with the 28 States
5 min readBy Mayen D.M.A. Ayarbior, Juba, South Sudan
January 31, 2016 (SSB) — The current impasse caused by the IO’s condition that links formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) with suspension of the 28 states is a typical case of the idiomatic ‘shooting the messenger’. Having championed the cause of federalism within the context of the ‘current’ civil war, the IO would surely have felt more triumphant if their envisioned 21 states had been accepted toady. Hence, “in principal” the SPLM-IO agree to formation of an overblown number of states in South Sudan, certainly more than twenty in number.
To the fair minded, the IO could not be outright intransigent in its argument that his proposal was rejected by every other institution and country involved in negations, including Juba, on the grounds that it (proposal) needed to be part of the constitutional making process. But whether through the door or window, the issue of federalism envisioned and promoted by many South Sudan, including the IO, have now become a reality – even if many may question the viability of their structures. The IO shouldn’t worry about who gets the credit as they will also be remembered for initiating the whole thing amidst this very juncture of resolving a civil war.
Notwithstanding who suggested and who implemented the idea, what is more worrying (perplexing) for the people of South Sudan is that this agreeable issue is now being cited as the main obstacle to the all-important step of getting a ‘unity’ government in Juba. A government that will not only start a much needed phase in the implementation of a volatile agreement, but more importantly get the country back on the stability and development track; receive huge pledges that could translate into infrastructural development and resettle hundreds of thousands of children and families that are dying in UN camps across the country.
As it stands, the IO chairman is stuck to the latest Pagak resolution, which was to cling to the agreement that was based on ten states. And even though, as a reasonable concession and gesture of goodwill, Juba has offered IO “all” gubernatorial positions in the states which have been curbed out of their allotted territory in greater Upper Nile, the IO is bent on fighting the whole saga out through the right channels before its Chairman steps foot in Juba. They have gone to our regional kingpin, President Museveni, and they are also taking the case to JMEC for a judgment which they wish will be “fair,” even though president Mogae sees the unnecessary saga in its right context as essentially a political rather than legal problem.
The rest of the world, including U.N, AU, IGAD, and Troika have taken a soft stand on the matter, falling short of calling it a non-issue. This could be seen in their approach of asking Juba to place a moratorium on the 28 states until everybody (meaning IO) is onboard, while at the same time urging the two parties to quickly form the eagerly awaited TGoNU without delay. In fact, while citing failure to form the unity government in Juba, a warning-like sanctions regime was presented at the UN Security Council the last week (January 2016).
Considering the different responses the controversial issue of 28 states is getting from peace partners and citizens, whether for or against their creation, Juba has gone ahead to deploy almost all governors to their posts. And as a show of intent, most Governors have now been sent to their states amid crowded receptions, with some taking a step further to form their cabinets and parliaments.
Whether we agree or disagree with the 28 states, they are quickly being made by ‘the government of the day’ a reality which will take much work to readjust or suspend. And for those in opposition, there is no better way of rolling back and readjusting such government actions than from within – i.e. by forming TGoNU with Dr. Riek as First [Executive] Vice President with powers to initiate policies and appoint 10 Minsters. Taking up those powerful positions in Juba, even without (initially) going to state levels since they didn’t agree with their existence, will show a character of compromise and statesmanship which Dr. Riek is at risk of losing the more he is seen as putting obstacles to his coming to Juba. To ‘the people,’ nothing is more important than forming TGoNU and seeing the 2013-2015 senseless civil war far in the dustbin of history.
In conclusion, the issues cited as preventing Dr. Riek from taking up his privilege (I hope we don’t see such positions as rights) are not insurmountable, including the 28 states. Whether they should first be included in the constitution before creation of TGoNU or included later is a matter of technical differences that should not stop the creation of that government.
In fact, asking for a constitutional amendment to accommodate the agreement is not so crucial since the agreement already supersedes our constitution by having a superior power of its own whether mentioned in the constitution or not. It is the agreement that is the force behind creation of TGoNU with all its power distributions, not the constitution. Hence, calling for constitutional amendments first is creating unnecessary dilemma as people expect a whole-sale change in the character of the constitution, which is a process that needs everyone onboard.
All-in-all, the people of South Sudan are so frustrated with the current situation that they have started questioning the very notion of patriotism being pumped day and night into their years. They are tired of the economic hardships into which they have been plunged, and pray to see the country stabilizing again. They are tired of the current disingenuous maneuvering by their political leaders, which are allegedly all done “for the people.” They are eagerly waiting for Dr. Riek to come to Juba to be sworn in and start his job. He shouldn’t expect everything signed in the agreement done without a political fight on his part, which should all be in Juba this time round.
Mayen Ayarbior has a Bachelor Degree in Economics and Political Science from Kampala International University (Uganda), Masters in International Security from JKSIS-University of Denver (USA), and Bachelor of Laws (LLB) from the University of London. He is the author of “House of War (Civil War and State Failure in Africa) 2013” and currently the Press Secretary/ Spokesperson in the Office of South Sudan’s Vice President, H.E. James Wani Igga. You can reach him via his email address: mayen.ayarbior@gmail.com.
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