By David Mayen Ayarbior, Juba, South Sudan
May 8, 2016 (SSB) — In my last article I tried to underline the complexity of an existential question which generated a rather unexpected short debate between Dr. Majak Agot and Dr. Lam Akol. It was on the former’s contention that South Sudan will not survive without the SPLM. He warned that the country will split along tribal lines if the SPLM disintegrates into factions. In theory he (Dr. Majak) relied on the 2013-2016 civil war as his empirical evidence.
To me, the short answer to the question above is a resounding ‘yes we can survive without the SPLM.’ However, my epistemological social scientist’s mindset cannot help but to qualify that answer. It should, thus, be placed within a framework of action which spans two decades of SPLM directed sociopolitical transition. The fact is simply that the other historic parties in the country had all but been totally absorbed in the SPLM/A which is actually an amalgam of all political forces in former Southern Sudan. Hence, any short-term (15-20 years) expected vacuum without the SPLM would be too big to be filled by other (20 or so) political parties who are virtually briefcase parties without history. Nevertheless, the other predicament is that: which SPLM are we even talking about? Is the party going to oversee the coming transition as a united front or as multiple factions of the same entity and does it really matter?
Considering that the current respite is consequent to the fact that the SPLM factions have decided to share power as separate entities in a “transitional” government that has been said to be representative of “national unity,” no one could say with certainty what the post 2018 political landscape is going to look like. Going by Dr. Majak’s contention, only two paths may lead to averting the probability of total state disintegration, the third undesirable option is a UN protract. Thus, the alternative to Balkanization (total disintegration) would be that either the SPLM reunites its factions solemnly swear to help ‘peacefully’ transition the state via a radical political transformation.
So far, there is almost a consensus among political analysts and politicians that the current SPLM factions in TGoNU are not going to genuinely unite their ranks and submit to the leadership of President Kiir. Therefore, only two kinds of people (novices and madmen) would place serious bets on the three factions backing the “Chairman’s” candidacy in the coming elections. Surely, at least two factions (SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO) will field two candidates to contest for President in the 2018 Presidential Election.
Given the bitterness with which the SPLM factions wrangled in 2013 as they paved way to one of the most destructive civil wars in Africa’s recent memory, it would take a political miracle to unite the party again. So many are praying for that miracle to happen, except for some realists who might want to see a South Sudan that can accommodate multiple SPLM factions (even if tribally based) without falling apart. Those are realists who would want everyone to work hard in building transitional institutions that might defuse the possibility of the country relapsing into wanton destruction of lives and property again. After all, it is wise for society to take steps back and create radically new forms of government when current systems proved inadequate to sustain peaceful coexistence and protect natural rights (“life, liberty, property, pursued of happiness”).
The first African context which we must embrace is that there is nothing unusual or dangerous about tribal coalitions in multi-ethnic nation states like South Sudan. Indeed, if a new political system is built on institutions rather than individuals, the probability of defusing the expected tension in 2018 could be high. If all the three factions have put South Sudan first, which ought to be the country’s new motto, the coming transition from a highly militarized state hijacked by warlord-ism towards a vibrant economy would not be a farfetched dream. It is do-able if South Sudan is put above individual interests.
The essential steps towards radical transformation of the state should be based on giving the word “transition” in the acronym TGONU a wider definition in a triangular framework. The first axis in the triangular framework is security sector transition, the second axis being political and electoral system transition, and the third axis is economic system transition. I will endeavor to expound and make proposals about the different issues on each axis in subsequent articles. Such proposals may include expansive DDR and demilitarization of society (eliminating warlordism) ; moving into a parliamentary system as opposed to the current presidential system as-well-as embracing the electoral college system for presidential and parliamentary elections; nationalizing some strategic sectors such as the telecom and agriculture industries and embracing public-private partnership in running others such as energy and transportation sectors.
To arrive at a viable post-transition state, the current agreement embodies various aspects which could collectively usher the country into a new era of political stability and economic prosperity. One such important aspect of the Agreement is demilitarization of towns, including Juba. If implemented honestly by the SPLM factions it would create a conducive environment for the other elements to be successfully fulfilled. Yet, placing something on the path to a destination is by no means a result of anything at all; it is just the beginning of a process – long or short. Hence, every logical analysis and emotional energy ought to be on examining how ‘the processes’ must reach its intended consequence.
Mayen Ayarbior has a Bachelor Degree in Economics and Political Science from Kampala International University (Uganda), Masters in International Security from JKSIS-University of Denver (USA), and Bachelor of Laws (LLB) from the University of London. He is the author of “House of War (Civil War and State Failure in Africa) 2013” and currently the Press Secretary/ Spokesperson in the Office of South Sudan’s Vice President, H.E. James Wani Igga. You can reach him via his email address: mayen.ayarbior@gmail.com.
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