The Specter of Dr. Riek Machar: Is it Fantasy or Prophesy?
6 min readBy David Mayen Ayarbior, Juba, South Sudan
September 2, 2016 (SSB) — To most honest analyst the recent events in Juba have created new dynamics with which the country must live for generations to come. This is not to undermine the effects of unimaginable wanton destruction caused by the civil war (2013-2016). In fact, what happened and is happening in Juba is a continuation of the same episode of the same civil war. It was like a bell which signals another round of a boxing match. The only, but stark, difference is that this is not a match. Millions of lives have already been destroyed, and it looks like the count may continue for a while. The match must reach its logical conclusion that is one man standing.
Yesterday’s peace partner, Dr. Riek Machar, who came to Juba through the doors of JIA decided to escape through jumping over fences and climbing trees. There are two narratives about why he had to choose that rout out, so soon as it were. One is ‘ours,’ those in government (call us IGs) which we must memorize and parrot according to the script. Whether you are an IG by blood or by association, you must have seen or heard the shooting at J1. In all countries of the world seldom do you hear or watch news of fighting in J1s, did you!? It only happens when there’s a military takeover of government, which we Latin speakers call ‘coup d’état.’
To be fair to us IGs, Dr. Riek had over deployed his soldiers (guards) whenever he went for a meeting with Number 1. It looked as if he was going to undertake a military operation in the bush. Doing that in a city like Juba (one of the fastest urbanizing cities in the world before 2013) made those who had celebrated his arrival more apprehensive than his arch enemies. At least the latter would not be caught off guard. The rest of citizens on the streets (wanainchi , as they are called by President Kenyatta who just concluded a historic visit to Juba) have either fled to a refugee IDP/POC camp or walked about shaking their heads as a sign of both disapproval and dismay.
There was no doubt in my small head that a pin drop was going to spark a fight one day. It was bound to happen whenever Dr. Riek attended the Council of good Ministers or at the collegial decision making trio of the Presidency. The fateful day of the pin-drop (D-day) happened to be at J1, of all places. What followed is now history. May their souls rest in a political peace even if they could not define the word political.
Apart from us in IGs and associates or sympathizers, some other people think that ‘our’ troops tried to take the PhD out of Dr. Riek’s soul. In their narrative, Dr. Riek could not wait to be buried under the rubble of his demolished house or wait at the outskirts of Juba for his meat to be fed to beasts. They have argued that unless one is a diehard IG or did not see the pictures of his swollen foot, there should not be any doubt that the man was seriously running for his dear life…again.
His supporters even think that the scenario and script of his latest running through dense equatorial forests – while being pursued by air and ground troops, is a material fit for a Hollywood blockbuster film. They might give it a long politico-spiritual title like “Fighting for Social Justice – A Tale of the 40 Days Fugitive.”
A film of an oppressed politician who was betrayed by everyone in his country except his foot soldiers and the oppressed masses (people who actually matter most). A film which the IO script concluded with a happy ending considering that the faithful (especially Christian) audience would be captivated by the mention of 40 days in the wilderness of Equatoria.
Coming back to the real world, if you think that was not real. Dr. Riek Machar has survived. He might be talking to the media as I am scraping through this notes trying to make sense. He would surely weigh his options, including calling for a show-of-force meeting in Pagak. A meeting whose purpose would be to depict his successor (H.E. Cde. Lt. Gen. 1ST VP Taban Deng Gai) to those who approved of his appointment, including the mighty America, as a raw deal. The will also touch his wounds as prove that he’s the chosen one.
And if we IGs and our American friends refuse to go to Addis or sponsor the next IGAD-Plus-Plus Talks, he might want to show on the ground all the military skills he acquired in a 40-days commandos course. He might even ask us IGs and our new found friends to name any town in Greater Upper Nile and he will storm it in a week, let the doubting Thomases try.
Otherwise, he will ask for his chair back. Yes, the one for which he fasted for 40 days and nights just like great Ngundeng’s baptism trial which he passed with an ‘A’. And since his is more a civil war than a political one, his supporters have written that he is coming back with an alliance of more mature politicians like his long term associate, Dr. Lam and protected by 4000 UN-backed battle hardened East African soldiers. They are now singing the specter of ‘Chairman’ is still alive and roaming over South Sudan and inside IG heads.
The dichotomy of this politico-military chaos is that: IOs believe that like Paul Kagame in Rwanda or Commandante Chavez in Venezuela who launched a failed coup (but Chairman did not) then got to power through the ballot and served everybody with all his heart, Dr. Riek will preach in all churchs and serve every citizen equally, including paying pensions to members of JCE.
We in IGs and associates call it fantasy, but they call it prophesy. The people call it deadly unpatriotic nonsense. Let’s hope there will be any man standing at the end of it all when the refugees start coming back home to rebuild their country again.
Mayen Ayarbior is a Lawyer, Political Economist, and International Security specialist. He is the author of: House of War (Civil War and State Failure in Africa). He could be reached at mayen.ayarbior@gmail.com.
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