SPLM-North and the fate of the Sudans (Part 1)
6 min readBy David Mayen Ayarbior, Juba, South Sudan
September 9, 2016 (SSB) — In his last trip to Khartoum the First Vice President, H.E. Taban Deng Gai, made it clear that South Sudan had decided to cease support to all armed elements that were currently fighting against Khartoum. He stated that he expected similar reciprocation from Khartoum. His (1st VP’s) policy statement must have pleasingly shocked Khartoum which had no option but to welcome it and hope that it represented the true intentions of the string-pullers back Juba. They went ahead with their own goodwill gestures such as taking concrete steps towards operationalizing the four freedoms agreement between the two countries as-well-as agreeing on a joint border patrol agreement.
At the backdrop of FVP’s policy statement laid a vicious civil war in his country and a protracted conflict in the New Southern Sudan (Angasana and Kurdufan) and western region of Darfur. The consequences of the civil war in both countries are evident in terms of massive deaths and human flight, both within and across their joint and international borders. Refugees are fleeing to South Sudan from Sudan continued to be in their hundreds of thousands. The reverse is also true. Hundreds of thousands are also fleeing from the southern border into Sudan.
To all intents and purposes, the two countries have established themselves to be sources of refugees who are fleeing oppression perpetrated against them by various forces, whether directly by armed elements and allied militias or indirectly through impunity. As a result, the two countries seem to be competing in international circles for the description of ‘rogue state’ where known and unknown gunmen as-well-as banditry and rebellions against both capitals have become the norms. Whether it is rape cases in Darfur or anywhere across the border in South Sudan, innocent civilians have continued to be on the receiving ends of untold atrocities.
Such undesirable status must have made string pullers in both capitals to start examining what might have gone wrong in The Sudans. Why has this huge and very rich geographical area in the middle of Africa turned into a big death trap? Why has the word Sudan become synonymous with mass suffering, civil strife, war crimes and crimes against humanity, human flights, and all negative descriptions? If the territory had been exclusively inhabited by wildlife it would have deserved the word ‘heaven.’ Now that it is inhabited by aggressive human species, that aggression has not been employed for construction or harnessing its natural blessings and sports. To millions in the area, it is ‘hell on earth.’
The objectionable facts above could alone provide a logical context for explaining why the offer was taken from Juba to Khartoum and why Khartoum should accept it without second thoughts and suspicion. Peace in The Sudan is imperative and of the essence. Peace will serve everybody, even the oppressed. Of course, one could argue that it is better to die with dignity than live in slavery. I agree.
However, will Khartoum’s economic and social oppression of other regions continue to be tantamount to slavery? If yes, let them continue the war of liberation. If no, then any autonomy should be more desirable than continuing with a war that is hurting Nuba, Bija, and Darfuri civilians more than the Shaigia or Ja’aliin of central Sudan. And if they take a leaf from South Sudan, they must bear in mind that their ‘revolutionary’ leaders might not even deliver social services when they get to power. That would make it a more worthless struggle in the context of autonomy than it is in that of full independence.
Thus, peace must be accepted by the SPLM-North because of some logical reasons. One, there is no one in the region to help them. South Sudan cannot help them even if it is willing to do so, simply because it has become an incapacitated state through its own self-inflicted wounds. It (asking for help) would be like asking help from a drowning man who might need more urgent rescue than the one who is asking for it. The least help SPLM-N could offer South Sudan at this dire condition is to either fight the war alone or make substantial compromises with Khartoum within some levels of autonomy.
One fact must be clear to all SPLM-N leadership, that is “Sudan will never be the same again.” When John Garang made that statement he knew that South Sudan was physically free while Nuba, Funj, Beja, Fur, Zaghawa, and even Arabs had been mentally transformed. It is this mental transformation and freedom which should now be the main ammunition for the marginalized Africans in Sudan. It is a weapon which is mightier than AK47s and PKMs.
Even if they accept to go and fight a political battle in one Sudan it would be a matter of time until they controlled Khartoum through the ballot. May be it will be the next generation which will naturally consist of more mature, educated, and sophisticated politicians. The war is not for individual positions in the central government; it is for the people of those regions to have better livelihoods.
Let it be a generational warfare with both military and civic phases. For practical reasons beyond our control and painful as it seems, the military phase is about to be concluded. The next phase must be a civic and political phase which must be ushered by the current SPLM/N leadership but not necessarily concluded by them.
As late Garang once advised this author in 1998 to drop military training and instead go to school because “it’s a generational revolution of many phases,” the wisdom behind that conception which he (Garang) reiterated in many other occasion was that armed revolution alone cannot be and end, it must be taken as a means to more noble socioeconomic goals such as services and good living for people at the grass roots.
Mayen Ayarbior is a Lawyer, Political Economist, and International Security specialist. He is the author of: House of War (Civil War and State Failure in Africa). He could be reached at mayen.ayarbior@gmail.com.
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