Has the International Community correctly calculated South Sudan’s situation in the post-Kiir era?
7 min readBy Ariik Atekdit Mawien, Juba, South Sudan
September 16, 2016 (SSB) — Most of the times when South Sudanese write against the intended invasion of their nation in the name of UN civilians’ protection force, they seem to be wrongly perceived as sightless supporters of the governing regime. And for that reason their ideas are ignored and never attended to by the so-called regional leaders and world superpowers while trying to quickly impose the coming of the 4000 UN troops into the country as if that would mark the end of the country’s problems.
The Africa Union (AU) as a continental political organization seems not to care about the pains and complaints felt and faced by some parts of its body. The African leaders mutely watch down the state of affairs in South Sudan as a lonely case and a prospect to create jobs and a forum to teach themselves participate in foreign and regional politics.
Biologically, the whole body is a one great system. I cannot for instance give up my finger or a toe to be eaten up by a stranger just because I know and guarantee that my neck is safe. For even a pain at the finger/toe cannot give an eye a chance to close and sleep and that will make the whole body remain unrest. I just don’t know what is wrong with the AU in the case of South Sudan?
Some presidents of the neighbouring African countries want to please the West in South Sudan’s political case in order to continue to rule their governments undisturbed by their Western allies and so they become more brothers to the people overseas in order to access western foreign aids and success of their next elections.
However, the coming of 4000 Strong forces into South Sudan with the open-ended mandate to use any necessary means against South Sudan is more than what the said-leaders assume and analyze on South Sudan and the region. If these 4000 UN troops are stationed in South Sudan, they will be surely used to overthrow various and several ruling regimes in Eastern Africa including the Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda and other governments that may arise to oppose western policies in the near future.
Again the heavy and permanent presence of a strong UN forces is going to give the West an upper hand in the region especially when Central African Republic and DRC have the United Nations Peacekeeping missions including the one in Darfur and now South Sudan. These heavy UN missions in Africa are not meant to bring peace but to cause uproar and chaos in order to weaken Africa as a continent.
First of all, the region and the west must understand that their abhorrence and strong and quick pin-down on President Kiir does not amount to the total sell out of the future of South Sudan and its people. The nation’s sovereignty and future cannot be tied together with the double interest of Kiir’s downfall and intently calculated regime change. What sense does it make to bring us UN troops to kill South Sudanese and change the regime and live the nation in mess?
Today we are seeing UK Parliament blaming their then Prime Minister David Cameron for the invasion of Libya which he (Cameron) supervised in 2011. The World Leaders and the said international community now wrap themselves up shying down on what they had erroneously planned and miscalculated 5 years ago in Libya.
Why would the United States and UK always dare to destroy nations and remain unquestioned? Iraq is now in chaos under their responsibility, Libya faces the same scenario while Syria struggles fighting against Islamic militants, who were organized, formed, funded and nursed by United States of America to make a regime change in Syria. Again now in the far eastern-central Africa, South Sudan becomes a new target. Why again here when a similar methodology has failed in Libya and Iraq?
Assume that 4000 UN troops are brought into South Sudan with the intention of removing the regime. What best alternative does the west have in hand for South Sudan? Who should be the next man to rule South Sudan and indeed to make it stable? Which political party now can claim to have embodied the interest of all South Sudanese into their visions and missions to rule without being faced by rebellions? I thought these South Sudanese politicians must be convinced to come together and make a consensus and plan to peacefully put together a country of their desire in the heart of Africa without foreign intervention forces. The coming of these troops is indeed a scratching of the aching wounds in the hearts of South Sudanese.
Peace is only possible if we can develop manpower that is with possible extensive education program and provision of health services and physical infrastructures so that we can engage the population and teach them the meaning of peace. Any friend of South Sudan should stop providing rebels with funds as well as blocking government officials from opening accounts in foreign banks.
The downfall and the unlawful killing of Maumur Gadaffi was celebrated with empty-handed by the western leaders today they are guilty for having done that without properly studying the real situations on the ground. Now they blame their miscalculations and mistaken presentation of the agenda.
If the same is repeating itself in South Sudan, then why shall the world always allow itself to be maneuvered by people that have no good political methodologies that can keep us in peace and make us a beautiful world altogether? Something must be wrong with the political science of the western world and their policy on Africa and Asia. It is not any correct to waste time and resources carrying out procedures of regime change that always result into the regional regrets.
My small judgment about South Sudan after Kiir is a total mess and an uncontrollable situation but not because there can be no any good President after Kiir. However, the reality will be if South Sudanese have not today accepted to work together and peacefully with President Kiir’s regime why do you think that they will cooperate with the upcoming president imposed by UN?
I am seeing that Kiir’s successor will not be like Garang’s successor. Garang’s successor was lucky to have been Kiir and this is what the world must correctly understand. Today we have the economic crisis in the country ruled by President Kiir and a rebellion that badly struggles to overthrow the regime and fail. What shall we assume to occur if President Kiir is humiliated, beleaguered and angrily sent out of office with his supporters? It may result into a situation we cannot control and may be more expensive to correct if the world dares to just like it today in Libya.
Most of the time the international community becomes eager of interference and fails to address the aftermaths that come as a result of their interferences in foreign politics. Sometimes the US miscalculates the world affairs when they take for granted that some countries in the world must be treated like they are states within the Republic of United States but they are misreading the democracy they claimed to have invented.
The US has got used to abusing or attacking the sovereignties and constitutions of other countries without respecting governments and people that elect those governments. They think that always American case must count more than anybody cases in the world but that is altogether not correct. Indeed if the recent policy of US on South Sudan is to overthrow the regime and remove President Kiir from office, they must sit down for homework that should create a new Libya in what is South Sudan of today.
You can reach the author via his email: Atekdit Mawien <ariqdudic@gmail.com>
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