The peril of predicting what the future holds for South Sudan
5 min readNo community nor society is exempted from all national rights, Revolution or any other
By Andrew Ngang, Egypt, Cairo
April 15, 2018 (SSB) — It is difficult to understand and predict what the future holds as our country is dealing with a wide variety of issues among of which are, tribal identities, economic crisis, and poor political orientation.
However, there has been a growing awareness among a number of intellectuals in South Sudan and Sudan that a political change cannot be isolated from social change, and that change in the group consciousness and behavior of people maybe symptoms of pervasive changes in institutions, custom, and attitudes.
We have experienced a constant frustration from those who are trying to understands the present in South Sudan as well as we are triggered by traumatic or energizing events such as Sudan civil war, as to dramatic 2013 war in S.Sudan whatever the experience might be.
Therefore South Sudanese society is alive with conflicting moods and contradictory perspectives and all are seeking a way of engendering a political relevant social movement (party) that would revitalize and strengthen the social order of the civil population in all aspects.
There is a need of peaceful revolutionary pressures that search for durable solutions to a widens problems which are endangering the social well being of South Sudanese and to establish a new life order of solving social, economic and political problems in socially and culturally in an acceptable manner.
Because when the development of political institutions is able to keep pace with the demands placed by the public on the system and when the institutions ( system) are adaptable, the result is social order and good governances.
Yet when political institutions are unable to keep pace with social and economic on a positive change, remember! Political decay is the only result.
Hence a political decay indicates that existing gov,t institutions have lost their capacity to process public demands and maintain order by resorting to force approach method.
Dear all, one can argue that such changes and dilemmas are the products of social pressures and tension but they can be best understood through an examination in which society, institutions are structured and oriented at both national and local government in the country which has a huge roles both in implementation of government public policy and in confronting political, economic and social change.
In my own point of view, our society can be constructive in this regard:
It should be a system in which institutions lag behind rising demands for participation others called it a praetorian society —creates situations in which social forces confront each nakedly without the benefit generally accepted, routinized intermediary bodies.
“A praetorian situation is potentially useful but not necessarily revolutionary. on the one hand, it might continue to muddle along in a political uncertainty with the structure of state systems in a partial decay or it might succumb to revolutionary upheaval leading to a complete restructuring of the system for the benefit of all.
Furthermore, When political systems are able to handle the demands placed on them, both demands and systems remained cordially at equilibrium when they cannot the result is destabilization.
Therefore the revolution is the possible result of destabilization in any country or system.
In tracing the causes of violence and tensions or Revolution in South Sudan, there are few factors that need our special considerations:
first:; Revolutions are most likely when a prolonged period of economic growth’ with associated rising expectations is followed by a sudden economic downturn with associated frustration I.e 2012 austerity measures, this created a widening gap between high expectations and actual benefits which mobilizes the discontented and fuels destabilization
Second: there was a change in the relationship between social classes and various communities by the mobilization of important new strata in political arena such class, groups acquire new identities are often characterized by a widening rift between rulers and ruled.
This leads to increased demands on the systems and intensified pressure for political participation.
The third uniformity is the desertion of régime by the intellectuals and other public figures who abundance the ruling regime.
Fourth, 2013 defection signifies and often ensure articulate and more focus on political opposition and chased a huge abundance of Juba regime.
Nothing is certain but death and taxes proclaim an old adage ( proclaim to be certain) but in recent decades, South Sudanese politics has turned this aphorism on its head, nowadays, the surest route to political death is to raise taxes and hard currency rate.
Our economic situation reveals that South Sudan experienced a great combination of rampant inflation, climbing foreign debts and trade deficit which imposed the citizens into a new hardships
To recover from all what hindering our country,the Government of South need to change public and international relationship by giving and endorsed of all Oil refineries contracts to American for beneficial changes instead of China , I hope South Sudan would be like Republic of Saudi Arabia and will be leading country among other African Nations, the policy play a big part of much broader efforts to make the economy , education, health and political atmosphere more competitive.
The present deterioration in the economy has led directly to a decline in public confidence in the government because the political atmosphere and popular morale are noticeably worse than they were in few years ago.
The public mood has deteriorated over the four year of conflict as the living standards of many strata of society have stagnated as well as confidence in the leadership has dwindled, now the public is seeking and demands for change in all aspects
They even predict more pressure and war if it means to bring peace, economic stability, and good governance.
Good Luck to all of you..
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