Politics of Rebellion: Why are SPLM Cadres Rebelling in Droves?

By Madit Them Arop, Juba, South Sudan

Monday, November 25, 2019 (PW) — Why do cadres rebels from SPLM and end up forming their own parties? This question is being asked globally by those who desired to see the baby nation grow to its fullest expectation. Evidence suggests that the nature behind rebelling agenda applies to political positions and political mistreatments within the system. Historical background proves that all who picked up arms, 99.9% were cadres from SPLM who disagreed with leadership on political platforms. The rebelled class argued that they have been given unfair treatment, like Late Gen. Athor and Gen. David Yau Yau, who felt the 2010 General Elections had deep “irregularities” with fraudulent mess injected into the elections’ system.

Still other politicians are angered by way of removal and had guts to question the authority itself. Dr. Riek and Former Detainees (FDs) are leading examples. The result of frustrations and mistreatments in the “poor system” had brought the interest group to hold meetings in dark corners, strategizing on how to topple the sitting government. The FDs were said to had proposed that the government would eventually “let go” the seat if the public is convinced to stage the streets in protest, and the outcome of the protest will prove to the world that the government is unwanted and must go!

The other report said there was combustible disagreement over the FDs’ strategy considered “slow and undoable” within an era reasonable.  With time, however, it was revealed that the FDs maintained demonstration idea, and for some unclear reasons whilst the acceptable direction was being debated within the group, the war erupted on 15 December 2013, a situation no sides held responsible for the “first bullet” fired in Presidential Guard Division: The Tiger.

The unhappy politicians faced a hard wall between the government displayed on public screen as “failure” and fear of consequential actions dragged the baby nation into the civil war. The Former Detainees (FDs) were caught in the process and jailed (a pinpoint where they inherited the names) while the Dr. Riek’s group left to the bush. But both still had one agenda to topple the government after the release of the Detainees or else, their interests should be under consideration.

The root cause of the “untidiness” came about as a result to presidential decree which “sacked” the cabinet on 23^rd July 2013 and appointed new group perceived as with “doubtful” faces. Majority among those dismissed including Dr. Riek felt bad about new faces who took up the cabinet. The “SPLM Leaders,” as they liked to call themselves, sensed the party has been “hijacked” and per se, they should fight on to reclaim their presence not only in the government but also in the party.  

The country entered into another painful era with sign of no-return to unity or stability, so the mediation approach turns out to be the solitary hope to peaceful restoration.

As Addis agenda of negotiation kicked on, the “angered” politicians’ interest was to win political seats in the government such that the “stormy politics” continues within. Addis’ effort didn’t guarantee peaceful co-existence, the resistance over scattered troops in the hands of politicians and generals has become another obstacle. Random forces uncontained and dispersed along divide and rule tribal lines uphold the spot in the polarized army where generals and politicians have commanding roles over fraction of units managed and paid for independently; this leads to doubt on the loyalty of the SPLA/SSPDF as a national army.

Taking COPRA FACTION of David Yau Yau and AGWELEK of Jonhson Olony’s forces as simple examples, it clearly shows the commissioning of forces has never been unified in the country. And as such, it is an indication of possible incessant rebelling agenda because power lays with the generals or the politicians in the barrel of the guns. Reports also proved that whenever the political crisis erupted in the country, parties in charge of the conflict failed to take responsibility of their own issues, and instead opted for a refer to a third party subjected to uncontrollable escalations.

Addis, to which political cases are referred to, is seen doing very little in resolving the South Sudanese problems, and group unsatisfied with the outcome sometimes look at the mediation process with different lenses of interpretation. They even accused the IGAD and the AU of “bragging,” as they points out that the outcome is almost always with dissatisfaction and the way forward has continuously been gloomy. In other instances, sickened transparency become an issue repeatedly cited along with failure to address the actual issues and instead new factors are discovered found their way in into the negotiation dish. The complaints are high in the tunnel of procedures; this gives heavy heads to the role of the IGAD and the AU administering’s direction.

Yet, why they keep going to Addis? What motivated them? To answer this part is to look into delayed protocols which leads to disruption of the process as a whole or in part. And in part, Addis grant positions and in whole, going to Addis keeps the practice intact. As noted, after peace is signed, parties are urged to silence the guns and to follow the agreement’s requirements. One of the requirements is the integration of forces. With time, nevertheless, new activities erupted prior to integration of forces, like the “J1 dog fight” conflict in July 2016, which halt the implementation process of Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS).

The result of this grants the distrustful class to cling onto their units for self-protection as the situation dictates, and precisely, the national army providing protection is not trusted by commanders or politicians with independent units. They feel the national army is not representing all tribes even though 80% of the current army was established on voluntary basis. And therefore, the politicians and commanders demands for equal representation of all 64 tribes or else, they stick to have commanding roles over the tribal units brainwashed independently.

The future for the bled nation host unchangeable horrific hit-and-run tribal political injustice inserted into the system with the reported claim that it is being done with “intend” to keep cycle of elites in power. It’s illustrated as well that those who turned arms against the government and ones who used divide and rule political card agenda are riding on the same horse of interest and differ only on severity comes with gun’s barrels as alluded from public perspectives.

However, it’s crystal clear that the gun’s barrels have strong influence to push for regaining the extinct positions through Addis political negotiation processes. Dr. Riek, Gen. Yau Yau, Former Detainees and others had been through this processes and result indicated that it had granted them with positions.  Gen. Malong and Gen. Cirillo, on the same note, have decided to pick up arms as per day today political nature of South Sudan. The IGAD and the AU have requested for their involvement in the Revitalized (R-ARCSS) peace process but the government objected the proposal, arguing that both Gen. Cirilo and Gen. Malong were part of the sitting government when the ARCSS was signed in 2015.

The government’s unwillingness in paying much attention to the National Salvation Army (NAS) of Gen. Cirilo and the South Sudan United Front (SSUF) of Gen. Malong political parties is seen as a disturbing by-product of shock across the country; their retaliatory actions are believed to have led to random killings on major roads such as Nimule, Bor and in former Northern Bahr El Ghazal State (Majok Nyinthiou), which both parties claimed to be the ones responsible.

Based on analytical views, the parties’ interests are to be accommodated like their colleagues, if not, the butchering exercise on the innocent civilians is unstoppable perhaps until their interest is met.

Gen. Pagan New Party and Its Fate

The same logic Gen. Cirilo and Gen. Malong applied and others have intuitively pushed Gen. Pagan to form his own party. The leverage to form a new political party mulched with change agenda tool is a repetitive practice not ever gets old in South Sudan politics.  The question being asked is, will the REAL SPLM have independent principles not of an SPLM origin? The idea here is understood as a way to rejoin the SPLM with scenario to energize political accommodation target!  

This time, a comeback may be for unity and betterment of the country. Still, in public mind, the REAL SPLM Party could have no future with intended transformation. Multitude of doubts have indicated that a new party should have objective meant to bring real change, but sticking to the same SPLM “soiled” with insults and failure of its leadership is an indication of a blunt case. Others envisioned on the claim as an opportunity to give “dynamism” to the general amnesty policy virally practiced in the country. But to freeze amnesty policy, in others’ view, it is advised and admired that justice is exploitable to replace amnesty policy for better judicial process, to serve as a promoting factor for informed legal procedures.

The Realistic Truth on Rebelling

Crux of the matter is, most of the sent home politicians and generals on reserved list have no pension plan established by the state such that the retired citizens enjoy while at home. To remain general on active list and politician by right, resistance has become not just an option but one of the only ways factored into the rebellions’ inclined, a ticket sustainable for public life. In other words, with No Pension Plan then the rebellion has replaced the superannuation gap embraceable by every cadre with an “iron fist!”

Factors like self-protection, community protection, promotion of junior cadres within the ranks, feedings with silver spoon, and critical idea that it’s time for others to lead are ingredients packed in the rebelling agenda.

Political analysts have recalled that such motive had once led to Dr. Riek, Mama Nyandeng de Mabior, and Gen. Pagan to declare their interest in running for SPLM Chair and perhaps for the presidency of South Sudan prior to 2013 eruption. And as a matter of political game, both have fallen out with President Kiir administration over the package of issues in 2013, a situation later developed into the skirmish baptized by the government as “coup” and “denied” in opposition camp being not true.

Conclusion:

In summary, amnesty policy is considered destructive to some extend that it encourages every politician to pick up arms with intend to seek for positions, forgiveness and be promoted. The policy coincides with rebelling agenda used widely as a means for retrieval or gaining new positions. This analysis attempts to stress on why rebellion becomes a repeated practice in the country which never gets old.

It proposed justice over amnesty to be given a chance to exercise its judicial role to correct injustices in the system. It also stressed not only are politicians and generals interested in uprising activity but are forced by the situation where state never prepared those to retire with pension plan packages. Others have no faith in the national army of SPLA/SSPDF, they feels some tribes haven’t been represented, which is one of the reasons majority of the commanders stick to have independent units.

Viewing also at the new party formed by Gen. Pagan, it raised doubts that the transformation agenda is a dead case, there isn’t future exist to transform, the truth is on accommodation target, and that would be the fate of the REAL SPLM Party.

All this summed up to help prove that cadres’ rebels to gain new positions or be able to regain the vanished positions, which helps in creating window for forgiveness as they aims to get promotions as a means to political masculinity subjected to correcting the mistreatments and disrespectful ways considerate in the removal proclamations. Still, politicians-generals stick to their trained units due to abrupt sackings, a situation worried them at most.

So rebelling is a tool used by cadres to threaten the system to never think of removal option, if it’s done while the army is not unified and contained under one central command and no national pension plan systemized, (while the great number of the brainwashed citizens take in the politicians/commanders interest to be community or tribal interest), then it would be consequential to the leadership and to state as a whole since power lays in political tribal lines, in regional agenda, in politicians’ interest, a situation turned into community interest lifeline, and precisely, in the barrel of the guns.

Author is reachable at aropmadit@gmail.com

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