By Malith Kur, Montreal, Canada
Monday, June 08, 2020 (PW) — The allegation of building an Egyptian military base at Pagak in South Sudan is undoubtedly a mind-boggling idea to ordinary South Sudanese. Still, they say that there is no smoke without fire. So, let us assess three possible scenarios in which this allegation might have emerged.
First, we can treat it as a conspiracy theory arising from local political actors. These local political actors may want to win sympathy from Ethiopia to support their political activities in South Sudan. Second, we may evaluate the allegation in the context of recent military and political developments in the region, which involve Turkey.
Lastly, Egypt is likely trying to intimidate Ethiopia to stop the building of the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. In my view, one of these scenarios is likely behind this allegation.
Egyptian Military Base at Pagak, a local Conspiracy Theory
This allegation is possibly a local conspiracy theory. Should that be the case, there is no truth to this allegation. There are many possible reasons why the local conspiracy theory does not mean anything in this case. South Sudan cannot afford to stab Ethiopian people on the back.
South Sudanese now have their political freedom because of Ethiopian support. No one in Juba has forgotten that. Regardless of what assistance South Sudan receives from Egypt, it is not equivalent to what Ethiopia offered to South Sudan. Ethiopia stood with South Sudanese during the second Sudanese civil conflict without hesitation.
Therefore, South Sudan does not have any incentive to allow Egypt to build a military base at Pagak that would threaten Ethiopian security. The allegation makes little sense in this context.
Furthermore, it would be improbable for the South Sudanese government to permit Egypt to establish a military base at Pagak, given a delicate political condition it invokes. Look at the map below and see the Pagak region in red. It is right at the Ethiopian border.
That would suggest that if there were any conflicts between Egypt and Ethiopia because of the dam, they would be fought inside South Sudan. South Sudanese cannot accept that to happen, for it would endanger their security.
Although I do not have any proof, I take this news as malicious propaganda emanating from local South Sudanese political actors trying to win Ethiopian support. Politicalopportunists such as Thomas Chirilo and others are taking cover in Ethiopia but without military support.
They tried without success in the period leading to the signing of the revitalized peace agreement to lobby Ethiopia’s Government to support their project. Still, they did not get anything. But they have continued to believe that Ethiopia would one day help them since they want to implement the model of Ethiopian ethnic federation in South Sudan.
These groups can create this allegation, hoping that Ethiopia would believe them and give them political and military backing they need to pursue their agenda. This scenario is likely but not necessarily possible.
When we look at the situation at a different angle, we discover that South Sudan is neutral. It neither opposes nor supports the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam. The dam does not affect South Sudan directly; however, South Sudanese may benefit from the hydropower that it may generate in the future.
For this reason, South Sudanese would not host a force that might potentially attack the dam. In addition to that, South Sudanese do not want to see Egyptian soldiers on their soil because of Egypt’s association with the Jonglei Canal. So, Egyptian soldiers are not welcomed in South Sudan, and the regime in Juba knows this very well.
More importantly, South Sudanese do not want to be a part of any regional war. They have already had enough share of conflicts in their country.
Egyptian Military Base at Pagak and Libyan Situation
This allegation is likely related to the situation in Libya. The old Ottoman Turks’ colonial ambitions are surfacing again in Northeast Africa. Turkey has sent soldiers to Libya under the pretext of supporting the United Nations-recognized government in Tripoli. This development has stirred up military tension between Egypt and Turkey. These two countries currently support opposing sides in Libya.
It is said that Africa has failed to restore peace and stability to Libya after Gaddhafi’s fall. This failure has allowed people who have often wanted to make illicit gains in the continent to come back with their malicious intentions.
The Turks, the former colonial slave trade merchants, have come back to Africa to create even more problems in the continent in the twenty-first century. They want to use the situation in Libya to undermine African solidarity with the Libyan people.
Indeed, the political and military instability in Libya is bad for Africa, but the worse is to have the Turkish Islamic fundamentalists on the African shores to destabilize further the political situation in the North and East Africa region. The region is already facing a trust deficit as Ethiopia is moving forward to complete the building of the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.
But as far as Africans are concerned, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have been engaged in a constructive dialogue to discuss potential environmental issues associated with the Grand Renaissance Dam. We know that they will find an amicable solution to any problem that arises in the discussion about the dam. Therefore, in the African view, military escalation is unnecessary, for it does not come with gains but more destruction.
However, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has likely entered the political equation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam because of the situation in Libya. He may want to punish Egypt for the alleged support it provides to the rebel general in Eastern Libya.
Another reason that would lie behind this propaganda is that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not happy about the reversal of the Islamists’ project in Egypt. He wants to revive the failed political agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood under the former President Mohamed Morsi.
For Erdogan to achieve the above goals, he wants to use the situation in Libya and promote military tension between Egypt and Ethiopia. That tension may create problems in Egypt that would lead to regime change in favor of Islamic movement. This scenario is likely, but it may not be a real driving force behind this allegation.
Regional Politics and the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam
The possible last scenario is that Egypt may want to intimidate Ethiopia to abandon the dam. It may wish to drag South Sudan into this mess to convince the rest of the world that the region would stand with Egypt.
Hence, Ethiopia must stop building the dam, or it would face international and regional isolation. I think this scenario is what driving the allegation of the Egyptian military base at Pagak.
But, likely, none of these scenarios will ever force Ethiopia to abandon the project. The Grand Renaissance Dam stands as a symbol of national pride in Ethiopia. It would be a diplomatic and political humiliation for the Ethiopian government to cancel a project that Ethiopians have considered as an essential part of their long-term economic development.
Whatever the case might be, Egypt will not build a military base anywhere in South Sudan. What it needs to do is toabandon its reliance on colonial treaties and military threats. The colonial agreements no longer worth anything in the twenty-first century Africa, and military threats will not deter the Nile basin countries from using their share of water resources for economic development.
But I believe that the upstream countries are ready to dialogue with Egypt on how to share the Nile’s water for the mutual benefit of all the African people living along this great river. A conspiracy theory is not necessary because it will not change anything, but constructive regional dialogue will.
The author, Malith Kur, is a Ph.D. candidate at McGill University in Montreal, Canada. His research focuses on the patterns of cooperation between the churches, African indigenous religious institutions, and the state for peacebuilding, reconciliation, and social reconstruction of South Sudan. Kur’s previous research examined the Christian contribution to the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission as a possible model for peacebuilding in South Sudan. He can be reached @ malith.kur@mail.mcgill.ca.