Why Warrap State Political Elites are Divided over President Kiir’s Succession Strategy
WARRAP STATE ELITES DIVIDED OVER SUCCESSION STRATEGY TO REPLACE PRESIDENT SALVA KIIR
By Warrap Patriots for the Unity of the SPLM
Kuajok, Warrap State, South Sudan
16/12/2023
Introduction:
We the Warrap Patriots who are members of the SPLM Party are alarmed by the internal succession warfare that has rocked Warrap State’s elites and divided them into three factions. One group is led by the Director General of the Internal Security Bureau (ISB), Gen. Akol Koor Kuc, who has a progressive approach to how the Warrap military and political elites should retain power after the demise of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. The second group is led by Nhial Deng Nhial who believes that the SPLM Party leadership hierarchy should be respected. He reasons that should President Salva Kiir expire in the future, James Wani Igga, who is the heir to the throne, would be persuaded to appoint him as his Vice President. The third group is composed of Warrap elders led by former Governor Aleu Ayieny Aleu who is advocating for the return of Riek Machar to be the 1st Deputy Chairman of the party who will automatically become the running mate of President Salva Kiir in the upcoming election in December 2024. This group believes that Riek Machar could be controlled by them after becoming President following the demise of President Kiir.
The reason for us to bring this to the attention of the people of South Sudan in general and members of the SPLM, in particular, is that the machinations of the three factions to ensure that Warrap’s military and political elites control power and resources after the demise of President Salva Kisaisot only detrimental to the unity of the party but also a recipe for the ignition of another war in the country.
The succession debate was ignited recently by the repeated public embarrassments where President Salva Kiir Mayardit appeared on many international occasions disoriented and could not read his speech and was unable to put his earpiece into his ear as it happened in Moscow. The Warrap military and political elites are frightened by the speedy cognitive decline of the President. Because of that, many already concluded that he has no energy left to continue ruling the country for more than three years.
Therefore, the question of who should be President Kiir’s successor after the election of December 2024 has preoccupied Warrap’s military and political elites because they are worried about their future should the next successor be somebody they could not control to theirerties and wealth? The mission to find a successor whom they can manipulate so that the Warrap elites protect their ill-gained wealth and privileges is the goal of the three factions. However, their bone of contention is whether Warrap military and political leaders should rely on the strategy of Gen. Akol Koor Kuc Nhial Deng Nhial, or Aleu Ayieny Aleu. They all agreed in principle that President Kiir’s natural demise is imminent and given his state of health, he is living on borrowed time.
I. The succession strategy of Gen. Akol Koor’s faction
The concern for President Kiir’s health and his potential mortality has become a preoccupation for the high-ranking military officers in the National Security Service (NSS) and Tiger Republican Guard. Since the beginning of this year, Gen. Akol Koor Kuc and Gen. Lual Wek Gum (AKA Lual Maroldit) have been having serious discussions about the future of Warrap elites and their ill-gained wealth and properties should President Kiir expire and a non-Dinka succeeds him as per constitutional rules.
In February, the Commander of the Tiger Republican Guard, Gen. Lual Wek, was tasked to consult Spear Masters in Warrap State who could predict with accuracy the year President Salva Kiir would expire. He traveled to Warrap and met two powerful Spear Masters who told him that President Salva Kiir would naturally expire at the end of 2025.
After reporting the findings to the committee of Warrap military leaders including Gen. Akol Koor, the group began to brainstorm strategies for succession. Gen. Akol Koor proposed that James Wani Igga should be democratically replaced as SPLM 1st Deputy Chair by Joseph Bangasi Bakosoro because, should Wani Igga become the President after the death of President Salva Kiir, he would pick Gen. Kuol Manyang Juuk as his Vice President.
Gen. Akol Koor believes that the only way somebody from Warrap could be a Vice President is when Joseph Bangasi Bakosoro becomes the running mate of President Kiir in the 2024 election. For that to happen, certain steps should be taken to realize the project. First, Bakosoro should become the Minister of Presidential Affairs to engineer the impeachment of the Speaker Jemma Nunu Kumba. Once the current Speaker is impeached, therefore, Bakosoro will become the Speaker. Once he is a Speaker of TNLA, he will vie to become SPLM 1st Deputy Chair in the upcoming SPLM Convention in April 2024. With financial and political support from Greater Bhar-el-Ghazal, Gen. Akol is contented that Bakosoro would win the SPLM nomination to become the 1st Deputy Chair of the SPLM Party and the running mate of President Salva Kiir in the Si2.ls brought together a group of Equatorian politicians calling themselves the “Progressive Equatoria Group”. This group is composed of Joseph Bakosoro, Governor Louis Lobong, Alfred Lado Gore, Joseph Ngere, Africano Monday, Augustino Jadalla, and others. The Progressive Equatoria Group reached a deal with Gen. Akol Koor and his group that, should Bakosoro become the President after the demise of President Kiir at the end of 2025 as predicted by the Spear Masters, he would pick him as his Vice President. With the military backing from the NSS and the Tiger Republic Guards, any opposition from James Wani Igga and Kuol Manyang Juuk within the SPLM would be quashed.
II. The succession strategy of Nhial Deng Nhial’s group
The group led by Nhial Deng Nhial is fundamentally opposed to the strategy of Gen. Akol Koor and his group for one important reason. His group believes that since the death of Dr. John Garang in July 2005, succession to the SPLM Party throne has been based on hierarchy. Currently, James Wani Igga is the 1st Deputy Chair of the SPLM and the potential running mate of President Kiir in the 2024 election. Encouraging Bakosoro to unseat him in the next SPLM Convention, as Gen. Akol Koor and his group proposed, would politically destabilize the SPLM and weaken the party before the election.
The group of Gen. Akol’s disagreement with the group of Nhial Deng is on whether Wani Igga would appoint somebody from Warrap as his Vice President should he become the President after the demise of President Kiir in 2025. Nhial’s argument of hierarchy is being challenged by Akol’s group as detrimental to the interests of Warrap because, if respecting hierarchy is the norm as argued by Nhial Deng, there is no way Wani Igga would pick anybody other than Kuol Manyang Juuk as his Vice President because he is his deputy in the SPLM. Gen. Akol and his group are completely right that Mr. Igga would pick Kuol Manyang as his Vice President if he becomes the President.
However, Nhial Deng and his group challenged Gen. Akol Koor and his team by arguing that Wani Igga could be coerced to appoint him as the Vice President because the NSS and Tiger Republican Guards are commanded by Warrap sons. Wani Igga doesn’t have forces to dictate the terms of who should be his Vice President if confronted by NSS and Tiger Republican Guards. Coercing him to appoint Nhial Deng as the Vice President is possible if Warrap factions work together. Unfortunately, Gen. Akol’s differences with Nhial Deng couldn’t make it possible for them to work together in the future to the extent he would support Nhial to be the Vice President of Wanni Igga after the demise of President Kiir.
III. The succession strategy of Warrap Dinka elders led by Aleu Ayieny Aleu
The group of Warrap elders composed of Aleu Ayieny Aleu (former Governor of Warrap State), Agasio Akol, Bona Bang Dhel, Henry Kuany, and Akol Tong argue that there are no steps taken by the government to establish key benchmarks and safeguards for holding credible elections in December 2024. The only way to hold a flawed election that would give President Salva Kiir legitimacy in the eyes of the international community is for Riek Machar to become his running mate in the December 2024 election. For that to happen, a unification process between the SPLM-IG and the SPLM-IO must take place before July 2024. The process would entail reinstating Dr. Riek Machar back to the SPLM as the 1st Deputy Chair of the Party to pave the way for him to become the running mate in the next election.
Both groups of Gen. Akol Koor and Nhial Deng Nhial are opposed to the position taken by the Warrap Jieng Council of Elders led by Aleu Ayieny to return Riek Machar e SPLM because such an attempt would polarize the party. It was the SPLM Liberation Council that nominated and endorsed James Wani Igga as the 1st Deputy Chairman of the Party replacing Riek Machar this year. Any unilateral attempt by the Chairman of the Party to reinstate Riek Machar as the 1st Deputy Chairman without convening a session of the SPLM Liberation Council would indeed divide the party.
Aleu Ayieny and his group predicated their argument on the fact that for President Kiir to compete against Riek Machar in the next election, politicalpoliticapoliticallydked. The credibility of the December 2024 election, if Riek Machar runs against President Kiir, hinges on the degree of democratic and political space that the government will guarantee for SPLM-IO and key civic and political actors. As the situation stands, the SPLM-IG has no political will to ensure that political benchmarks are met to conduct a credible election that would reflect the will of South Sudanese.
Aleu Ayieny and the Dinka elders argue that the SPLM-IG will not guarantee a level playing field and provide security for Riek Machar and members of the SPLM-IO to campaign freely. For instance, they pointed to the fact that Riek Machar himself is basically in a city arrest and he is not allowed by President Kiir to leave Juba.
The easiest route to conduct an election that the international community would recognize and accept is to make Riek Machar a running mate of President Salva Kiir to avoid a conflict between the two main signatories that have deadly armed groups. If Riek Machar joins forces with President Kiir in December 2024, there is no real opponent that could defeat them in a free and fair election.
As the Jieng elders argue, besides the technical and legal preparations, it is pertinent to remember that the December 2024 election is intended to enhance stability in South Sudan, end violence and consolidate peace. Any competition between Gen. Salva Kiir’s SPLM-IG and Dr. Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO would increase the risk of a return to violence because they envisage a “winner takes all” outcome. For that reason, the safest way to avoid the outbreak of a new conflict is for both Riek Machar and Salva Kiir to form one ticket to run in the election.
IV. The possibility of a coup taking place before the December 2024 election
There is a credible report that President Salva Kiir has accepted the proposal of the Warrap Jieng Council of Elders to reinstate Dr. Riek Machar as the 1st Deputy Chairman of the SPLM Party. A secret negotiating team is formed by both President Kiir and 1st Vice President Riek Machar to confidentially discuss the modalities of unity between the SPLM-IG and the SPLM-IO. The side of President Kiir is represented by Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel while Dr. Riek Machar is represented by Puot Kang Chol (the Minister of Petroleum).
Both teams agreed that, after the conclusion of negotiations and the terms of reunification, the Chairman of the SPLM-IG, Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, would issue party executive orders reinstating Dr. Riek Machar and several SPLM-IO members to the SPLM Party’s organs by March 2024.
The unilateral reinstatement of Dr. Riek Machar and his group to the SPLM in 2024 would not bode well with the majority of members of the SPLM Party. The majority of Dinka and all Equatorian factions would not support such a unilateral move from the Chairman of the Party. For Equatorians, it would be another betrayal from a Dinka leader to cede the rightful position of Equatorians to Riek Machar. In 2001, after the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) signed a declaration of unity with Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SPDF) in Kenya, Cdr James Wani Igga was compelled by Dr. John Garang to give up his position to accommodate Riek Machar.
It would of course be unacceptable for Equatorians to experience another political humiliation for Riek Machar to be reinstated back to the SPLM at the expense of James Wani Igga as it happened in 2001. Following the war of 2013 and 2016, the majority of Dinka military and political elisupportedatorians in opposing the unilateral reinstatement of Riek Machar to the SPLM. The two Equatorian factions of James Wani Igga and Joseph Bakosoro will unite against such a move.
Knowing the Modus Operandi of President Salva Kiir, he would continue to unilaterally reinstate Riek Machar back to the SPLM without regard to the democratic will of party members. This will allow the army to stage a coup against President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar. Based upon the public psychology of South Sudanese at present, a military coup would be warmly welcomed with flowers because they realized that they have no viable future under the leadership of Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit and Dr. Riek Machar. The only legacy the two men gave to the people of South Sudan is wars, human rights abuses, and suffering. Whoever topples them would receive a hero welcome.
The international community in general and Africa in particular would tacitly support the coup. Every member of the international community is aware of the cognitive and physical decline of President Salva Kiir to rule the people of South Sudan. He demonstrated that he is suffering from early dementia at the Environmental Summit in Nairobi, at the Arusha EAC conference, and on December 15 during the admission of Somalia to the EAC where he couldn’t recognize South Sudan on the map of EAC countries (he reached a stage where he couldn’t recognize South Sudan flag due to dementia).
It is an undeniable fact that a successful coup could only happen in South Sudan if it is staged by the NSS and Tiger Republican Guards. What would compel them to stage a coup is the possibility that Riek Machar would become the President of South Sudan after the demise of President Salva Kiir following the December 2024 elections. According to Spear Masters in Warrap who met Gen. Lual Wek in February this year, President Salva Kiir is predicted to naturally expire by the end of 2025. Given the divine prediction of the life span of Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, there is no doubt that Riek Machar would be the next President if he becomes the running mate of President Salva Kiir in the next election.
The ideal time lime for the army to stage a coup is before the election of December 20242024 for reasons. First, if the election takes place and Salva Kiir and Riek Machar win a majority in a free and fair election, the international community will recognize the outcome of the election. Any coup after that would not be accepted internationally. Second, staging a coup before elections would gain support among various tribes in South Sudan because both Riek Machar and Salva Kiir are hated right now. But if the coup takes place after the death of Salva Kiir, the Nuer, and non-Dinka would accuse the Dinka leaders of NSS and Tiger Republican Guards of rejecting Riek Machar because he is a Nuer.
If President Salva Kiir imposes Riek Machar on SPLM members as his running mate, the ideal time for a coup is before December 2024. Such a coup would receive domestic support. The economic collapse South Sudan is currently experiencing because all oil money is given to Benjamin Bol Mel would compel the public to support the coup. The army understands that, since 2021, more than one hundred members of Tiger Republican Guards committed suicide by shooting themselves due to lack of money to take care of their loved ones. That by itself would make a coup acceptable to the army personnel.
In November, progressive and educated members of NSS and Tiger Republican Guards were detained and accused of staging a coup. It is true that young and educated officers like Brig. Gen. Christo Thon, Brig. Gen. Malual Gordon, Brig. Gen. Malual Army etc. believe that a salvation for South Sudan lies in the army to arrest President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar to usher in a new political dispensation for the country based on democracy and the rule of law.
V. Conclusion
We the Warrap Patriots do not support men and women in uniform to interfere in political maneuvers of different political factions of the SPLM-IG. Our advice to SPLM political factions is to demonstrate some degree of civility, capacity, and capability to play civilized politics; that is there must be internal legitimamonamong the politicalans of the SPLM.
We are aware that President Salva Kiir Mayardit has been hijacked by business cartels who believe in a primitive accumulation of wealth. What we are having in Juba is a true state capture by greedy criminals who distorted the ideals of the liberation struggle. For us the freedom fighters, it is now obvious that it was not the liberation per se but power and looting adventure that they were fighting for. However, a military coup that is popularly supported would be welcomed to free South Sudan from thieves that captured the state house.
As Patriots, we want to demonstrate to the people of South Sudan that not everybody from Warrap State is a crook or a looter. We don’t support state capture that diverted the oil money to the pockets of the few while the people of South Sudan are languishing in poverty. For that, we throw our support behind Warrap military and political elites who oppose the reinstatement of Riek Machar back to the SPLM Party.
NB: The Warrap Patriots will issue an article in January 2024 detailing how the oil revenue of South Sudan is being siphoned off by Warrap business cartels. The Expose’ will be unprecedented and will reveal things not covered by any organization before.
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