The Fall of Akobo: Why SPLM-IO has lost strategic depth since Taban Deng Gai parted ways with Dr Riek Machar
Akobo, Jonglei State
By PaanLuel Wel, Juba, South Sudan
Tuesday, 14 April 2026 (PW) — There is a Jieeng saying that a house in disarray invites neighbours to comment. It appears that the SPLM-IO’s strategic approach to national affairs bearing directly on its political survival is indeed in wanting.
The reported recapture of Akobo by the SPLA-IO and the White Army, following a deadly dawn clash and amid fears of possible mass killings of government troops similar to what occurred in Nasir, does not augur well for the rumoured release of Dr Riek Machar under the AU C5 political framework. The repetition of a Nasir-like scenario, particularly one carrying such grave symbolic and political consequences, is likely to harden positions in Juba rather than soften them.
It increasingly appears that the SPLM-IO has lost much of its strategic depth since Taban Deng Gai parted ways with his brother-in-law, Dr Riek Machar, in 2016 following the J1 fighting in Juba. While Dr Riek Machar has long remained the public face of the movement and a man with undeniable mass appeal, Taban Deng Ghai has often been regarded as the more calculating political mind behind some of Machar’s most consequential manoeuvres, from the 1991 Nasir split against Dr John Garang to the 2013 rebellion against President Salva Kiir.
Since their separation in 2016, Dr Riek Machar has appeared to drift from one political crisis to another without a coherent strategic anchor. In the process, he has too often found himself entangled in conflicts not entirely of his own making, yet ultimately bearing the blame and suffering the consequences for them.
Had Taban Deng Ghai still been at his side, one may argue that he would have been sufficiently strategic to recognise that a replay of the Nasir fiasco would be politically disastrous, especially at a moment when Dr Riek Machar’s release is said to be under consideration.
A more prudent approach would have been to avoid precipitating such a confrontation until Dr Riek Machar had first secured his release, safety, and political room for manoeuvre beyond the suffocating grip of Juba, where he has effectively remained under constraint since returning to participate in the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity.
Therefore, if Dr Riek Machar’s political star is to rise and shine again, it may now be incumbent upon Madam Angelina Teny Jany to settle her differences with her cousin and make the necessary political concessions to facilitate Taban Deng Ghai’s return to the SPLM-IO fold.
By this reading, Dr Riek Machar’s real dispute with Taban Deng Ghai has never been fundamental, but rather a consequence of his alignment with his wife in what has increasingly resembled a family-inflected power struggle over who should occupy the position closest to the chairmanship within the SPLM-IO political echelon.
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