South Sudan: Peace Agreement, Oil Crisis and Economic Crunch
By Malith Alier, Juba, South Sudan
January 29, 2016 (SSB) — South Sudan is at a critical moment of peace implementation. The signing of peace agreement dubbed Compromise Peace Agreement (CPA) by rebels on 17th and by government on 26th August called for specific timelines to be observed in its implementation. There have to be a pre-transitional and transitional periods according to that agreement. Virtually, nothing was accomplished over the ninety day pre-transitional period specifically from 26th august to 26th November 2016.
The lacklustre pace of implementation by peace partners is cause for alarm in certain quarters at home and abroad. The pre-transitional period should have ended by the third week of November with certain tasks one of which is constitutional amendment accomplished. This has not happened and the country is in for a long wait as the SPLM/A-IO does not entertain formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNu) without Constitution.
One of the main sticking points which delayed the constitutional amendment is the issue of twenty eight (28) states, created after the signing of peace agreement. The opposition argues that implementation must be on the basis of ten (10) states as in the accord while the government is comfortable with implementing the agreement in the context of 28 states. The other points of disagreement which may be resolved with include; by-elections in parliament and the issue of presidential advisors.
The bickering by the peace partners prompted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) under the chairmanship of Festus Mogae to issue its own timetable to help the parties to implement the agreement on time. Such timetable set 22nd January as the dateline to form TGoNU right after a successful selection of ministerial portfolios.
Many people would want to see a powerful JMEC which can jump in and strike with a sword in case any of the parties violates the agreement. This is not the case instead, and as its name portrays, JMEC monitors and evaluates actions of the peace partners in relation to the peace agreement. If either party violates the agreement, JMEC can report and recommend a course of action to bodies such as IGAD, AU, Troika and the UN. JMEC is therefore not an arbitrator but can sometime act as a mediator in the peace agreement implementation. Chapter VII of the agreement clearly outlines that and the parties to the agreement are aware of this.
Out of all of this is that, time is limited for the implementation of the agreement and the peace partners should lessen their rhetoric. 2018 is at hand. The parties will not achieve the intended reform agenda due to limited time.
And down the line, the economy continues to spiral out of control. A couple of issues contribute to this economic crunch: the undiminished war mode and the falling oil price in the world market.
Our neighbours up north have decided to switch the 2012 mode oil deals with South Sudan. The fall in oil price bites South Sudan more than Sudan because Sudan gets a fixed amount of $25 per barrel which means that South Sudan and petroleum operating companies get nothing from the oil. The managing director of Ebony Centre in Juba Dr. Lual Deng acknowledged that last week. As a result of this, the government of South is now faced with this stark reality of not receiving something out of the oil the country produces.
The government might incur further debts if it continues to allow companies to pump oil out of the abyss. And yet the Sudan is adamant as ever. The minister of finance of that country audaciously said that his country won’t revise oil fees which included what was called Transitional Financial Assistance (TFA).
Mr. Beshir, the Sudanese president weighed in later to say that he had directed revision of oil transit fees. This is just politics of buying time to continue to suck oil as they had already stolen part of the oil claiming that they took it in lieu of unpaid fees according to Sudanese Finance minister.
We all know intransigence of that country when it comes to dealing with this country (South Sudan). The long wars, too many agreements dishonoured, exploitation, rebel support and bickering are some of the crimes we cannot forget. Some of us can ask whether something good can come out of the Sudan of El Beshir.
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