South Sudan Priority Development Programs, Projects, and Policies

South Sudan Priority Development Programs, Projects, and Policies

By Dr. B. Yongo-Bure

Kettering University

Flint, Michigan, USA

Abstract

The need for a credible program of socio-economic development in South Sudan is urgent. However, development is a slow and long-term process, particularly for long-neglected territories such as South Sudan. This paper endeavors to identify a number of quick-impact activities as well as long-term programs and projects that will lead to sustainable development in the new country so that it may begin on a sound basis. It discusses a number of projects that were identified in the past that can be re-appraised for implementation within two to three years. The experiences of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) and the structures it has set up during the Interim Period should enable it to plan and act faster than from 2005.

The government should complement its performance in the socio-economic development field with continuous dialogue and openness with the public. It should be seen as doing its best under the circumstances, and should involve the population in effective decision-making through decentralized responsibilities with resources. However, some minimum level of services should be able to be realized for the credibility of the system to be believed and for hope to be sustained. By substantially reducing abject poverty, instability, insecurity, and violence will be considerably reduced and the country can then move to higher levels of development.

Introduction and Background

One of the main reasons South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly for separate statehood from North Sudan is the quest for socio-economic development. Although many foreign commentators imply that the poverty of South Sudan makes it an unviable separate country, virtually all South Sudanese believe that the present poverty of Southern Sudan will persist and never begin to be tackled as long as South Sudan is ruled from Khartoum. Consequently, all South Sudanese are looking forward to a government of the Republic of South Sudan that puts socio-economic development as one of its priorities.

To sustain peace and national solidarity, the government of the new country must put in place short-, medium-, and long-term development programs and policies. Most of the past and current problems of instability and violence can be attributed largely to the poverty and limited opportunities in South Sudan. With expanding opportunities, a hopeful future becomes possible and antagonisms may be greatly reduced. The intra- and inter-ethnic conflicts are not new and are not inherent in the nature of the people but are largely a result of extremely limited socio-economic development in South Sudan since its incorporation into the present Sudanese and world systems. With equitable transformative socio-economic programs and policies such conflicts will be greatly reduced. Hence, the government of the new country must pursue policies that bring optimism to the majority of South Sudanese. The population should be able to see that there are concrete projects in the pipeline which will soon alleviate their poverty. For basic educational, health, and water projects, deliverables should be available within two to three years. Domestic food production can be substantially increased within one to two seasons, especially if the peasants are given incentives through attractive producer prices and availability of marketing, transportation, and storage facilities.

Fortunately, the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) has already initiated some of these activities during the Interim Period of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and will not have to begin from zero as was the case in 2005. Furthermore, GOSS has founded some of the institutions of a state and gained experience during the six-year Interim Period.

Hence, given the dearth of development and pervasiveness of poverty in the new country, both quick-impact and long-term development activities need to be embarked on immediately. The quick-impact activities are to alleviate poverty and lay the foundation for long-term development, while the long-term programs will bring about cumulatively self-sustaining development. The quick-impact projects must include those in agriculture, education, health and sanitation, water supply, transport and bridges, and small-scale off-farm activities. The long-term projects will be in the same sectors as well as in energy, mining, and manufacturing, which will eventually lead to an integrated industrial economy. Such projects must include the building of oil refineries and the oil-pipeline to the Kenyan port of Lamu, speeding up of large scale gold exploitation, the construction of major hydro-electric projects, the establishment of the three major Southern universities, and the construction of modern secondary schools, teachers training colleges, and modern referral and research hospitals. Serious initiation of some of these projects under a five-ten year program will give the citizens an optimistic view of the future as they will have something to hope for. The projects should be sequenced appropriately so that they are not just meant for political appeasement of the population. The political leadership, at all levels of government, must continuously explain to the people what is being done, why things may not be happening as expected, and what corrective measures are being put in place.

Short-Run and Medium-Run Programs

A growth strategy that is aimed at reaching the bulk of the population is essential for improving the living conditions of the majority and giving them a hopeful future. Given that the majority of the South Sudanese are scattered in the countryside, rural development and decentralized administration should be the basis of such a strategy. With lack of so much pre-requisite physical and social infrastructure and limited agricultural production, little manufacturing industry should be expected in South Sudan in the next few years. Hence, absorbing the urban population in gainful employment will be a daunting problem in the near future. However, creating of many productive activities in the rural areas will slow the rate of urbanization. Thus, John Garang’s strategy of “taking the towns to the people instead of the people coming to the towns,” at leastfor now, should be interpreted as putting emphasis on rural infrastructure, peasant agricultural production, crop marketing (cash payments and storage facilities), cottage industries, and the development of education, health, and water supply in the counties, payams, and bomas.

With at least some rudimentary roads now linking the urban and rural areas, import substitution of food production should be seriously embarked on. This needs prioritization on rural roads, bridges, lorries (trucks), bicycles, storage facilities, paying farmers cash on delivery, etc. Both the public and private sectors should be involved. Domestic food supply should displace much of the imported food as transport cost will be lower if roads and bridges are reconstructed or constructed. Rising incomes in the rural areas will have multiple beneficial effects such as ability to undertake community self-help activities, reduce dependence and corruption as rural population will earn their own incomes instead of depending on government employed relatives whose income cannot take care of all relatives; and are hence induced to supplement their salaries illegitimately. Taxes on internal trade in South Sudan have to be abolished. Local governments can supplement their revenues by charging minimal poll taxes, based on the incomes of their residents but not on quantities of particular commodities produced, as taxes on specific commodities tend to stifle production.

As most food imports from Kenya and Uganda will increasingly come to be produced in South Sudan, these countries, among others, will be propelled to trade with South Sudan in higher-valued manufactures, which will take time for South Sudan to produce. With abundant and cheaper food supply in urban areas, the cost of living will fall and so will the cost of production in industry and other sectors. The tax bases of state and local governments will also be enhanced and so will their abilities to undertake their programs in fields such as education, health, and water supply. Raw material for agro-industry and export earnings for servicing and expanding the economy will be ensured, thus reducing overdependence on oil for foreign exchange and domestic revenue.

For a long-tern strategy to minimize reliance on exhaustible resource such as petroleum, South Sudan should begin to develop a variety of export crops. In addition to oil seeds, coffee, cotton, tea, and palm oil have been grown for cash in South Sudan. In the 1990s, other crops had demonstrated their potential for supplying the local and export markets. These crops included shea butter, chilies, sunflower, gum arabic, soybeans, vegetables, fruits, and honey. In the short-run, expansion in the production of these crops should be encouraged. But in the medium and long-run, research into these crops for varieties that are high-yielding, pest and disease resistant will be important.1

Availability of consumer goods gives the peasants incentives to earn more income.

Since there is hardly any domestic manufacturing in South Sudan, imports of consumer goods should be biased towards the basic needs and wants of the peasants. Import of household utensils, basic textiles, blankets, bicycles, sewing machines, farm implements, baggage, building materials, etc will spur higher development effort. In the meanwhile, South Sudan should be planning to eventually produce these products.

There should be continuous vaccination programs of livestock. Also essential for the animal industry are the provision of dry season watering points, and the creation of large reservoirs or mini-lakes for dry season watering and grazing. Training of many veterinarians and veterinary assistants must be greatly expanded. Research and cross-breeding will have to be restarted. Veterinary laboratories for vaccine production and testing have to be constructed. Local government taxation of cattle could help speed up the controlling of chronic animal diseases and provision of watering points as well as improvement of rangelands, and primary education. A one pound tax per head on half of one’s herd of cattle, and the tax revenue used in the local community, would probably be acceptable to the majority of the livestock owners.

Construction of local access rural roads should be among the priorities of quick-impact programs. In light of the constraints on construction capacity, there is need for instituting labor-intensive public works programs at the county level to begin work on rural infrastructure. Each county should be equipped with a basic package of road construction equipment with maintenance capacity. The county road equipment will be complemented with rural manual labor thus increasing employment opportunities and reducing instability as many cattle-rustling youth will have alternative avenues for productive employment. The use of local labor will infuse more cash into the rural economy and raise income and trade, in addition to raising the general productivity of the economy.

Oil refineries should be built in the oil producing areas, with pipelines linking the

refineries to the major national consuming areas. Large oil storage depots should be built in every county. All these measures will ensure reliability of fuel supply at lower prices. The multiplier effects of the construction and operation of refineries and pipelines will considerably contribute to the alleviation of poverty.

GOSS has done substantial work in the area of providing social services such as education, health, and rural water supply. However, there is need for a functioning hospital in each county. Each state should have at least a modern referral and research hospital in the next five years. Sending government officials abroad for medical care is too expensive and discriminates against the ordinary citizen. Let South Sudan create its own modern facilities such as those in Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, etc to which government officials go for better medical treatment. The national facilities with have far greater impact on health in South Sudan than the foreign ones.

The problems of water borne disease can be most effectively addressed by supplying

clean water in both rural and urban areas. More boreholes should be drilled in the rural areas so as to eventually cover all the rural population. Piped water supply should be available to all residents of cities in the long-run. In the short-run, boreholes should supplement urban water supply. In the long-run, however, boreholes are not appropriate means for urban water supply given seepage from pit latrines and sewages. Sewage systems should be developed in urban areas beginning with the large cities.

Facilities and spare parts for the servicing and maintenance of water supply machinery, equipment, and vehicles should be available at the county level. Other important long-term policy issues, regarding drinking water, include the building of community capacity to maintain the installed facilities as well as the extension of the services to cover all the population. This will involve training of servicing and maintenance capacity at the county and eventually at the community level. Local sources of funds, to be supplemented with central resources, will have to be developed.

To achieve the goal of universal primary education, higher education will have to be greatly expanded to produce the necessary number of teachers and other human resources. Even though there has been a substantial expansion in primary and alternative education during the Interim Period, the gross number includes young adults. This is fine, but it also means that many children of school age are not yet able to attend school. Hence, primary education needs more

expansion and improvement of quality in terms of teachers, buildings, school supplies, etc.

Secondary education needs a major boost. As of 2009, there were about 44,027 students

attending secondary school (grades 9-12) in the whole of South Sudan.2Yet it is from this number that the universities and training institutions will recruit in the near future. Given the paucity of properly educated and trained human resources in South Sudan, this figure is very low. Hence, great efforts should be exerted in secondary school expansion. In any case such a policy should be inevitable given the recent substantial increase in primary school enrollment. In the 1960s, the International Development Association (IDA) expanded loans for the development of education in many newly independent countries. South Sudan should explore this avenue given that IDA’s loans are not expensive to service and repay (after about a generation with an interest rate of 0 to 2 percent).3

The universities of Juba, Malakal, and Wau should be considerably expanded in both student-intake and the variety of courses dependent on the needs of the country. For the various developments envisaged and for the efficient running of both the public and private sectors, South Sudan needs a basic stock of well-educated and trained people. Beginning at a low level of stock, a big push has to be made to fill the wide gap otherwise whatever development is initiated in the short-run will not become sustainable. The implementation, management, monitoring, and evaluation of all programs and projects need well educated and trained human resources. While importation, especially from neighboring countries, may fill in the gaps, in the long-run local human resources will be important for the sustenance of development. There must be a conscious and genuine effort to recruit and encourage the South Sudanese diasporas to return home to contribute. Recruitment for available posts in South Sudan can be undertaken in the country’s embassies where there are large South Sudanese communities instead of requiring the diasporas

to return home before being considered for employment.

As much as a number of foreign banks have moved into South Sudan, the country needs

to develop its own banks, which in the long-run will come to dominate its banking industry. Considerable efforts must be made to develop such a vital sector. It will take time before the habit of banking becomes widespread. Therefore, it must consciously be developed. The persistent problems that the Nile Commercial Bank has been experiencing must be seriously addressed. Each state should establish its own bank(s) with the capital contributed by the central, state, and county governments. The citizens of each state should also buy shares in their state bank(s). This will reduce future complaints about unfairness in the functioning of the national banking system. At least an insurance and re-insurance company/corporation must be set up. States may also establish their own insurance companies, again with shares from the counties and citizens of each state. Plans should be devised to educate and train human resources for the establishment of the nucleus of a financial system. The Bank of South Sudan should spearhead such an effort.

Manufacturing should focus selectively on those activities relevant to rehabilitation and construction, using as much local material as possible. The building materials industry is among the priority sectors. There is need for carpentry at the local level for the manufacture of furniture. Repair and manufacture of farm implements will enhance the growth of the agricultural sector. Manufacture of packaging material will gain in prominence as agricultural production and exports increase.4 Other products that can easily be produced in the early stages of manufacturing and are essential include hosiery, aluminum utensils, cardboard boxes, sanitary fittings, nails and screws, toothpaste, and many others.

Textile and leather industries have strong linkages to the national economy as the raw

material either already abounds (animals) or can be annually produced (cotton). With rapid

urbanization, manufacture of sanitary products and fittings will be urgent. To expand education

at as low cost as possible, many educational supplies will have to be manufactured in South

Sudan. Hence, there is need for developing the pulp and paper industry from the abundant local papyrus as well as from agricultural (e.g., sugar cane and sorghum stalks) and wood by-products.

The manufacturing of various spare parts for vehicles and industry will improve the overall performance of the economy, as high capacity utilization will be made possible. Given the low level of entrepreneurship in the modern manufacturing sector, government policy will have to play an important role in the acquisition of skills and the development of local entrepreneurship.

Small-Scale Cottage Industries

Small-scale and handicraft industries can make a significant contribution in generating employment, supplying inputs, and consumer goods. Most of cottage industries usually consist of activities already being undertaken, but due to lack of some complementary inputs, their full potentials are not being realized.5 Therefore, public policy support to these activities could considerably improve their productivities. The importance of this sub-sector in the reconstruction and development of South Sudan arises from the fact that this is the only industrial sub-sector that has had greater role than large-scale urban manufacturing in the new country. The skills for the revival and expansion of this sub-sector exist. Given the less demanding complementary facilities and inputs this sector requires, it could respond much more quickly to the recovery and development of South Sudan. Moreover, this sub-sector is of immediate direct benefit to the rural population through agricultural production, employment, and incomes as well as poverty alleviation and minimization of rural-urban migration. Furthermore, together with peasant-based agriculture, it provides a sound basis for further development, as rising rural incomes will provide the necessary market for the other economic

activities to be undertaken domestically.

Rural industry also contributes to food security as it supplies and repairs the farm tools and implements. It increases the market for agricultural output, leading to increased food production as well as the ability to purchase food for those not directly engaged in farming. In case of crop failure, rural non-farm employment can provide earnings for food purchases from other areas and/or imports. Part-time rural non-farm activities reduce underemployment and therefore increase the income of the rural population and enhance their ability to purchase food and have a diversified food basket.

Some of the various activities that have been carried out at the subsistence level, both in the rural and urban areas consist of pottery, fiber weaving, leather works, carpentry, and wood-carving, iron mongery, home-made yarns, and building materials, and the making of carpet, cheese, granary, and musical instruments. Small-scale rural and urban industries undertaken mainly on commercial basis include tailoring, grinding mills, brick laying, brewing, crop processing such as tobacco curing, and repair works especially of bicycles. While assistance to handicraft activities in the urban centers is not in dispute, the greater efforts should be directed at encouraging these activities in the rural areas. Dispersed small-scale industries can reduce the rate of rural-urban migration. This effect would minimize the problems resulting from urban population concentration with stagnant employment opportunities in the towns.

Brick laying is already widespread all over South Sudan. It should be promoted in every community as it is important for both public and private sector construction in terms of building schools, health centers, stores, and houses. The making of large granaries for crop storage, from durable local materials such as bamboo, will contribute considerably to easing some constraints in the marketing system before large modern silos can be substituted for them.

Of considerable significance in scope, employment, value added, and income is tailoring.

Most of the rural population buys clothing on made-to-order basis instead of ready-made clothing. However, the cost of both second-hand and new sewing machines has risen beyond the means of most peasants. Limited number of tailors in the rural areas because of the costs of sewing machines means that the rural population will have to walk long distances to purchase clothing and other modern necessities since tailoring in rural South Sudan has been undertaken jointly, in common premises, with retailing. This will reduce the supply of farm labor through the time and effort spent walking long distances to obtain these services. Introduction of a hire-purchase system all over South Sudan can ease the constraint on sewing machine ownership.

To realize the production of adequate food supply and agricultural exports, the peasants must have plenty and reliable supply of farm tools and implements such as hoes, axes, pangas, matchets, slashers, etc. While most of the inputs will continue to be imported, facilities for repair and maintenance will be a local responsibility. Given the scattered nature of the population in the vast area of South Sudan, it will not be possible to establish repair and maintenance centers for most peasants. The local blacksmith will be crucial in providing the bulk of these services. This sub-sector should be given financial, technical and material support to enable it to upgrade the quality of its products and increase its productivity. Acquisition of information on farm tools and equipment, from neighboring countries or from countries at similar level of development, is important. Examples include the FAO agricultural equipment improvement project in Kenya, the FAO village workshop project in Zambia, and the UNIDO project on village production of agricultural implements by local blacksmiths in Tanzania.6

For easier rural transport and to increase competition in crop marketing, repair facilities and spare parts for bicycles must be widespread in the rural areas. Availability of grinding mills and water boreholes at the village level will enhance labor productivity as more time and effort will be released for other activities. Hence, the availability of tools and spare parts for the maintenance of these facilities as well as the training of local maintenance personnel at the village level is a must. Carpentry for chairs, tables, trays and cupboards at the village level can supply the local needs for these household items. The village carpentry will be necessary for the maintenance of the local school furniture.

Although processing of farm products for export will require modern facilities, local processing is important in such sub-sectors as fishing and hides and skins. In the remote fishing villages fish not eaten or sold fresh is smoked, sun-dried or sun-dried salted. The third method of local fish processing is the most efficient. Hence, availability of salt is critical for boosting food supply in the local fishing industry. The quality of hides and skins can be greatly improved in their treatment by the local herdsman during drying and storage. Shade and frame drying techniques should be expanded. New and better methods of treating hides and skins will raise the value of these raw materials for the tanning and leather industries. Consequently, South Sudan will be able to produce large and high quality leather products such as shoes, suitcases, belts, purses, etc. The thrust in this sub-sector is to raise productivity by supporting what is already

being undertaken instead of introducing new activities.

Medium to Long-Term Programs

While most of the actions, projects, and programs discussed above are mainly short to medium-term, GOSS also needs to initiate plans for the long-run direction of the new country’s economy. Where does GOSS want to see the new country ten to twenty years from now? This calls for projects which will have transformative impact on the country. This is where the major projects in industrialization, energy and power, irrigation, mining, and training of various

specialists fall into.

GOSS should give an indication of its plans for the development of the Fulla and Bedden Hydroelectric Projects as well as the development of transmission lines to the central, eastern, northern, and western parts of South Sudan, given that the hydroelectric potential of the country is concentrated south of Juba. Adaption of solar and wind energy technologies should also be seriously pursued. Extraction of alluvial gold, from Kapoeta and southern Bari, was said to be important during the war. Can these goldfields be exploited on large scale and help reduce South Sudan’s overdependence on oil for foreign exchange and domestic revenue? What other Southern mineral deposits are commercially viable? What are the country’s long-term plans for building a diversified self-sustaining economy and its relationship to the neighboring countries’ economies? What are the plans for an integrated transportation network in the next ten to fifteen years (major roads and railways, etc)? Indications of serious actions in these fields will give people some ideas about their future and get engaged in productive dialogue with optimism.

While GOSS may have already developed and appraised its post-referendum/independence projects, this paper suggests a look at a number of projects that were planned in the past but were halted because of the war. Some of these projects can be re-evaluated and incorporated in any of the short-, medium-, and long-term programs of the new country.7

Mefit’s Projects

In the second half of the 1970s, the Regional Government of Southern Sudan contracted Mefit, an Italian Consulting Firm, to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the Southern Sudanese economy.8 Mefit produced a number of reports including one on projects that could produce goods for export, the South Sudan market, as well as for local markets. There were eleven export market projects, seven for the Southern market, and nine local market projects.

Mefit’s analysis of each project included land requirements, inputs, employment, cost of

execution (both investment and recurrent costs), projected sales and profits and the rate of return, and the duration of execution of the investment. The rate of return for every project was estimated on commercial basis. However, given the time that has elapsed since these projects were identified and analyzed, a re-evaluation of their feasibilities will be essential.

Export Market Projects

The eleven export market projects were all in the crop and livestock production subsectors. They dealt with the processing of groundnuts (peanuts), pineapple, tea, cocoa, tobacco, and sorghum; cattle, sheep, and poultry raising centers; and egg, milk, and beef production. Maize production and processing should be included in this group. These projects were essentially medium-sized estate schemes each with an out-growers peasant component.

Mefit argued that increased production and processing of groundnuts and sorghum would be among the fastest industries that can be developed in South Sudan. Except for the areas of water-logging, both crops are grown all over South Sudan. Mefit suggested an integrated project for the two crops. The objectives of Mefit’s groundnut project were to: (i) increase the availability of edible oils for the Sudanese and export markets; (ii) substitute export of groundnuts with those of its products such as oil and flours, which have higher values; and

(iii) produce highly nutritive flour so as to improve the quality of both human and animal nutrition in South Sudan.

The project was to consist of:(i) one groundnut mill with a yearly processing capacity of 25,000 tons of unshelled nuts; (ii) eight specialized farms, each one covering an area of 2,500 feddans, of which 1,250 were to be cultivated in groundnuts and 1,250 with sorghum or maize; and (iii) the improvement of productivity in peasant farms covering a total area of about

90,000 feddans.9 The annual output of the mill was to consist of 8,600 tons of oil, 9,000 tons of

flour and 5,000 tons of shells. The rate of return of the project was nine percent and the project would reach full planned level of operation in 8 to 10 years. While Merfit’s preferred location of the mill was Juba, the farms can be located anywhere in South Sudan where there is no water- logging.

The sorghum project was to consist of six specialized farms to be located near the major population centers, and improvement in the productivity of peasant production around the specialized farms. The specialized farms would give a rate of return of 3.5 percent. But with extension services to raise peasant productivity by about 80 percent, the whole project would slightly give a negative rate of return. However, Mefit argued that the project should still be undertaken because of its social benefits of providing basic food, and the profitability of the groundnut project integrated with it.

Each of the six specialized farms would cover an area of 2,500 feddans. They would grow sorghum both for marketing and for seed. Seed production must be integrated by a functioning agricultural extension service so that, peasants can effectively take advantage of it. The peasants would cultivate a total area of about 75,000 feddans, with an annual output of 15,000 tons. The total output of the specialized farms will also be about 15,000 tons. The specialized farms would have flour processing and packaging plants.

The sorghum varieties would be short enough for mechanical harvesting. They would have to be resistant to birds, contain a high percentage of proteins, and meet consumer’s taste. While the specialized farms would realize full production in about six to eight years, improvement in peasant productivity, to the planned level, would take eight to ten years.

Mefit proposed an integrated pineapple export project to be located in the Meridi area.

The key project components were to include a factory capable of processing more than 20,000

tons of fruit a year, a specialized farm covering an area of 1,500 feddans managed directly by the factory, and a system of family managed farms covering a total area of about 2,500 feddans. The family farms were to be situated around Meridi, Ibba, Mamba, and Eidi. The total annual output of the project was estimated at 42,000 tons of fresh fruit. The canning plant would have a processing capacity of 22,000 tons of fresh fruit, which are approximately 12 to 15 thousand pineapples in eight months per year.

To increase the acreage and productivity of the family farms, it would be necessary to improve the road system and extension services as well as to extend loans to the farmers. Transportation for domestic and export markets would also need to be improved. It was also observed that verification of the appropriate pineapple varieties most suitable for the environment was essential so as to maximize productivity. Otherwise pineapple growing is widely practiced in the area, and favorable soils exist to permit further expansion.

In addition to the fruit processing plant, the project would need an accessory plant for the production of metal cans for the export of fresh fruit, a nearby source of packing material (wood shavings, cartons), a refrigerated plant and refrigerated equipment for transporting the fruit. It was estimated that when the agro-industrial complex becomes fully operational, its rate of return would be 16.6 percent. It would reach full capacity utilization in nine years.

One of the components of Mefit’s tea growing and manufacturing project was being implemented at Upper Talanga. However, Mefit suggested the Yei area on the basis of rainfall. Tea has been produced at Iwatoka in the Yei area since colonial times. Mefit envisaged the establishment of four integrated production centers in South Sudan. Each center was to consist of a factory with a yearly productive capacity of 500 tons of dry tea, and a group of family-managed tea farms, located in the factory’s surrounding, covering a total cultivated area of 625 to 750 feddans. The project would attain its full capacity utilization of 2,000 tons of dry tea in a tea-cultivated area of 5,000 to 5,500 feddans, within eight to ten years.

Mefit assessed cocoa as a marginal crop in South Sudan mainly because of rainfall requirements.10 After providing for supplementary irrigation, the consultant identified Tombura as the most suitable location for a cocoa growing and manufacturing project. This project has the longest gestation period. It would consist of: (i) a specialized cocoa plantation covering an area of 1,250 feddans; (ii) a processing plant; (iii) a total cultivated area of 1,900 feddans of small family-managed farms; (iv) five harvest centers, which would be used for the first processing of fresh produce, supplied by the small farmers.

The first phase, dependent on production from the plantation, would materialize in about six years. The small farmers program would begin in the sixth year when the specialized farm would have created a nursery to obtain material for the cuttings to be distributed to smallholders. Imports of seedlings could speed-up the process. In the long-run, breeding of more drought resistant strains could reduce the water requirement. Infrastructure, credit, and extension services would have to be developed.

Once, all the areas destined for planting are fully developed, the project would give an annual export of 600 tons of cocoa beans. Later production of chocolate and powdered cocoa may be considered. The entire agro-industrial enterprise would become fully productive in about 16 years, giving a rate of return of slightly over 12 percent. While low immediate profitability characterize this experimental project, the smallholders may eventually increase their acreage and productivity when its profitability is proven.

Being a crop of relatively low rainfall requirements, tobacco has adapted itself to many

areas in South Sudan. Mefit’s proposed project consisted of three independent agro-industrial

centers. These centers were to process 1,500 tons of tobacco cultivated on a total area of 3,450 feddans of which, smallholders would cultivate 2,700. Each center was to consist of: (i) a factory with a yearly processing capacity of 500 tons of dry tobacco leaves; (ii) a specialized farm covering an area of 375 feddans of which 250 would be cultivated in tobacco; the farm would be managed by the factory’s administration; (iii) a number of family-managed farms, covering a total area of 900 feddans growing tobacco; these farms would be located in the area surrounding the factory; (iv) a total area of 1,150 feddans of tobacco plantations.

The annual yield provided by each specialized farm was estimated at 125 tons of dry tobacco leaves. Each family-managed farm should produce 360 tons of dry tobacco leaves per year. The factory would have to guarantee the purchase of tobacco from private growers. It would have to process it and supervise its marketing both domestically and abroad. While the rate of return of the project would be low in the first 3 years, it would reach about 12 percent in the fourth year.

The cattle and sheep raising centers and related processing plants were to take advantage of the large livestock industry of South Sudan. A beef processing plant would become operational in the fourth year, attaining full operations in eight years; while a lamb processing plant would start production in the third year, reaching full capacity in seven years. The relatively long periods required for implementation is due to the need of training personnel and establishing a steady supply of young livestock. The faster peasants would respond to raising and marketing of calves and lambs, the shorter the gestation periods for both projects.

The rate of return on the beef processing plant was put at 5.2 percent, with a profit margin of 14 percent. The corresponding rates for the lamb plant were 4.7 percent and 8.3 percent. These rates can be higher if the feeds can be supplied without irrigation as the

investment costs would be lower. Still a better rate of return can be obtained if both

processing plants can be merged into one unit with two processing lines, one for beef and the other for lamb. This should permit great saving with subsequent reductions in both investment requirements and operating expenses for the same level of production.

The beef processing project consisted of three distinct sections: an agricultural section for the production of fodder, an animal husbandry section for fattening of livestock, and an industrial section for slaughtering and meat processing. The project aimed at raising 30,000 heads of cattle per year, to yield 5,250 tons of meat (in half carcasses) for export, and the production of feed and fattening of livestock on five farms, each with an area of 3,000 feddans.

In each of the five farms, 2,750 feddans would be irrigated for the production of maize and sorghum, a fattening center for 6,000 heads of cattle, and silos and warehouses would be constructed for stocking the forage. The 30,000 cattle per year would be slaughtered in a location as centrally as possible to all five farms.

The production process would include the processing of the maize and sorghum into silage as maize, maize cakes or mash, and sorghum flour. Calves would be purchased on the South Sudan market for fattening. These would consist of male calves with average weight of 70 kg (one year old). These calves would be raised for an average period of 300 days, until they reach a medium live weight of 350 kg. The 30,000 heads of cattle would be slaughtered in one slaughtering-refrigerating processing plant. The annual output of the plant would consist of 5,250 tons of beef in half carcasses, 787 tons of hides, 505 tons of variety of meats (entrails), and 477 tons of protein floor.

The sheep project also consisted of three sections similar to those of the cattle project,

that is agricultural, animal husbandry, and industrial sections. The project aimed at raising

120,000 lambs a year to produce 1,800 tons of carcasses of meat. The lambs to be fattened would be purchased locally, with a live weight of 15 kg (six to eight months of age). Production of feed and fattening of stock would take place in four farms, each with a size of 850 feddans. In each of the four farms, 790 feddans would be irrigated for the production of maize and sorghum. Each farm would have a fattening center with a capacity of 10,000 lambs capable of completing three fattening cycles a year, giving a total of 30,000 lambs altogether. Silos and warehouses would be constructed for stocking the feed.

The 120,000 lambs fattened every year on the four farms would be sent to a butchering-refrigerating processing plant to be built near the farms. The annual output of the plant would consist of 2,000 tons of lamb in carcasses, 250 tons of kip (hides), 160 tons of protein flour and 170 tons of pluck (entrails).

Mefit suggested the area north of Malakal, particularly the Renk area for the location of both projects because, by then, the Middle East oil exporting countries were the markets targeted. However, during the second war, cattle from southern Bahr el Ghazal were exported to Uganda. Moreover, the tsetse infested Green Belt and Western Bahr el Ghazal are protein deficient. The large market of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) and to a lesser extent the Central African markets are potentially available for meat exports from South Sudan.11Moreover, population growth, economic growth and development, and increasing urbanization

will result in greater demand for food and meat, particularly by the non-farming population.

Egg and poultry consumption is the cheapest sources of animal protein. Egg and poultry production can be undertaken almost anywhere in South Sudan. Hence, Mefit proposed the establishment of poultry raising and egg production centers. These centers were to be located in the agricultural areas around Juba as Juba was/is the largest South Sudan market. Moreover, Juba was linked by good transportation to the other towns of South Sudan as well as to North Sudan, and neighboring countries. Furthermore, Juba Airport was being upgraded to international standards.

An integrated poultry breeding system was to be established with an annual output of 10.4 million broiler chickens at full capacity operations. A poultry company would be responsible for the feeder mill, brood-stock raising, incubator, the processing plant (slaughtering, dressing and freezing), and the marketing of the finished products. Individual farmers would be responsible for raising poultry for fattening. A contract system would be established between the farmers and the poultry company. The company was to supply the farmers with one-day-old chicks, feed, medicine and disinfectants, technical and veterinary assistance. The farmers would attend the chicken raising and bear the costs of labor, litter material and operation expenses. At the end of each raising cycle, the company would buy the chicken from the farmers for processing. The processing would involve slaughtering and refrigeration. The raw material for the feeds would be from the local production of maize, sorghum, groundnuts flour, cottonseed cakes, and sesame-seed cakes. Hence, the project would lead to increased production in other sub-sectors.

The rates of return were estimated at 18 percent for the company and 12 percent for the farmers. The project would become operational in 20 to 24 months, reaching full capacity operations in about 36 months. However, training and organizing the integrated farmers would play an important role in the productivity and profitability of the project.

The egg-processing project was to produce 55.5 million eggs per year (or 153,000 eggs per day), and was to import one-day-old female chicks from Italy. This was because the modest capacity of the project could not justify the implementation of a brood-stock raising system.12 The project was to consist of six brood-stock raising centers, 12 laying centers, one egg grading and packaging center and one droppings dryer plant. A feed mill, which could be integrated into the poultry fattening system, would take care of processing and supplying the feed stuff. The droppings should be dried to produce high-value organic fertilizer. The project would become operational in about 18 months and reach full capacity operations after 24 months. Its rate of return was estimated at 11.3 percent, but could be higher if integrated with the poultry project.

South Sudan Market Projects

The main consideration Mefit took into account for the selection of projects in this category included increase in employment, a better and more efficient use of local resources, and greater integration of existing productive resources. Therefore, the consultant recommended projects that would use wood, quarries, hides and skins. The bicycle and soap projects were included due to the need to facilitate mobility in South Sudan and the necessity to lower the cost of raising hygienic and sanitary standards. A factory for making blankets should be included in this list.

The building components industries project was basically the production of prefabricated panels of reinforced concrete to be used for private homes, industrial sites, road building, and public buildings such as schools, hospitals, administrative buildings, etc. The importance and hence the scope of this project would increase with population and economic growth and development. With increasing urbanization and industrialization there will be an increased need for housing, industrial, and other productive units such as warehouses, livestock and breeding farms, etc. The project has also strong backward effects as it has strong linkages to the brick, cement, and wood industries. Hence, its impact on production, employment, and income in South Sudan would be substantial. Moreover, its products would increase the

longevity of capital goods in South Sudan, particularly in the construction sector.

The construction phases of the project would last about two years. Depending on the availability of the required labor and other complementary inputs and services, the prefabricated panel industry would take about three years to generate its maximum employment and a fully productive working schedule. However, Merfit argued that the high rate of return on investment of 23.5 percent could compensate for the slower rate of reaching full capacity utilization.

The building material industries project was proposed to furnish the construction components necessary for the building of low cost housing, including do-it-yourself. The simplicity of assembly of the selected components would guarantee rapidity of construction, as well as a high grade of building quality. This project would complement the building components’ project, as it would also include the prefabrication of reinforced concrete panels for public and industrial buildings.

The project was to consist of two plants. The first plant was to handle the acquisition and processing of raw materials, that is expanded clay. The second project was to prepare prefabricated blocks of diverse types in relation to the various mains and supporting masonry, partitions and coverings. The production process was to be flexible such that, the dimensional pattern could easily be amplified and reproduced according to the needs of the building materials of the area. The two plants would take about 16 months to construct; and would reach full capacity utilization in another six to eight months. The annual output was put at 750,00m2 of prefabricated clay blocks. The rate of return on investment was estimated to be as high as 30 percent.

The wood processing industry was to include products such as doors, windows, office

furniture, and components of furniture for kitchen. With increased economic growth and

development, and population growth, there will be an increase in demand for housing and public buildings, which in turn will lead to increase in demand for the products of the industry. Furthermore, there will always be a demand for all and various types of restructural and reparing activities for existing homes.

The bicycle project was included in the development plans of the Southern Regional Government in the 1970s, but was not executed. Bicycles of various types and sizes were to be produced. Merfit foresaw on-the-spot construction of bicycle frames, painting of the same, and the assembly of imported accessories. Based on a one-work shift, output was estimated at 100,000 bicycles per year. The bicycle plant would be built in 18 to 20 months, and would give a rate of return of 23 percent. The project was to be expanded to the assembly of motor cycles; and the manufacture of chassis, parts for agricultural and industrial machines as more skills are gained.

The manufacture of matches was an import substitution project aimed at taking advantage of South Sudan’s abundance of the main raw material, wood. After meeting the national market, in the first phase, expansion in the second phase would lead to production for export to North Sudan as well as to other countries. Two different groups of machines were to be installed: one for the production of small wooden pieces of the match base, and the other for the production of matches. Two types of matches were to be produced: a family type made up of 100 matches with rough phosphorous, and the Swedish safety match, in boxes of 50 matches. The daily production was put at 100,000 boxes of the family type and 200,000 boxes of the Swedish type. The project would be constructed in about 15 months, and give a rate of return of 20 percent.

The manufacture of leather products was to be transformed from traditional to more

efficient industrial processes. The products of the modern manufacture were to include purses, shoes, suitcases, etc. The presence of plenty of skins and hides, as well as the development of the animal industry and the processing of animal products provides ample supplies of raw materials. After meeting the needs of South Sudan, the capacity of this industry would be expanded for the export market. The annual output of the project, in the first phase, was planned at 250,000 pairs of shoes and 250,000 purses. It was to be erected in 18 months, and give a rate of return of 18.2 percent.

The soap-manufacturing project was aimed atimproving the living conditions of the population by raising hygienic and sanitary levels. A locally made product would be relatively cheaper than imports, and would lead to a more intense use of these products. The plant was to produce several types of soap, in bars, flakes and powder, so as to satisfy the various family-level requirements such as personal hygiene, clothes washing, kitchen use, etc. The plant was also to be able to produce more sophisticated products as basic chemicals become plentiful. Products such as detergents were/are only imports in South Sudan. The project was to make the import substitution of such projects possible, both for family as well as for handicraft and industrial use. The annual productive capacity was planned at 3,000 metric tons. The project was to be erected in about 18 months; and would yield a rate of return of 18.4 percent.

Local Market Projects

Mefit’s proposed nine local market industrial projects were sheet metal fabricating, paint

and varnishes, wire products, bakelite electrical accessories, hosiery, aluminum utensils, corrugated cardboard boxes, sanitary fittings, and a tooth paste unit. Mefit envisaged that the local market projects would be located in district/county headquarters. These projects could easily be undertaken, as the investment on them would be quite limited. All these projects would be executed in about 12 months, except for the paint and varnishes plant, which would take 16 to 18 months to construct. Furthermore, the goods can be made with local inputs. Finally, these projects would help in the transformation of such existing activities that use inefficient traditional methods, through the introduction of modern techniques and forms of labor organization. On the whole, the projects Mefit proposed were based on very simple technological processes, do not require very qualified human resources, use mainly local resources, and were/are highly remunerative.

The sheet metal fabrication project was to produce laminated metallic material for use in the production of tables, chairs, tanks, and similar products. The annual productive capacity of the plant was projected to range from 100 to 120 metric tons. The raw materials were to be made up of 150 metric tons of steel per year, and 4,000 liters of water per day. The return on investment was put at about 20 percent.

The paint and varnishes project was to supply the building industry with an annual output of 300 metric tons. The input requirements included 30,000 liters of dry oils, 30,000 liters of solvents, 25 metric tons of colored pigments, 100 kW of electric energy and 80,000 liters of water per day. A 17.2 percent estimated rate of return was projected.

The wire products project was to produce nails, screws, clips, and other metallic products, designed for use in the building and construction sector, including office and housing. The productive capacity of the plant was planned at about 25 metric tons of metal parts per year. The necessary raw materials include about 30 metric tons of steel and 10 to 15 kW of electric energy, glues, lubricants, etc. The output of this unit was to be about 25 metric tons of metal parts annually. The projected rate of return was put at 24 percent.

The aim of the bakelite electric accessories unit was to produce electrical materials such

as plugs, switches, etc., for the building industry. The projected annual output was 80 to 100 thousand switches, 40,000 plugs, 10,000 junction box plates and 20,000 lamp holders. The raw material consists of four to five metric tons of formaldehyde powder, seven to eight metric tons of brass sheets, and 250 to 300 pounds of polystyrene molding powder. The projected rate of return on investment was put at 13.3 percent.

The hosiery unit was to produce clothing and knitwear of simple types and broad consumption. Its annual production was to consist of 300,000 units of cotton dresses and robes, and 350,000 units of personal knitwear. The base raw material for these products was placed at about 50 metric tons of spun cotton per year, and 15 to 20 kW of electric energy per day. Its estimated rate of return was 24 percent.

The aluminum utensils unit was to produce kitchen utensils for the local market. The utensils were to include plates, pans, knives, forks, spoons, etc. It was geared to produce 30 metric tons of utensils annually. Its daily consumption of electricity was estimated at 40 kW, while a total of 32 metric tons of aluminum raw materials would be required per annum The project would give a rate of return of 20 percent.

The corrugated cardboard box unit was meant to produce cardboard boxes, paper envelopes, and similar objects for wrapping and boxing products such as soap, clothing, electrical products, and the like. The plant was to produce 170 metric tons of corrugated cardboard cartons, and 85 metric tons of kraft paper and straw paper; 90 metric tons of cardboard or millboard; and 25 metric tons of adhesives. The rate of return was estimated to be 21.7 percent.

The sanitary fittings plant was to produce sanitary fittings for the local market with an

annual productive capacity of 30,000 fittings. Its rate of return was estimated at 18.5 percent.

The toothpaste unit was to produce 10 to 15 thousand kilograms of toothpaste per annum. Its rate of return was estimated at 14.3 percent.

Concluding Remarks

The hope for improved living conditions in South Sudan, under a separate nationhood, was one of the major factors in the overwhelming vote for secession. Consequently, the government of the new country is expected to immediately initiate a serious program of socio-economic development. The programs, projects, and policies outlined in this paper constitute some of the feasible activities that can substantially reduce poverty in South Sudan within a few years.

Not all the projects and programs outlined above are to be undertaken by the government, but the various levels of government are to play leading roles in organizing and coordinating all the actors: public, private, and co-operative sectors; NGOs, bilateral, and multilateral donors. Given the great need for physical and social infrastructure, the public sector will have to play a very important role in the economy since the private sector rarely undertakes infrastructural projects. The private and co-operative sectors should play important roles in undertaking the directly productive activities.

The largest private sector in South Sudan, at this stage of its development, is the peasant sector. Tapping this potential through appropriate policies will impact considerably on South Sudan’s development. Redeploying veterans and retired civil servants to the private sector will speed-up the development of the national private sector. Individuals in both categories have some ready capital in the form of their pensions and gratuities. They can play an important role in the trucking industry as well as in market-farming and trading. Given some training in various types of commercial enterprises, they can pick up areas of activities consistent with their aptitudes, interests, and locations. Moreover, by redeploying veterans and old civil servants to more remunerative activities in the private sector, recruitment of new civil servants with the relevant training and skills will enhance the productivity of the economy.

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