Archive for September 7, 2011

South Sudan Anti Corruption Commission releases 2010 report detailing 18 million Sudanese pounds of government graft

Marvis Birungi

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir displays the transitional constitution of the Republic of South Sudan after signing it into law during the Independence Day celebrations in the capital Juba, July 9, 2011 Photo: Reuters
At Independence celebrations in the capital, Juba, South Sudan President pledged to combat corruption.

The South Sudan Anti-Corruption Commission tabled its 2010 annual report to the National Assembly on Tuesday. The report reveals that the commission investigated and closed cases involving more than 12 million Sudanese pounds of funds misused by un-named ministries and one corporation. The commission report also indicates that cases totalling six million Sudanese pounds in alleged government graft were referred to other agencies.

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has frequently highlighted corruption as being one of the biggest impediments to the new nation’s development. One high level example is some the disappearance of billions of US dollars worth of government food subsidies in 2008. That is currently being investigated by the National Assembly. Opinion polling and surveys indicate the general public also sees corruption as a major issue, but that they remain concerned that little is being done to end the problem.

Please click on the link below, or at the top right hand of the page, to hear VOA’s Marvis Birungi reporting on the release of the South Sudan Anti-Corruption Commission Report.

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A man waves South Sudan's national flag as he attends the Independence Day celebrations in the capital Juba, July 9, 2011

End Tribalism, Corruption, South Sudenese Say

US institute visits 52 locations in South Sudan to ask people what direction they’d like the new nation to head in–129392078.html

South Sudan seeking fast track to international recognition

Posted: September 7, 2011 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Junub Sudan

By David Gold

Nicholas_Musonye_07-09-11September 7 – Zanzibar and South Sudan have applied to join FIFA, with the Council of East and Central Africa’s Football Association (CECAFA) helping to fast track their applications.

FIFA has previously rejected an application from Zanzibar on the basis that it lacks sovereignty.

Zanzibar is a semi autonomous part of Tanzania, and has its own Government, with these being cited by FIFA as the reasons for its initial rejection.

Mzee Zam Ali, the Zanzibar Football Association (ZFA) secretary general, has asked the Ministry of Information, Culture and Sports to continue fighting to gain membership in FIFA.

"It’s true we have received official communication from FIFA secretary general notifying us of the collapse of our membership bid," Ali said.

"But this is not the end of the road as the Ministry should strengthen cooperation with ZFA in search of the membership card from FIFA."

South Sudan on the other hand should have a smoother path to recognition, but they face a two-year wait to participate in international competitions.

Nevertheless, Nicholas Musonye (pictured), secretary general of CECAFA, is keen to welcome the Sudanese into his organisation and wants the country to be allowed to compete in FIFA competitions earlier than this.

"The rules are very clear; it takes two years for a new member to be accepted but we can always push for special dispensation," Musonye said.

"We are excited at the prospect of having a new member in our stable."

Hassan Abu Jamal, executive secretary general of the Sudan Football Association (SFA), sees soccer as a unifying factor and a vehicle to lift the people’s morale.

"The game will help build national identity in South Sudan, strengthen national unity and overcome ethnic tensions," he said.

"We know we will get that help; and if it means waiting two years before we can play in international competitions, we are ready."

South Sudan became a new country and a member of the United Nations in July this year after voting to split from Sudan following a bloody civil war that resulted in the deaths of roughly two million people.

Contact the writer of this story at–zanzibar-and-south-sudan-seeking-fast-track-to-international-recognition

South Sudan Alliance with NATO? The State of South Sudan and NATO

Posted: September 7, 2011 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Junub Sudan

Intentions on Trial

The magazine, Global Public Square, and the Times of London have recently published statements by US former envoy to Sudan, Andrew Natsios, in which he called on US government and European governments to create a long strategic alliance with the State of South Sudan.
In addition, Natsios called on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to include South Sudan in the NATO’s security system through entering into a security guarantee agreement with it whereby South Sudan would be included in the NATO’s mandate and hence any aggression on South Sudan would be considered an aggression on all NATO system.
However, many observers consider attempts by some powers to intimidate some regional parties by making them believe that the Government of north Sudan has evil plans against its neighbors aim at creating regional tensions, a situation that justifies Western intervention.
These fears of north Sudan intentions had increased in the months that preceded the conduction of the referendum on self-determination of South Sudan with western circles claiming that the Sudanese government was adamant to abort the referendum process to prevent the South from attaining its independence and announcing its state.
Such plans and intimidations were clearly manifested in the reports of nongovernmental organizations that closely monitors the situation in Sudan, in the reports that have been regularly prepared by the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) and in strategic studies centers reports; we should not forget the international conference on Sudan that was held last September at UN headquarters in New York.
All these fora have focused on fears that north and south Sudan would slip into war and violence assuming that the Government of north Sudan may not be pleased with the secession of South Sudan and the difficulties it would face following the loss of 75 percent of the country’s oil.
However, all such expectations have proved to be baseless since they have been founded on wrong information and assumptions: the referendum process had gone on smoothly and without any problems, with 98 percent of Southern Sudanese voting for secession.
Following the announcement of the new Southern state on July 9, the same circles have begun again to warn against the risk of the eruption of war between the two neighboring states because of the many pending issues and differences between them, particularly Abyei region.
When the Sudanese Armed Forces found itself forced to control Abyei region in reply to SPLA’s repeated violations and aggression, these hostile circles have started again to warn against the danger of the eruption of war and found the legitimate move of Sudanese Armed Forces to defend itself an evidence of Khartoum’s bad intentions.
These same circles use the difficulties being faced in arriving at a final solution to the Abyei questions as a pretext for intimidation and planting differences between the two states in the north and the south in additional to regional parties.

Strategic Burden

Whether Natsios meant that South Sudan should be allowed to join NATO or that his statement was mere invitation for a protection agreement within a strategic perspective, any of the options would form a strategic burden for the alliance. As we know, NATO has been facing lately unending crises that have imposed on the alliance unprecedented challenges and hence have forced it to reconsider its options and capabilities continuously.
The State of South Sudan, no matter how much Natsios’ doting in its unlimited wealth, would not be better than other Greater Lakes countries whose natural resources, mineral and precious metals wealth have turned from a blessing to a curse, with these countries slipping into unending civil wars.
With the passage of time, these wars turned into regional ones and into war-by proxy when certain countries and what is commonly known as Resources Stealing Networks, interfered in these conflicts as active elements.
On this, we quote Natsios who said, "International companies are racing for developing the huge south Sudan resources: rich soil, plenty irrigation water, vast and open fertile lands, plenty mineral resources, including valuable but depleting metals , such as gold, copper , diamond and coltan in addition to 75 percent of both north and south Sudan oil reserves.
According to experience, the inflow of capital and international companies are considered an element of corruption of the political class in many countries, particularly those newly born and fragile ones that are being ruled by former rebels who are not used to running a government.
Indeed, media reports published last July tell us that Norwegian Peoples Aid Society (NPAS), a non-profit Norwegian society, has revealed that some foreign governments, individuals, and companies have concluded deals with influential figures at Government of the State of South Sudan (GoSS) under which GoSS agreed to lease to them the most fertile lands in South Sudan for subsequent investment in the form of agricultural projects and bio-fuel production plants and the growing of vast areas of forests on an area estimated at 2.6 m hectares
In commenting on these reports, NPAS said that the figures are "shocking since the areas of some of these projects are tremendous and that "in addition, South Sudan is considered as one of the high-risk counties in terms of security".
Ironically, a new report released by Maplecroft, an international firm that is concerned with risks analysis has said under its terrorism risk index analysis has said the South Sudan, though it is the newest country in the world, occupies No 5 position in the list of the top countries that are most prone to terrorist attack.
The report added that although South Sudan is the newest country in the world, yet the job of maintaining security of the state has been entrusted to one of the biggest peace-keeping mission. The report attributed such situation to the rise in the number of terrorist attacks victim, noting that the average number of victims in each terrorist attack is 6.59. Further, according to UN reports, some 2,368 persons were killed in 330 incidents of violence at 9 out of 10 provinces in the State of South Sudan according to statistics for the period from January up to June of the current year only.
Considering a state confronting such volume of security threats, it would be very difficult for Europeans to accept it within their security umbrella. We must not forget that the Europeans had refused in the past to intervene for the protection or support of Georgia when the Russian army entered Ossetia in 2008 and that the war between the two countries took place close to European borders, a fact that prevented the NATO from intervening since its intervention would have had serious consequences on the welfare of European peoples.
Likewise, the intervention of the NATO in the State of South Sudan quagmire might shed more doubts on the deterring capabilities of the NATO, particularly if the nascent state in South Sudan should involve itself in regional wars or local conflicts.

A slip of the tongue?

So, can we say that Andrew Natsios’s thoughts about expanding the NATO protection umbrella to include South Sudan State a slip of the tongue or rather they are satanic thoughts in the making?
Many observers believe that Natsios’s statements might not find listening ears, particularly amongst Europeans. That such statements are coming from the US is good reason for Europeans to disregard them, since Europeans are still suspicious about US’s Imperialistic tendencies and the dangers involved for them.
The Europeans are more wary of the intimidation doctrine and crisis-making policies being adopted by the Americans in all parts of the world.
Moreover, the debt crisis that has cast its dark shadows on the US economy and that the debt crisis from which some European countries, such as Greece, Spain and Iceland are suffering and before that the global financial crisis that hit the West in 2008 with some European countries’ economies still battling to recover from it – all these factors makes US’s costly military expansion unacceptable whatever the justifications might be.

Largess of good doers!

In order to garnish the idea of establishing a strategic alliance between the west and the State of South Sudan, Natsios is calling for the changing of the stereotype image of the relations between the two parties. "during most the twentieth century epochs, the South Sudan has been seen almost unanimously by western partners as a helpless victim that needs international protection – which the west did- as a result of the brutality and aggressive policies of successive government in Khartoum", he said once. He added with confirmation that the alliance he is calling for would be welcome by the South and will send clear signals to any government in Khartoum that it could face retribution from the US and Europe if it attacked the south. He added that such alliance would be an element of deterrence.
Observers, however, believe Natsios scheme would be welcome by the new leaders of South Sudan for many reasons, including a strong desire for revenge form their historical enemy in the north as an entity and a society. In addition, Southern leaders have been accustomed during the rebellion years to heavily depend on the West’s donations.
Recently, commenting on these developments, Dr. Abdel Wahhab Al Affandi quoted an international official as saying that "the world might witness the birth of the first state that is being run by NGO’s".
Meanwhile, Natsios suggests that the alliance and the NATO’s security umbrella he is calling for would remove the pressure being put forth by young Southern military men who are demanding the new republic to wage an attack on the north to remove the government in Khartoum.
According to Natsios, such attitudes demonstrate the aggressive tendencies in south Sudan which should be stopped rather than encouraging them. Indeed, in a 2007 lecture following his resignation as US envoy for Sudan, Natsios had said some southern military leaders had disclosed to him that they intended to launch a military attack against the government of Khartoum.
However, it would be difficult for the west to convince the south to change from victim to partner since it has become used to a situation from which it makes a lot of profits.
According to Natsios, the new Republic of South Sudan needs long-term strategic allies for the common interests of both and not supporters to defend it on the ground that it is a victim.

By SMC, 7 hours 11 seconds ago

South Sudan: Africa’s newest nation is finding its footing

Posted: September 7, 2011 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Junub Sudan

By Karoli Ssemogerere

Posted Thursday, September 8 2011 at 00:00

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Many strange things have happened this summer. First has been the misreading of the weather. At very short notice the heavens opened and serious rain kept farmers busy in the fields during the month of July and first half of August. Of course, this rain has avoided locations where abuse of the environment has been harshest. The weatherman may not say it but the district of Kalangala, home to Bidco, has lost its crown as the rainiest district in the country. Kalangala in the 1990s had 220 rainy days a year.

Leaving America in the punitive mid-summer heat to tend to the fields, I was quite relieved to enjoy bearable weather. If these summer temperatures arrive in our region; temperatures on the scale of 110F- grave harm to forms of life as we know it are likely. The advance of the Sahara, while moderated, is not over. What I found extreme, however, was the increased chill in the morning. It felt like Kabale. Low temperatures cannot be good news for germination rates or fruiting. At an experimental plot a few miles from the city where myself and my family “forage” for food, strange things have happened. The coffee planted on marginal soils seems to be in a state of continuous flowering- confused by the new seasons.

I am typing my column this week though from a hallowed location– Africa’s newest nation– the Republic of South Sudan. Not much in travel advisories can prepare you for this pilgrimage. In downtown Juba, a digital traffic clock proclaims East Africa’s 6th state: a muted reaction perhaps to Khartoum’s application to join the East African Community.

Great cities tell their story from the sky. Cities on major rivers: Shanghai, Stockholm, London, Seoul, New York, etc are only rivaled in beauty by those sleeping by the ocean. Seventy per cent of the world’s population lives in these habitats. Juba is laid out like a grid. It appears from first impressions that despite its location as a landlocked country- Juba is a very costly city- the new government is insisting on, and has received the foundation of a very high quality urban road network. Most of the city is still unpaved; but the murram roads are wide and will be paved in due course. Juba’s airport is small and informal; luggage is delivered by hand on a few spare desks in the arrivals hall.

On the street when you ask the ordinary wanainchi how it feels to be independent; the answer is almost eternal gratitude. This nation has earned its place by shedding a lot of blood at the hands of its former colonial masters. In our childhood, we always heard of war in southern Sudan, false attempts at peace and a promise that seemed so far in the future. Today, apart from Arabic– the most important language of business in the new country– there are no signs left of the former colonial overlords. A discussion on South Sudan TV (South Sudan seems to have mastered the art of information diet), little in the form of headlines focuses on integrating Arabic speakers in the new South Sudan civil service who were trained in the north or the Middle East in Arabic in what will be an English-speaking nation.

Nothing comes cheap here: Internet access, transport, food after effects of a dollarised economy when Uncle Sam released boxes of money into circulation in a domino effect that provided false supports as far south as Uganda, delaying Uganda’s fiscal Armageddon through inflated asset prices and an unrealistic exchange rate. Banks are overwhelmed setting up shop alongside money changers waving crisp new South Sudan Pounds.

Our Minister of Labour Syda Bbumba maybe in political soup back home but her ministry needs to have concrete plans to manage Uganda’s biggest export in South Sudan so far- skilled and semi-skilled manpower. This export is likely to create political tension with our northern neighbour and is a result of a vulnerable economy back home. University graduates, technical people, doormen, porters are all here- a thumbs down to the high unemployment situation back home. Many are occupying positions in the downmarket economy that the South Sudanese will want for themselves as they settle down to build their country.

Enjoying a lunch one day, our conversation switched to the arts and sports. I asked my host who had written one of the world’s cheeriest anthems- the South Sudan National Anthem. It was written by music groups at the local university. When we shifted to sports, South Sudan’s plans were in basketball (height advantage included) and volleyball as the new nation makes it mark among its more established neighbours. Amen I can say- viva the new Republic:

Mr Ssemogerere, an attorney and social entrepreneur, practices law in New York. kssemoge

Natalina Malwal awarded Pan African Diaspora Community Award

Posted: September 7, 2011 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Junub Sudan


On September 2, 2011 the Montgomery County’s Offices of the County Executive and the African Community in the Greater Washington area awarded Ms. Natalina Malwal for their “OUTSTANDING VOLUNTEERS” award.

Ms. Natalina is an Executive Board Member and current President of The Southern Sudanese Community. She has served and lead the community in various capacities for the last several years. We are very proud of her, let’s all congratulate her on this wonderful achievement.

All the best,
Reec Akuak

The Southern Sudanese Community
Advocating — Mentoring — Nurturing

202.656.TSSC (8772)
Direct/Cell: 202.596.6009
Fax: 202.280.1007


South Sudan Job Vacancy:

Posted: September 7, 2011 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Jobs

Please directly contact the employer if you have any questions.

To anyone of interest, please circulate the following job vacancies:

· World Relief South Sudan is seeking a consultancy firms/companies/individuals wishing to to undertake the training of agriculture extension workers in Koch,Abiemnom and Mayom counties in Management .

· Malaria Consortium (MC) is looking for a Finance Assistant.

· CRS Livelihood Project Officer.


Reec Akuak


The Southern Sudanese Community

Advocating — Mentoring — Nurturing

202.656.TSSC (8772)

Direct/Cell: 202.596.6009

Fax: 202.280.1007

Terms of Reference for Management Training for Ext Workers.pdf
Advert for Finance & Admin Officer Aweil.pdf
Advert -Livihoodproject officer Torit Base.docx

Wikileaks: Sudan seeks U.S. help to normalize ties with Israel

Posted: September 7, 2011 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Junub Sudan

September 6, 2011 (WASHINGTON) – The Sudanese government conveyed to the United States in 2008 its desire to normalize ties with Israel, according to one of the diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks website.
The breathtaking revelation by the anti-secrecy website will likely cause a huge embarrassment to the Islamic government in Khartoum which prides itself as being a staunch supporter of the Palestinian people.
Top Sudanese officials including president Omer Hassan al-Bashir meet publicly with leaders of Islamic militant group Hamas who visit Khartoum.
The leaked document marked as confidential refers to a meeting between Bashir’s adviser Mustafa Osman Ismail and U.S. charge d’Affaires Alberto Fernandez on July 29, 2008. This was almost two weeks after the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor announced his intention to seek an arrest warrant for Bashir on ten counts of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur.
The Hague tribunal eventually issued the warrant against the Sudanese leader on all ten counts.
In his talks with Fernandez, Ismail accused the then U.S. assistant Secretary of State for African affairs of ordering the special envoy to Sudan Richard Williamson in June 2008 to end negotiations on bilateral talks that were ongoing between Khartoum and Washington.
Williamson at the time said that talks were suspended because leaders from the north and south were not serious about ending fighting in the disputed region of Abyei that has raised concerns about a return to civil war.
’’At this point the leadership of either side is not interested in meaningful peace,’’ Williamson said at the time.
The top U.S. diplomat in Sudan told Ismail as he was not present at the negotiations and as such he was not aware of this but added that he had seen zero evidence that this was the case with either Williamson or Frazer.
"We thought that Williamson was strong and could deliver, but we were wrong – now we will have to see what he will bring when he comes for his next visit" Ismail told Fernandez.
The presidential adviser said that prior to the bilateral discussions it was difficult to convince government hardliners such as Bashir’s assistant Nafie Ali Nafie about working with the U.S.
According to the cable, Ismail then became enthusiastic about the possibility of a breakthrough. As the discussions failed, said Ismail, the hardliners have gained more influence within the regime.
Bashir’s adviser then went on to say that the breakdown in the discussions have had a major impact on their foreign policy. He said that Khartoum drafted a strategy for working with the U.S. with immediate, intermediate, and long-term goals.
As an example, he stated that one aspect of this strategy included normalization of relations with Israel, because "if things were going well with the U.S., you might be able to help us with Israel, as they are your closest ally in the region".
A political analyst in Khartoum told Sudan Tribune that Ismail may have acted out of “desperation” to salvage the regime against the threat of the ICC.
“In an naive way, Ismail thought that he could lure the Americans by throwing the Israel [normalization] card thinking that the Americans would then quickly want to scrap Bashir’s arrest warrant. That was their last ditch attempt” said the analyst who did not want to be named.
Sudan routinely accuses Israel of fueling conflicts in the war ravaged country including the one in the western region of Darfur.
The Jewish state is believed to have conducted two airstrikes in Sudan in 2009 & 2011 that targeted suspected arms convoys and dealers carrying out smuggling operations of weapons into Gaza strip. The Sudanese defense minister Abdel-Rahim Mohamed Hussein vowed to repel any future attack.
Sudan does not recognize Israel and have ruled out the possibility of doing so. It has reacted with anger for quick steps taken by the new state of South Sudan towards establishing ties with Israel.
Last month the foreign ministry spokesperson Al-Obaid Marawih said Khartoum is concerned that Israel may want to use South Sudan to undermine Sudan’s stability. He also claimed that that ruling party in Juba continued to receive support from Israel to prevent Arab-Muslim expansion.
Ironically, Israel is home to thousands of Sudanese refugees and migrant workers who arrived on foot after crossing Egypt’s Sinai peninsula.
In August, local media reported the intention of state prosecutors to charge the Secretary General of Sudan People Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) over a visit he allegedly made to Tel Aviv.
The counts were to include spying, collaborating with an enemy state, sedition and war against the state and other codes related to violating the Immigration and Nationality law.

Relief of Presidential Advisors by Presidential Decree No. 32/2011
The President of the Republic H.E Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit issued Presidential Decree No. 32/2011 for the Relief of the following Presidential Advisors:

S/N Name in Full Position
1- Hon. Madam Rebecca Nyandeng De Mabior Advisor on Gender and Human Rights
2- Hon. Rt. Gen. Joseph Lagu Special Advisor
3- Hon. Telar Ring Deng Advisor on Legal Affairs
4- Hon. Tor Deng Mawin Advisor on Decentralization and Inter-Governmental Likages
5- Hon. Rev. Tijwong Hather Agwer Advisor on Religious Affairs

Reported By;
Thomas Kenneth Elisapana
Presidential Press Unit
Office of the President/ Juba


Appointment of Presidential Advisor by Presidential Decree No. 33/2011
The President of the Republic issued Presidential Decree No. 33/2011 for the appointment of the following Presidential Advisors in the Republic of South Sudan, and they are:
Name in Full
Hon. Madam Rebecca Nyandeng De Mabior
Advisor on Gender and Human Rights
Hon. Rtd Gen. Joseph Lagu
Special Advisor
Hon. Telar Ring Deng
Advisor on Legal Affairs
Hon. Tor Deng Mawien
Advisor on Decentralization and Inter-Governmental Linkages
Advisor on Religious Affairs
To be appointed
Advisor on Economic Affairs
To be appointed
Reported by:
Thomas Kenneth Elisapana
Presidential Press Unit
Office of the President of the Republic

Why Sudan wants to join the East Africa Community (EAC) before South Sudan

Posted: September 7, 2011 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Junub Sudan


The uprising in the Arab world, the secession of the south and conflict in South Kordofan and Darfur can only mean one thing; Sudan needs an anchor to avoid sinking under the wave of reforms.

For many years President General Omar al Bashir has kept Sudan on the strength of being located in a volatile neighbourhood.
To the north is Egypt which in the early 1990s was nearly taken over by Muslim militants now under the banner of the influential Muslim Brotherhood.

The West was worried that with their strongest ally in the Arab world -Hosni Mubarak, threatened, they rather ‘tolerate’ a hardliner Sudan but which is opposed to fundamentalist ideology.
Bashir knew this and kept strict control over Islamic fundamentalist leader Dr Hassan al Tourabi.

On one hand Bashir had continued the Jaffer Nimery policy of maintaining Sudan as a Muslim state but at the same time not allowing fundamentalist activity to thrive.
This perhaps more than anything gave him leverage over Tourabi since the west looked to Bashir as a lesser evil as it had more urgent business in Iraq and Afghanistan to sort out.

No wonder even when Sudan harboured Osama bin Laden, the US never used force to get rid of the terrorist but simply pressured him until Bin Laden left the country.
It was after Bin Lden took refugee in Afghanistan that the US attacked Bashir and even then only once.

To the west of Sudan lay other troubled neighbours like Chad and Libya. Chad had enough troubles while Gadhaffi was struggling to become the leader of the Arab world.
He had already been bombed in 1985 and was facing sanctions resulting from the Lockerbie bombing. Any alliance with him would draw the wrath of the west led by the United States.

Bashir played his cards well. He was already facing a war in the south and had Tourabi to mind in the capital.
Then there was the unresolved problem of Somalia where clan chiefs and warlords ensured that the country is ungovernable.

Bashir simply kept watch to ensure that Muslim fundamentalists do not link up with his own nationals to make Tourabi even stronger.
Bashir was relieved that the Ethiopia, Eritrean question in South east of Sudan was quickly resolved and although tensions remained, the resulting hostilities were no threat to Sudan since there were no Muslim fundamentalists to worry about and the SPLA was not close to Addis Ababa or Asmara.

It was the recent developments in 2005 that shifted policy and the strategy had to change.
Bin Laden had been chased out of Afghanistan, George Bush had in 2002 declared Sudan among the four nations rotating around an ‘Axis of Evil, ‘ signifying that they were promoting terrorism.

The other partners in the dock being North Korea, Iran and Iraq.
In 2003 the US attacked and overthrew Saddam Hussein. A lot of intimidation and propaganda continued against Iran and North Korea under the nuclear threat chapter but were only halted by Pyong Yangs’ insistence that it would retaliate with nuclear weapons against any threat to its sovereignty.

Meanwhile other developments were taking place. Saddam Hussein was found in a hole, ‘tried’ and executed on December 30, 2006. A year earlier in 2005, the warring parties ; The Sudan Peoples Liberation army (SPLA/M) and Khartoum signed a peace agreement after two-year ceasefire, ending 22 years of conflict.

This was to be followed by a referendum in January 2011 in which the people of South Sudan would vote to remain in Sudan or secede. The results are well known. A new state was created in the South and once Africa’s largest country lost its pride to the DR Congo.

But this wouldn’t be a problem if two more developments had not taken place.
The Arab uprising completely took Bashir by surprise. Worried that he himself could be a target, Khartoum watched helplessly as regime after regime north of Sudan fell or was on the verge of collapsing. And this happened as worries grew that Sudan will have to lose a huge chunk of its major source of income- oil- to the South.

Bashir stated unequivocally that he would not allow the fields in the disputed border region of Abyei to drift south.
To add insult to injury another hostile neighbour in Uganda kept discovering more oil. not a bad thing. but for a government in Khartoum which planned to use its refinery to bully the south into accepting favourable terms to Khartoum, this paused a great danger.

Oil quantities in Uganda were good enough to warrant a refinery for atleast 30 years. But with South Sudan lacking facilities, and with scars from the north still visible, Uganda posed a great opportunity to refine the South’s oil instead of working with a neighbour you cannot trust.

Refining oil in the north was akin to taking a meal prepared by a freshly divorced wife.
As if this was not bad enough as Juba was getting into celebratory mood for her hard earned independence on July 9, 2011, the US announced it had killed Bin Laden.

This was followed by another death on August 28 of the post bin Laden Al-Qaeda number two – Atiyah Abd Al-Rahman.
The events simply showed that Bashir was increasingly getting isolated and needed an anchor to survive.

First of all he belongs to the hardline school of ‘old guards’ who are facing fire from their nationals. Secondly he could not rely on fellow Arabs since many of them have openly supported the war against Gadaffi. Some even participated. Thirdly, the events meant that the US was succeeding in getting rid of its opponents even if friendly governments like in Egypt had to go or in Yemen were on the brink. Others like Syria and Libya were on the verge.

With sentiments in the ‘new found democracies’ going against long serving dictators, only time would tell when Bashir’s turn would arrive.
On top of this is the reality that the South would soon be admitted to the East African Community and with this would come a huge market for oil, the refinery in the north would practically close down; the Chinese would abandon Khartoum in favour of Uganda and the South (Cnooc is among companies interested in drilling Uganda’s oil).

Bashir would not wait to go the Gadaffi or Mubarak way. He realized he needed a partner to survive the tide and East Africa seems the only way to go.
The odds are high here. First, Bashir would get influence and know exactly what the South would be planning and forestall any attempts to undermine the North either economically or militarily.

The other reason is the fact that East Africa was becoming a big economic bloc second to Sadcc. The Congo is already knocking, Egypt had applied before the revolution. Any country nearby needed neighbours to survive the tough economic conditions.

Still there is the South Kordofan and Darfur question to be resolved. After independence by the South, South Kordofan stepped up efforts to claim self determination. This only confirmed Bashir’s fear that independence for South Sudan could lead other breakaways.

It is only a matter of time that both Darfur and South Kordofan break off. This would practically end Bashir’s National Islamic salvation Front’s hold onto power. He needed time to delay this as much as possible.

Those who watched the South’s Independence celebrations on July 9 on TV can remember the smiling face of Tourabi. The smile simply indicated that Tourabi was happy that Bashir had lost a political battle and was weakened. If another battle in Darfur and south Kordofan is lost, the General would be finished.

But it is easier to push away a general like Gadaffi than a political- General like Bashir – hence the decision to turn to East Africa to retain power.
From here Khartoum intelligence would easily monitor all neighbours and ensure Darfur or South Kordofan do not get any support that Khartoum deems dangerous.

Hence in the wake of Arab revolt, a triumphant United States military operation in Afghanistan and new neighbours in the south, Bashir has realized that an alliance with southern neighbours could provide a better solution to his worries and prolong his grip on power.