Steve Paterno: Demise of Rebel Leader George Athor Huge Blew to South Sudan rebellion

The leader of one of the major South Sudan rebel groups, Lieutenant General George Athor turned up dead, hundreds of miles away from his remote rebel base. In apparent shootout at the border county of Morobo in Central Equatoria State, the rebel leader is gunned down by the South Sudanese armed forces.

Gen. Athor has been a decorated fighter with the SPLM/A during the last South-North Sudanese civil war. With the 2005 peace agreement, he rose into the rank of a lieutenant general and subsequently promoted to the position of deputy chief of staff. However, in 2010 Sudanese general elections, Gen. Athor resigned from his military post and decided to contest for gubernatorial position in Jonglei State.

After the announcement of the elections results, Gen. Athor disputed the outcome, having been declared the loser. He then went on launching a rebel movement, vowing to fight against and topple a “tribal corrupt government in Juba.” Among his demands for peaceful resolution is immediate dissolution of the government of Jonglei state, which he believes is illegal. None of the efforts in trying to pursue peace with him panned out, including a repeated amnesty extended to him by the South Sudan government.

Being the highest ranking military personnel to have ever rebelled and with his military experience, Gen. Athor has been trying so hard to assert himself as the defacto leader of the several rebel groups, operating in South Sudan. Unfortunately, Gen. Athor’s efforts of trying to consolidate all the rebel groups have been in vain, as there are many factors working against him.

First, all the rebel groups in South Sudan came about as a result of local disputes and conflicts. Even though all of them claim to be fighting the government of South Sudan, they have little in common with one another, due to their origins being very much local.

Second, since these rebellions have local origins, local and ethnic loyalties become their driving forces for support. Therefore, Gen. Athor who is from an ethnic Dinka, has thus far failed to gain any support beyond his home county of Pigi in Jonglei State. He was not even able to connect with the well equipped and well armed Nuer group from Unity State.

Third, the regime in Khartoum, which is the sponsor of all these rebel groups sees that it is in its best interest to keep these rebels apart, so as the regime can exert greater influence over them, individually. Although the regime in Khartoum offers assistance to Gen. Athor, it does not in anyway willing to support his ambition of consolidating all the rebel groups under his command.

Fourth, Gen. Athor rebel headquarters is located in strategically bad place. He is basically surrounded by his enemies. Access from and to his stronghold is virtually impassable. This does not just denied him access for potential recruits, but also blocked him supply and escape routes.

Fifth, the South Sudanese rebels in general lack popular political support. This is largely in part due to strong local affinity of the rebel groups. Important political figures also refuse to support the rebellions. Peter Abdulrahman Sule, a leader of United Democratic Front (UDF) recently made a futile attempt in trying to add credence into the momentum of the rebellion by launching his rebel group in Central Equatoria State. Sule’s addition into rebel ranks would have casted a different face into the rebel movement, given his political experience and ethnic background. However, the militarily inexperience, rebel wannabe was roughed up by the authorities in Juba just right before his plans could materialize. Now he is languishing in jail for his crime. The possibilities for the rebels to gain political popularity within South Sudan is very slim at the moment.

It is therefore no any wonder that Gen. Athor would have to travel far from his base in search for support, given all these factors working against him. With Gen. Athor ultimate demise, the hope for rebels unity is dealt a great blow as there is no one with his stature and ambition to follow up in his failed attempts. Even though the rebel activities will continue, they will remain scattered and localized groups.

Those in Unity state will likely continue to dominate the rebel fields, because they have strategic access for support from North and will maintain their loyalties among themselves to forge on. Nonetheless, Gen. Athor’s forces must come to an end as the government of South Sudan needs to take advantage of the situation by mounting both political and military pressure against the group.

By Brian Adeba

If there is anything we can learn from the death of George Athor, it is our leaders’ penchant to consolidate leadership around one personality at the expense of grooming would-be leaders. Athor was the sole visible leader in his movement. And this was a deliberate design that arises, most likely, out of a dictatorial, egoistic stance. Athor’s death is almost akin to John Garang’s demise. With the latter, there was no grooming of a visible leadership alternative. This is the fate that afflicts Athor’s rebels now.

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