South Sudan Facing Tribal Dilemma
By Jamie Ingram/Doha
Escalating violence in South Sudan’s oil-producing Jonglei state vividly highlights the severe challenges facing the newly-independent country.
Six months after gaining independence, the recent clashes echo pre-independence concerns that without the unifying factor of conflict with the north, South Sudan’s volatile tribes would descend into internecine violence. While there is some truth to this notion, there is more to the situation than inherent tribal mistrust.
Thus far the Juba government has been unable to restore stability and has classified Jonglei as a disaster zone. The UN reports estimate more than 50,000 have been displaced in clashes while local commissioners claim that more than 3,000 people have been killed in the past week.
Far from being unusual, this is merely the latest, if bloodiest, violence to afflict Jonglei in recent months. Until he was killed by government forces last month, rebels loyal to General George Athor had been engaged in an insurgency against the Juba government since April 2010.
The latest clashes have prompted observers to once again raise the spectre of inter-tribal ethnic violence; a fear which has deep resonance in this part of Africa.
However, this is a somewhat simplistic take on events and blaming the violence solely on tribal differences diverts government and international attention away from issues whose resolution could ease tensions.
This is by no means the first instance of clashes between the two tribes who inhabit the swampy territory of Jonglei. Clashes between the two are often prompted by conflict over water or cattle. South Sudan is an extremely poor country despite its oil reserves and cattle represent a vital source of income, not to mention prestige, for many of its citizens.
Basic economic factors such as unemployment are, therefore, a key driving force behind South Sudan’s tribal conflicts. No simple solution exists as the economy remains overly dependent on oil revenues and the country’s limited infrastructure severely hampers the business environment, while it suffers from one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world.
The lengthy civil wars between the north and south, while ending in 2005, continues to severely impact both countries. In the south, the proliferation of small arms among the general population contributes significantly to events such as those occurring in Jonglei, greatly raising the risk of bloodshed.
It has also led to the militarisation of many South Sudanese to the extent that the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) is comprised of up to 200,000 people. Demobilisation is rightly seen as a key priority for President Salva Kiir’s government in order to reduce expenditure, even though this brings with it significant risk.
One difficulty concerns the demoralisation of the army with the incorporation of the rebels into the vacated positions. Last week Jonglei state officials announced that they were hopeful up to 1,000 rebels formerly loyal to General Athor would be reintegrated into the SPLA.
For those effectively sacked from the army, this can stir up bitter resentment and it diminishes the legitimacy of the government and the armed forces.
The government’s inability to prevent this latest violence and protect its civilian population has underscored its lack of sovereign control throughout much of the country. Through its apparent unwillingness to intervene fully in tribal violence the government risks further losing legitimacy, while such a policy sends a message to its population suggesting that rather than rely on the central state to resolve conflicts, they should act themselves which results in increasing concerns of further escalations of violence.
Fundamentally, the fragile nature of South Sudan’s society necessitates caution from the Dinka-dominated government keen to ensure it is not seen as favouring particular tribes. While understandable, the disadvantages of such a strategy are especially evident given recent events.
Such internal turmoil has wide ranging ramifications for South Sudan, diverting the government’s attention from implementing vital economic reforms to improve the business environment, hampering infrastructure development and deterring foreign investors and businesses. Such a vicious circle would further deny the government funds vital for state-building.
The unfortunate truth is that South Sudan will likely continue to experience similar outbreaks of violence between tribes as a result of the economic challenges facing the country and a proliferation of small arms. There is no quick fix for such problems; inherent structural issues such as the lack of education, employment, infrastructure and health services must be targeted and only then can the spectre of tribal violence be dismissed. Such developments cannot be implemented quickly.
*** Jamie Ingram is a Researcher at RUSI, the Royal United Services Institute, Qatar .
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