Archive for February 24, 2012


Sudan-UN Joint Assessment Reveals Humanitarian Situation in South Kordofan is 
MarketWatch (press release)
Sudan continues to call on South Sudan to recognize its negative role in this crisis and cease its support to the rebels. And in order for the US and those pushing for an intervention to play a constructive role, they must look at the facts on the 

Sudan-UN Joint Assessment Reveals Humanitarian Situation in South Kordofan is 
Sacramento Bee
By Embassy of the Republic of the Sudan WASHINGTON, Feb. 24, 2012 — /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — The humanitarian situation in South Kordofan that has garnered international concern, and which some have now exploited to push an agenda of intervention, 

South Sudan expels Chinese oil firm boss
Mmegi Online
JUBA: The world’s newest nation has expelled its first person – the head of South Sudan’s biggest oil company, the Chinese and Malaysian-owned Petrodar. The Chinese national, Liu Yingcai, was asked to leave following an investigation into Khartoum’s 

Sudan’s survey says South Kordofan’s humanitarian situation “normal”
Sudan Tribune
February 23, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – A survey conducted by government and international groups inSudan’s war-battered state of South Kordofan has shown “good” levels of food security and “normal” humanitarian conditions, an official said on Monday as UN 
Nation, Uganda Border Opens After Drivers’ Protests
AllAfrica.com
By Dhieu Williams, 24 February 2012 Juba — South Sudan Nimule and Uganda border of Attiak has been opened yesterday following two days closure by drivers from Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia who protested overloaded charges of taxes imposed on them 
Analysis: South Sudan future dicey after oil money loss
Reuters
By Ulf Laessing and Hereward Holland | JUBA (Reuters) – In an air-conditioned Toyota showroom packed with half a dozen off-road vehicles in South Sudan’s capital, dealer Desmond McCue is wondering whether the shutdown of the country’s oil production 

South Sudan: US Congressman to Discuss Recent Visit to Yida Refugee Camp
AllAfrica.com
Washington, DC — Frank Wolf (R-VA), a longtime advocate for Sudan and co-chairman of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, just returned from a trip to the world’s newest country, South Sudan, where he visited a refugee camp in Yida filled with men, 

MSF Projects in South Sudan in 2011–12
Doctors Without Borders
MSF has been working in the region that today constitutes the Republic of South Sudan since 1983. In 2011, MSF responded to several emergencies, including large-scale displacement, refugee influxes, inter-communal fighting, alarming nutrition 

Mother and Son to Marry (Zimbabwe)

Posted: February 24, 2012 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Junub Sudan

Mother and Son to Marry (Zimbabwe).


Jonglei State – Civilian Disarmament to Commence in One Week

AllAfrica.com –
Juba — A comprehensive disarmament of the civilian population in the volatile Jonglei state will begin on 1 March, the South Sudan government have announced. Salva Mathok Gengdit, South Sudan’s deputy minister of interior told the press on Thursday 
eNews Park Forest –
UBA, South Sudan–(ENEWSPF)–February 23, 2012. The government of the Republic of South Sudan should delay a disarmament campaign in Jonglei state until relations between the state’s three major communities begin to stabilize and security can be 
Oman Daily Observer –
By David Stanway – CHINA’S oil and commodities firms are set to tread more carefully in Africa after being stung by kidnappings, seizures of cargo and, most recently, the expulsion of a chief executive. But they won’t pull back.
BusinessWeek –
By Jared Ferrie Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Petrodar Operating Co., operator of an oil pipeline that runs from South Sudan through Sudan to the Red Sea, named Baidzawi Chemat as its acting president after the southern government expelled his predecessor, 
Bloomberg –
Petrodar Operating Co., operator of an oil pipeline that runs from South Sudan through Sudan to the Red Sea, named Baidzawi Chemat as its acting president after the southern government expelled his predecessor, Liu Yingcai.
Reuters Africa – ‎
By Ulf Laessing and Hereward Holland JUBA Feb 24 (Reuters) – In an air-conditioned Toyota showroom packed with half a dozen off-road vehicles in South Sudan’s capital, dealer Desmond McCue is wondering whether the shutdown of the country’s oil …
By Ulf Laessing and Hereward Holland

JUBA Feb 24 (Reuters) – In an air-conditioned Toyota showroom packed with half a dozen off-road vehicles in South Sudan’s capital, dealer Desmond McCue is wondering whether the shutdown of the country’s oil production industry means the bonanza is over.

The cars on sale range from a basic $50,000 pick-up truck to the lavish GXR V8 model that costs $84,000 — plus an extra $10,000 to have it flown in.

“Everybody is worried, but at this stage I don’t know how it will affect sales,” said McCue.

His Crown Auto Trade dealership has been selling between five and ten GXRs per month, mostly to top officials, who are said to be given an allowance of two cars each in a country the size of France with just 100 km (70 miles) of paved roads.

But seven months after declaring independence from Sudan under a 2005 peace deal, those days of lavish spending on cars may be over after Juba suspended its 350,000 barrels per day of oil production in a row with Khartoum over pipeline payments.

Having lost 98 percent of its income overnight, there are fears the government may struggle to fund salaries or to pay for imports in the coming months, threatening the stability of the world’s newest nation.

“No one knows how long the government can hold out, but I don’t know of any government that has smoothly shrunk its budget by 98 percent in a matter of months,” Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, an analyst at Control Risks, said during a visit to Juba.

Much of South Sudan’s stability depends on the morale of its bloated army, a constellation of former militia groups estimated by some officials to number 200,000 soldiers.

The government insists it will not cut salaries to the military though, apparently aware that any such move could be extremely dangerous.

“There’s so little cohesion in the army that it’s only the pay that keeps them loyal. Security forces will be the highest priority. They’ll cut ministers’ salaries before they touch the army,” said a defense analyst who asked not to be identified.

Inflation, currently hovering around 50 percent, is likely to jump further, possibly stoking unrest in a country where 2.7 million people – or one third of the population – already rely on food aid.

“Before independence, malaria pills cost 15 pounds. Now it’s 35,” pharmacist Simon Fal said, while sipping tea in a makeshift road cafe.

Like most others, Fal supports the decision to shut down the wells in order to stop Sudan seizing southern oil as part of an ongoing struggle by the mainly Christian and animist South to cement its independence from the mostly Muslim north.

“All people agreed in the shutting down of the oil because it’s about dignity. If we maintain our freedom we will gain dignity,” he said.

But diplomats wonder whether Juba can survive longer than three or four months as talks stall over how much the landlocked South should pay Khartoum to use its pipelines and Red Sea port.

“The situation is very critical,” said Eric Solheim, minister of environment and international development from Norway, which is advising both Sudans on oil issues.

“What is clear is if over time revenues will go down this way, they will have to make deep cuts,” he said.

Social pressures could increase in the next few weeks with the return of 700,000 South Sudanese from Sudan where their legal status expires in April.

Juba will have to find housing and jobs for the returnees, stretching resources at a time when the government is struggling to build up functioning ministries.

Even if both sides do strike an oil deal, South Sudan might need substantial aid anyway as it could take up to six months to restart oil production after pipes were flushed with water to avoid sludge forming.

FIRST SIGNS OF STRAINS

Oil is the lifeline of both economies, but the South is more vulnerable because it has almost no other industries to fall back on beyond the oil sector. It also relies heavily on imported goods which are brought in for a hefty premium on unpaved roads from Uganda, Kenya and Sudan. More than 90 percent of its goods come in that way.

No public data exists on dollar reserves. Juba has contracted oil sales worth $3 billion since July but has not said where the revenues have gone. No reserves were mentioned in the 2011 budget.

When Information Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin announced austerity measures after a cabinet meeting last week, he refused to allow journalists to look at the 2012 budget draft in his hands.

The government says it is confident it can weather the loss of oil with an austerity programme and better tax enforcement. But the first signs of strain can already be seen.

The central bank has roughly halved dollar allocations to local lenders and restricted money transfers to Uganda and Kenya, bankers say.

“There is a sense of panic among government and central bank officials who meet with private banks every days to discuss raising new funds,” said a senior banker in Juba.

“They have little experience with financial tools such as treasury bills and now need to learn it the hard way,” he said, declining to be identified.

The cabinet plans to cut non-salary expenditure by 50 percent. But that might not be enough to make up for the loss of oil revenues as salaries make up roughly half the budget, meaning the total cuts only amount to 25 percent in real terms.

Even if Juba managed to keep paying army salaries, analysts fear the austerity plan will eat into funding required to build up efficient state bodies and fight corruption.

“There is a serious concern that funding for the operations of oversight institutions like the Audit Chamber and the parliament will be cut first, institutions which are ever more critical during times of austerity or crisis,” said Dana Wilkins at transparency group Global Witness.

Rampant corruption and cronyism have hampered development in South Sudan, where few roads exist outside Juba. Power is concentrated in the hands of former guerillas who dislike scrutiny.

People in Juba’s dusty streets say they back the oil shutdown and are confident they can cope as many basic services are provided by the United Nations and aid agencies.

“The oil doesn’t reach normal people. We don’t have power, running water or anything, so the shutdown won’t affect us,” said Malakal Dual, a local pastor.

“It will affect government institutions and those few people who drive cars,” he said, sitting by a busy road while a boy polished his shoes.

But an Arab grocery merchant from Sudan working in Juba cautioned: “Without oil it will be very bad.”

Norway’s Solheim said the austerity measures will affect many people.

“There are many people in indirect dependency on the state budget because those who are on the state payroll support their family and others and it also may affect farming,” he said.

FEW OPTIONS

Diplomats expect no quick breakthrough at oil talks in Addis Ababa, which restart on March 6, because the two sides’ negotiating positions remain far apart. The South is willing to pay around $1 a barrel as a transit fee but Khartoum wants as much as $36.

South Sudan says it wants to build alternative pipelines to Kenya or Djibouti to end its dependency on Sudan. But Solheim is sceptical.

“I see very few people in the international community who consider this feasible in the short-term,” he said during a visit to Khartoum.

As most oil fields were overpumped by Khartoum in the run-up to independence, a pipeline would probably be only viable if new finds are made.

The government hopes that France’s Total will make new discoveries in Jonglei. But tribal violence there has hampered exploration. State funds to aid exploration in undeveloped places like Jonglei are likely to be less forthcoming under the new austerity plan.

Experts are also sceptical about plans to borrow abroad using oil as a guarantee since the oil cannot currently be sold.

“This would be possible only with very high interest rates,” said Harry Verhoeven, a Sudan expert. (Reporting by Ulf Laessing and Hereward Holland. Edited by Andrew Osborn)

Oil Transport from South Sudan to the Kenyan Coast

Posted: February 24, 2012 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Economy

This is a great read from Eric Reeves and Sharon Hutchinson as an alternative to the oil pipeline. At the very least it should start a good debate about the possible alternatives to a better economic future for RSS.

sudan's oil .jpg sudan’s oil .jpg
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on-oil-transport-to-kenya.pdf on-oil-transport-to-kenya.pdf
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On oil transport to Kenya.doc

Petrodar Names New Acting Head After South Sudan Expulsion
BusinessWeek
24 (Bloomberg) — Petrodar Operating Co., operator of an oil pipeline that runs from South Sudanthrough Sudan to the Red Sea, named Baidzawi Chemat as its acting president after the southern government expelled his predecessor, Liu Yingcai.

Questions Over Progress Against the LRA
AllAfrica.com
In 2011, the US deployed about 100 troops to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Central African Republic (CAR), South Sudan and Uganda to assist the region’s military forces in killing or capturing Kony and his senior command, following President  
“On Sudan and South Sudan, the situation is increasingly complex and dangerous 
Coastweek
South Sudan has recently experienced violence between ethnic groups in Jonglei state that have a history of fighting over cattle and resources. Ban said that the UN is monitoring the current tensions “with grave concern.” “The mission on the ground 

Jonglei State – Civilian Disarmament to Commence in One Week
AllAfrica.com
Juba — A comprehensive disarmament of the civilian population in the volatile Jonglei state will begin on 1 March, the South Sudan government have announced. Salva Mathok Gengdit, South Sudan’s deputy minister of interior told the press on Thursday 

Sudanese Rebels Sign Deal for Aid in Two Embattled States
BusinessWeek
Fighting in the states has intensified since South Sudan seceded on July 9 and took control of three-quarters of the former state’s oil output of 490000 barrels a day. President Umar al-Bashir’s government is battling members of the SPLM- North, 
South Sudan’s Kiir forms austerity committee as oil row continues
Sudan Tribune
February 23, 2012 (JUBA) – South Sudan’s president Salva Kiir Mayardit has appointed a fifteen member committee to decide on the austerity measures needed to keep the nascent government functioning after loosing 98% of its income through the loss of 

Jonglei state: civilian disarmament to commence in one week
Sudan Tribune
February 23, 2012 (JUBA) – A comprehensive disarmament of the civilian population in the volatile Jonglei state will begin on 1 March, the South Sudan government have announced. Victims of ethnic violence in Jonglei state in South Sudan wait in line at 

African Markets – Factors to watch on Feb 24
Reuters
SOUTH SUDAN OIL PIPELINE South Sudan’s plans to build a pipeline to Kenya or Djibouti to end dependency on Sudan’s oil industry seems unrealistic in the short-term, showing the need to find a deal with Sudan over oil payments, a Norwegian minister said 
JX confirms South Sudan crude cargo to be discharged at Kiire terminal
Platts
An Aframax tanker laden with South Sudanese crude that has waited for almost 10 days off the coast of Miyazaki in southern Japan has now moved close to JX Nippon Oil & Energy’s Kiire oil terminal, according to ship tracking tool Platts CTrack Friday.
US cites progress in shadowy Africa military mission
South Bend Tribune
The US troops, mostly Special Forces, hope to speed the hunt for fugitive LRA leaderJoseph Kony, and operate with the militaries of Uganda, the Central African Republic (CAR), South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)across some of 
Danger to China of ‘desperation’ over two Sudans
Financial Times
Sir, With reference to your editorial “A Chinese puzzle” (February 21): the idea of a Chinese policy shift from “non-interference” to deeper engagement in South Sudan and the wide east African region is interesting but deserves a more careful scrutiny.