OilProduction Resumption Has Become an On and Off Affair
OilProduction Resumption Has Become an on and off…Event
By: Eng. Paul Tethloach Dak
Date: November/28th/2012
OilProduction Resumption Has Become an on and off…Event
Once upon a time in Nuer tale was a white-strive black crow came to a dark-black crow and said to him ‘kill your mother since I had already killed mine’, while in fact didn’t kill his mother but hidden her somewhere. Instantly, the poor dark-black feathered crow went on and killed his mother, but right away the white-strive black crow laughed loudly to silly dark-black crow, and brought his mother out from hiding. And the silly dark crow started crying mourning for his deceased mother for the rest of its live. Our leadership is right by warning of the delay in oil flow resumption. How would a different nation disarm fighters of a different country, and even if South Sudan has capacity to do that, but will such a move be viewed as the violation of international law, which in other words an interference into other country’s affairs?
The reality is that Khartoum wants to weaken the new nation one way around if heeded to their cheap demands. It was not long ago calling us insects and promised to make our government collapse, and this is exactly the game Khartoum currently is playing. Assume, our arm force goes and disarm the Northern rebels, then, what is the guarantee that Khartoum will respect the other deals? Inter-alia; Abyei issue still stands unresolved, and 1800km border not demarcated. Khartoum will insist on claiming Abyei as its territory though the international arbitration court ruled it out in South Sudan’s favor. This alone indicates Khartoum is yet beating drums of wars, so disarming Northern rebels will just make Khartoum ready to one day fight only one front, but our leadership is more than smart to detect that dirty demands by Khartoum.
Of course, Omer Hassan Al-Bashir is in a fearful state of mind since his indictment by the ICC, and wants to hang on power for a while perhaps his natural death arrives. His afraid that the existent of Northern-rebels threats his own safety and that is why always makes the security arrangement the top priority during negotiating table. His afraid of one day being handcuff and send to ICC by anyone changing his regime. A theory of personal interest is more important than that of state affairs. But what his and close aids failed to equate properly is that allowing South-Sudan oil flowing through Khartoum pipeline would in fact strengthened Juba-Khartoum relationship, and that may make him reigns as he wishes:
Khartoum will acquire weapons through the oil tariffs, and other transit money to fight the Northern-rebels
Omer personal life will be secured by retaining power
Khartoum’s economy will improve substantially
Juba government in other hand, seeing oil money coming back to the new nation which is in dire need of such income to build the nation will automatically cease any support might have been giving to the so called Northern-rebels in order to build its longing infrastructure projects for its people.
However, these deals could not come as forcing agreements by Khartoum but allowing nature taking its own course may make them achievable.
Juba-Plan B
Given Khartoum’s attitude; however, the government in Juba should not put its eggs in one basket. Plans such as constructing East Africa pipeline or railway to evacuate the crude should not be trashed in bin with this Khartoum chameleon style. More refineries are to be built to at least generate some income and be regionally exporter of refined by-products. Invest part of this money in agriculture sector by allocating 10 large scale farms in all ten states, and be a food secured nation. Also connect all ten states with highways so that goods and business reach its destination in less than a day.
May God bless South Sudan!
The writer is a Senior Planner for Exploration and Development and lives in Juba, South Sudan, and can be reached at: ptethloach@yahoo.com
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