On the Oil Resumption: A Light at the End of the Tunnel or Khartoum’s Mental Play as Usual?
“We have no guarantee that oil flowing through the Republic of Sudan will reach its intended destination… we cannot allow assets, which clearly belong to the Republic of South Sudan to be subject to further diversion… For this reason, I call upon this august house to support the decision of the Council of Ministers to stop the flow of oil and search for alternative sources of funding to manage government projects,” Said President Kiir on January 23rd, 2012.
By PaanLuel Wël, Juba City, South Sudan.
Amidst the interminable woes dogging the infant Republic of South Sudan since it brazenly decided to shut down oil production in January 2012, there finally appears to be a dim light at the end of the darkest tunnel—the purported resumption of the oil export through Port Sudan within three weeks.
In as much as our past dealings with Khartoum are highly suspect and thus unreliable, one is compelled this time to notice something markedly different about this latest ‘agreement’ between Juba and Khartoum. Firstly, the Khartoum government has already commenced amending their ‘national budget to reflect the recent oil agreement with Juba.’ Secondly, the two countries have reportedly completed troop withdrawal from their respective disputed borders. Thirdly, for the first time, traders in the Sudan are talking about the ‘US dollar losing ground to Sudanese Pound in the black market.’ All these happenstances are taking place in the Republic of the Sudan, not in Juba.
You gotta believe them because they are the telltale signs of Khartoum having gotten tired of playing its usual card of diplomatic deceptions in the international arena and political manipulations of South Sudan. Indeed, too many agreements have been dishonorably dishonored between Juba and Khartoum since independence, but this might be, just might be, the end of that well-rehearsed and badly played game on the part of Khartoum, at the expense of the poor and the helpless baby Republic of JUWAMA.
That the closure of oil, one that I foolishly supported on nationalistic grounds, has gravely affected the economy of South Sudan is self-evident.
Congrats President Kiir,
In my opinion, this is the best decision that GROSS has to take given all options available to it. In fact, it is the best decision ever made in Juba since 2005!! I fully support the resolution because Khartoum is behaving like a thug in total disregard to international norms and the spirit of neighborliness. We rather borrow our way into another pipeline, no matter how long it may take, than tolerating blatant midday robbery of our national resources by Khartoum in collusion with the Chinese and other hungry-oil-seekers who have the power to bear on Khartoum belligerence but chose not to. Let see what the Chinese response would be now that oil is shut down. Did you notice how quickly they reacted when Khartoum dared to shut down the pipeline but opt to look the other way when Khartoum was stealing our oil? That is not friendship; it is Neo-colonization! Oil wells, economically speaking, can be used as mortgages, to borrow from the international community as the new pipeline route is being constructed. The borrowed money could be used to run the government till things settle down.
PaanLuel Wel (January 23rd, 2012)
What is unclear though is who has been affected the most between the poor and the rich, and who in particular should be celebrating the most about the grand re-opening of the oil pipeline? Is South Sudan different from its pre-independence state? Besides the National Flag, the National Anthem and the prestigious seat at the United Nations in New York City, are South Sudanese now better off economically than they were during the war of liberation?
These are seminal questions considering the state and the nature of corruption, tribalism and nepotism in South Sudan. The oil that is kept underground till our house is properly put in order is much preferable to the one flowing to enrich only the ‘chosen few’ whose ‘national headache’ do not go beyond the horizon of their stomachs’ appeal.
The second major worry is this: what course of actions would Juba take should Khartoum, basking in the full knowledge that Juba won’t dare to shut down the oil, start pilfering the oil again? What guarantees are already secured to ward off such eventualities? How does one go about guaranteeing the guarantees when one is confronted with a belligerent pariah state as the Sudan is?
By all measures, it seems South Sudan is only advancing, sorely unprepared and ill informed, to phase two of the circus, where it has, just like in the first phase, none of the plausible solutions on its fingertips. Caution, rather than celebration, should be our guiding salutation to the grand re-opening of the oil pipeline, should it materialize this time round.
PaanLuel Wël (paanluel2011@gmail.com) is the Managing Editor of PaanLuel Wël: South Sudanese Bloggers: He can be reached through his Facebook page, Twitter Account or on the blog: http://paanluelwel2011.wordpress.com/
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