What is Hot in South Sudan Today? Comprehensive Situation Analysis and Recommendations
By Malith Alier
The hottest topics in South Sudan are too clear for all to agree on them without much ado. The new country which has just started to grow up was envisaged to experience teething problems of its own making as asserted by independent observers. Above all, the country has failed to plan the path designed to avoid coups and mutinies or all out rebellions that befell other African nations immediately after independence.
There is already enough discourse about corruption, tribalism/regionalism, land grabbing, and militia integration. The other side of the same discourse that has largely been ignored is the outcome of the parameters above. Issues like coup/mutiny, ethnic wars, revamped tribalism/regionalism, power struggle, and international community perspective about the country. These constitute what is hot in South Sudan today.
Immediately following the events of December 15th, the international community led by IGAD or Intergovernmental Authority on Development descended on the country with speed to resolve a conflict that is about to engulf the whole nation. This conflict has a potential to destroy the usually referred to as a new nation to a Stone Age level.
The strong intervention by IGAD is a gesture of goodwill. Never before, has an African regional organization moved with similar speed to try to resolve an internal problem in a matter of days. All South Sudanese in the government and rebels should appreciate IGAD and AU for this rare gesture of goodwill and accept initiatives to resolve matters once immediately.
As much as South Sudanese welcome the International intervention, there are two interventionist suggestions this author feels uncomfortable with; the pressure release of coup detainees and foreign military intervention. Why put so much pressure on a sovereign State to release rebels who have staged overthrow of elected government? Where is it in the world, people are accused, detained and released with no charges about the crime committed? As for the foreign military intervention, they have at least saved the lives of their trapped citizens which is the primary reason they came for. They have also saved countless lives of South Sudanese in the villages on the way to Juba. The world had at least witnessed the utter destruction in the main towns of Malakal, Bentiu and Bor inflicted by the merciless and lawless rebel forces. This warrants intervention by external friendly forces to save physical infrastructure and above all the capital city from such destructive intention by the rebels.
The external pressure to release rebel detainees reminds us of a similar pressure mounted on the country in April 2012 on the occasion of Panthou/Higlig capture by the SPLA from the same actors. The government should send them a strong message that this is not about USA, UN or humanitarian work, it is about sovereignty and the law of the country. The USA and the UN denied it was a coup and are adding insult to injury by pressing for release of detainees. South Sudan cannot go by the dictates of the UN and USA whenever, national issues arise. These issues need national solutions for the country to move away from ensnaring radar of super powers with different agenda. One wonders why the event of 1991 was accepted as a coup unlike the 2013 similar event by the same man, Riek. The 2013 is event closer to the power than the august 1991 virtual bush coup. This writer believes that the way he staged a coup in the bush is the same way he did in 2013.
Call it a coup or otherwise, this war has been dubbed as a ‘’senseless war’’ by both sides of the conflict. This might be the view of other South Sudanese friends and well wishers as well as regional organizations like IGAD and AU. There is hardly a single dependable reason to have started it in the first place.
However, there exist two political thoughts about whether it was an attempted coup d’état or not. One version is that of the government and it supporters. The government contends that Riek and his group planned the coup long before July 2013 cabinet’s dismissal including himself as Vice President. It was rumored that those coup plotters distributed money to army soldiers in Ghieda and some soldiers who fell victims were found with money in their pockets in the form of US Dollars and South Sudanese Pounds. It is further said that there was no forced disarmament of Nuer Presidential guards as put forward by rebels and their supporters. What happened was that ethnic Nuer presidential guards forced their way to loot weapons from military store to fight on the fateful night of December 15 2013. This version was confirmed by the General in charge of the Tiger Division on 25th January 2014. The General highlighted that no soldiers are allowed to have guns except those on duty. All weapons and ammunitions are kept away in stores at all times. So there was no order disarmament at all. The other version is that the Nuer presidential guards were forcefully disarmed leaving others with their guns, something that has caused the rebellion.
The failed coup deniers have never realized that the subsequent war that ensued have touched everybody in this country in one way or another. This author has lost two elderly relatives, one male and one female who were unable to stand on their feet and escaped the violence in Bor. At this juncture, it is needless to talk about losses of property. Life is more precious than property.
Coup and war aside, President Salva Kiir has been too lenient on his cabinet since 2005. This is called ruling for the elites instead of ruling for the people of South Sudan, the common people. In fact, it is these ministers who have turned against him in the recent coup attempt. They have developed a false sense of entitlement to be in the government for life. Anything short of that induced rebellion, coup and the resultant war in response to their apparent exclusion from national cake and decision making. The issues of the 75 most corrupt senior officials served with letters, the large government with overlapping functions and deteriorating image of South Sudan abroad were the most urgent tasks before the President to fix.
Besides the appeasement of the elites, another worrisome issue was the continuous integration and reintegration of rebel militias mostly from Upper Nile. Many observers, including senior SPLM members knew that this was a simple window dressing exercise bound to fail sooner or later. The December coup and the subsequent war in greater Upper Nile proved them right. The integration of the militias not only caused discontent in the army, but it was a ploy by the political class to employ to take power if political means failed. Furthermore, this was one of the areas where SPLM as liberation has lost its direction. In the original SPLA, it was not only illegal to commission oneself, but was also a capital offense punishable by death by firing squad. Several people have died that way. This has gradually changed over the years because Western liberalism seen in government circles today. The integration of highly ranked militias or those who backstab the government is not only demoralizing the faithful soldiers, but it is also puts them on economic disadvantage. The SPLA pay structure is scaled from private to general that is to say from SSP 600 to SSP 12,000.
No one is sure whether this time is going to be different, but reforms are badly needed. The signing to end hostilities and to cease fire are signs that indicate the end of the war is in sight. The other indicator is the surrender of many rebels in Juba, Bentiu and Malakal. The surrendering rebels realize that this war is a senseless one pitting a tribe against a nation just like the one of 1991. They further realized that life is very difficult in the bush and it takes courage and bravery to endure hardships knowing that there are clear reasons to do so e.g. The SPLA fought for 21 years against slavery, discrimination, Arabisation, and illegal occupation of Southern Sudan by the Arabs. These facts do not exist in the current conflict, only search for political power.
The current crisis cannot be levelled on a single individual. This is because the newest country is overwhelmed by alien modernism rushing to replace the centuries’ old way of life. The terms like democracy, democratic transformation, professionalizing the SPLA, fight against corruption, 25% women representation, taking towns to people, the rule of law, good governance, freedom of expression, constitutional development, state or nation building, amnesty, State of emergency have created more confusion than never before.
This author does not even comprehend some of these jargons despite the fact that he has been in a higher institution of learning. What about the hoi poloi in this country? It is not just the jargon that creates confusion, but how to go about all of this. Take for example the 25% women representation. Is it only in parliament or all government institutions? Who elects the 25% women representation? Are they answerable to women? Some women continue to press the government to implement the allocated percentage according to the law. This shows that the allocated percentage is partially fulfilled.
What about professionalizing the SPLA? Clearly, this has been difficult because of militia integration and corruption endemic in the army circles. The corruption issue in the SPLA was acknowledged by the president and the C-in-C in Bilpham last year in one of military rallies there. On The other hand, militia integration was decried by the Defense Minister as a failure in Malakal while addressing senior officers on 23rd January 2014.
The state failures have just dawned on the country thanks to the disputed coup and the war that ensued. What is important is that South Sudan rulers now publicly admit their past failures. This is something to be applauded. This author, like many other South Sudanese was aware that the open-ended amnesties accorded to the rebels and integration of those who have taken up arms against the state are not the best way of solving problems. This was at best procrastination on the job. National problems are best solved on a case by case basis, even if it means hanging some culprits with capital offense on them.
Some people cry foul against the death penalty, but this can at least calm nerves. What can a young state like South Sudan do when it just emerged from decades of conflict? Even advanced and democratically run nations like USA abolished death sentences only to be revived after trials. It is only NGOs and INGOs which are not for capital punishment. An example of INGO against capital punishment is SHURSHA however; this view is not held by South Sudan Human rights commission. This South Sudan body formed by Act of Parliament accepts that if anyone intentionally kills, then there is no excuse for the murderer not to go the same way. It is now up to the State to match rewards and punishments directly to good deeds and offenses respectively.
Recommendations
1. Implement South Sudan constitution to the letter
2. Implement the SPLA Act in letter and spirit
3. Suspend 25% representation of women and let the competition rule
4. Initiate urgent and badly needed reforms in the army and the civil service
5. Stop integration of rebels enmass, it should be done on individual basis after thorough screening. Leave out the illiterate and over 35 of age.
6. SPLA soldiers should sign a military contract of service; say for five years, renewable for another term if both parties are satisfied.
7. Call for replacement of UNMISS chief
8. Intensify corruption fight by empowering anticorruption to arrest and prosecute anyone involved in corrupt practices
9. Implement capital punishment on capital offenders
10. Eliminate perceived tribalism by offering employment based qualification and integrity basis as parameters for employment only.
11. Implement UN and NGO law so that they do not interfere in the country’s political landscape.
12. Do away with UN, NGO and international community jargon and pressure because these are unimplementable even in the long run. Everybody is aware that the UN is meddling in the country’s affairs too much. You heard that the President has declared a state of emergency in Upper Nile, Jonglei and Western Upper Nile (Unity State) but the UN and NGO are making a mockery of it by entering to assist rebels there. A BBC reporter enters Lankien with MSF hence violating the constitution of South Sudan.
13. Vice President and ministers to sign contracts of service that stipulates that they are not to remain in their post for life. This issue is the one that caused the current conflict.
14. The government to abandon the policy of too much appeasement of individuals because we have seen the consequences of that.
15. The president should reduce rule by decrees. There is no point of using decrees in small matters like the appointment of a press secretary. This can be done through other channels that are less controversial.
16. Freeze rebel assets, including those of Nyandeng and Adwok Nyaba. They may be among the more than 75 officials served with letters by the President last year 2013.
17. Expel rebel members from the SPLM party so that they form their own parties like SPLM in Opposition.
18. Constitute a local court to try human rights violations and refer major violations to the ICC or International Criminal Court. This can deter future violations in the country.
19. Encourage multi-party democracy in the country so that those who are not satisfied in a particular party like Riek Machar and group can form their own parties that are funded by the state. It is no brainer to duplicate names like SPLM, SPLM-DC and SPLM-O. This is a problem when it comes to registration identification of political parties.
20. Implement national truth and reconciliation agenda immediately, while paying attention to groups and individuals who committed rights violations against the state or groups or individuals.
21. Develop an award system for South Sudan so that South Sudanese with outstanding achievements in military, science, agriculture, humanitarian work etc can get the award of the Order of South Sudan.
22. Implement federalism and partition Jonglei state and some other large states to bring services closer to communities. Jonglei state is the largest and therefore, ungovernable with the so called white army, a lawless civil/military organization. This is the demand of Yau Yau rebels and it is the cry of greater Bor Counties of Bor, Twic East and Duk.
23. Try to reach for peace with the rebels, but don’t ignore justice.
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