Two Years of Independence: Is South Sudan on the right path?

On 9th July, the people of the South will celebrate the second anniversary of their independence. It is a moment of reflection of what they have achieved as nation and as citizens who make up this new nation. In my piece about the first anniversary of the independence, I stated that given “our rich cultural values and enormous resources and the inspiring selfless sacrifices of our martyrs, South Sudan has a character with all the ingredients for building a bright and prosperous future and one day becomes the most powerful nation on the continent.”

There is no doubt that the second year of the new nation has been a difficult year by all standards. It is the year that the South relied on other revenue sources other than oil revenue for running the affairs of state. It is even shocking to some international analysts the level of resilience exhibited by the economy of the South. Some international experts even refrained from making any forecast for the economy of the South.

A friend in the leadership of NCP confided to me that they were shocked by the resilience of the economy of the South because they expected it to collapse within six months after the closure of oil production. In fact the South Sudanese pound remains stronger than Sudanese pound and the inflation in the South is far lower than that of Sudan. In terms of food security situation, the forecast of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network suggests improved food security for year 2012/2013 with a near-average harvest was expected and improved access to food in most areas of the South.

This high level of resilience of the economy of the South is attributed to the structure of its economy and the austerity measures adopted by the government. The rural economy of the South is weakly integrated with the urban economy that is more prone to external shocks such as the closure of the oil production. Also the government has adopted serious austerity measures that helped a lot in mitigating the consequences of the shutdown of the oil production. Despite the recent development, Mr. Kosti Manibe, the National Minister of Finance, has performed his duties with distinction amidst austerity measures and the 2012/2013 budget earned him the nickname “Kosterity” budget. I would say that he is one of the best ministers of finance we have since the signing of the CPA in 2005. Kosti is seen by most of the international community as one of the bright spots of the Government of South Sudan.

Other positive development is the concerted measures taken by the Ministry of Petroleum. Being a landlocked country with a bad neighbor such as Bashir’s Sudan; South Sudan needs not only to diversify its economy but also to diversify the outlets for exporting its oil. The Ministry of Petroleum has been successful in contracting some foreign companies to construct refineries. Had it not been the logistical constraint during the rainy season, the South would have celebrated the opening of its first refinery in Unity State on the Independence Day. South Sudan may need to strategically explore this option of refining locally its crude oil with the aim of meeting regional fuel needs particularly Ethiopia, Kenya, Eritrea and even Sudan. Uganda seems to make strategic choice of refining its oil locally rather than exporting it as a crude oil.

One the pipeline, the Ministry of Petroleum might have received now the pipelines feasibility study from the German firm. Although the content of the study is not yet public, the early indications seem to suggest that the pipeline to Djibouti through Ethiopia may be more feasible than that of Lamu in Kenya. The feasibility of Lamu pipeline will depend on the decision of Uganda to export its crude oil and the quantities of new oil discoveries in Block 5 in the South and in Kenya. The real challenge now to the South is to get the funding for this pipeline so that the work to commence immediately. The Government of South Sudan may need to explore a possibility of making use of the SPLA to assist in the construction of this alternative pipeline.

Other positive development during the year is that the South Sudan Audit Chamber under the leadership of Mr Steven Wondu has been able to provide a credible audit reports that will provide a sound basis upon which the South Sudan Anti-Corruption Commission could open specific cases for further investigation. Also the Ministry of Justice has started well by opening cases against the companies that were illegally involved in the sorghum saga. Also some efforts by the Office of the President to administratively investigate the stolen money in the office and the USD 8 million contract are quite encouraging. One would have wished the due process of law could have been followed in these two cases without prejudging the individuals involved.

Diplomatically and despite the financial constraints faced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the South Sudan was elected as Vice President of the UN General Assembly. It was also nominated unanimously and cleared without objection by the region to be elected as a member of the UN Human Rights Council. The press statement made by President Salva on the unilateral decision of Bashir not to allow the oil of the South to be exported through Sudan improved the image of the South within the international community. In particular his statement that “While president al-Bashir has declared jihad (holy war) and is mobilizing for war, I maintain my pledge to you and the world that I will not take the people of South Sudan unnecessarily back to a state of war” was a huge diplomatic score for the South.

Despite these achievements, the South faces enormous challenges in positioning itself within the world arena. South Sudan was ranked number four (4) of the failed states, ranked number 143 in terms of Global Peace Index out of 162 countries, classified as not free country in terms of Freedom in the World Index, ranked number 124 out of 179 countries in terms of Freedom of Press Index, got six (6) scores in terms of Status of Political Rights compared with the least free score of seven (7) and got five (5) scores in terms of status of Civil Liberties compared with the least free score of seven (7). Although these global indices squarely put South Sudan in the group of bad countries, it has performed better than other countries that gained their independence for more than half a century ago such as Sudan.

 As mentioned by Robert Kennedy that “There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?” In fact we have a chance of not only looking at the way the South is now but how we would like to see the South. If we were to dream of the South to be among the best performing countries in the world, we need visionary, coherent and collective leadership. The SPLM as a leading political party has to provide this visionary leadership. Despite its struggle to overcome the “curse” of liberation, the SPLM must put its house in order by creating democratic environment within the party.

The basic documents (manifesto, constitution, rules and regulations and code of conduct) are the democratic pillars upon which the SPLM can create a democratic atmosphere within which each member can contest to any position in the party with clear rules of the game. It seems access to the leadership positions within the SPLM superseded the institutional and organization arrangements of the party. The meeting of the SPLM National Liberation Council and the extraordinary meeting of the Convention need to be convened as urgently as possible to pass these basic documents after-which the National Convention will elect the new leadership of the Party.

There is a compelling need for a peaceful and smooth transition in the leadership of the SPLM. In the history of most liberation movements, there is no shortcut to access leadership and in most cases the incumbent leadership tends to continue for a period of time. Cde Salva Kiir is a consensus leader with whom the unity of the South can be sustained as he remarkably succeeded in uniting the South during critical times towards independence, Cde Riek Machar has proven to be action-oriented leader, accessible and ready to take decisions, Cde James Wani Igga is the reconciliatory heart of the party and people-centered leader, Cde Pagan Amum is visionary and represents the new generation of leadership and Cde Rebecca Nyandeng is the mother of the nation with potential of providing a last resort platform for building consensus within the party.

The synergy and complementarities of these leaders can easily provide visionary, coherent and collective leadership that will put the South on the right path of success.