Haven’t IGAD addressed the root cause of conflict in South Sudan ?
Haven’t IGAD addressed the root cause of conflict in South Sudan?
By David Aoloch Bion
‘’ John Garang de Mabior, whether he likes or not, will accept the position of the Vice President he is refusing all along ‘’ said SPLA Commander late Kon Mawith after he survived an attack from Sudan Army near Gorial town during 21 year civil war
A week ago, Dr Riek Machar, the leader of the rebel SPLM/A in Opposition in South Sudan refused to sign the roadmap proposal drafted by IGAD to end the civil war in the country. Dr Riek refused to put his signature on the document and he describe it as blank check , on conditions that the draft proposal was biased , favouring dictator Salva Kiir, and failed to address the root causes of the conflict .
What puzzled , confused , headached some of us or if not all of us is what Dr Riek and his 3 spokespersons( Lul , Gadet , mabior) mean by’’ the root cause of the conflict ‘’which have not been addressed by regional bloc , the IGAD .
To be honest, the root cause of the conflict was the disagreement in the SPLM party. That Disagreement in the SPLM party gave us December 15 2013 fighting with it subsequent civil war. The December 15 Event gave two theories,
One theory says ‘’ the disagreement made Dr Riek to plot a coup against Salva Kiir to overthrow him or kill him on December 15 ‘’
Another theory says ‘’ the disagreement made Salva Kiir to fabricate the coup to force Riek out of Juba or kill him on December 15 ’’.
To IGAD as mediators, these two theories are just subject matter of debate but not subject matter of the conflict resolution.
Disagreement came about
1. When Dr Riek wanted to contest in the coming 2015 election
2. When the Political Bureau refused to pass into law the basic document of the party before the removal of ‘’ showing of hand method of voting and the 5% of votes to incumbent chairman of the party’’
In summary , the disagreement , tension , violence , bloodbath originate on these two premises ,
1. Dr Riek want to contest in 2015 election
2. SPLM Political Bureau refused to pass the basic document before the removal of two clause of showing of hands and 5% votes to the chairman .
The IGAD proposed that interim Government will be headed by President Kiir and Prime Minister who will come from Dr Riek group, This will be Dr . Riek choice if he want to contest in next election , he will stay way from this interim government and if he does not want to contest he will serve in the interim government that will be there for 30 months then election will be conducted.
For any open minded person, IGAD have addressed the root cause of the conflict, it addressed first premise which is ‘’ Riek want to contest ‘’ IGAD said after 30 months, there will be election therefore Riek will contest. The second premise which is ‘’ basic documents ’’ IGAD said within 30 months, constitution will be written therefore all other legal document will be written too.
Which other ‘’root cause of the conflict’’ which is not yet addressed?.
Dr Riek Machar, his SPLM/A in O and his supporters and their sympathizers should understand in conflict resolution, you do not get all you want unless you win outright. Your demands of
1. President Kiir must step aside
2. Dr, Riek be interim president
3 . Trial for so called Juba Massacre or genocide
4 . federalism etc.
These demands can not and will not be addressed by IGAD. These demand would have addressed themselves if you have militarily defeated Salva Kiir but not in a win- win situation in which the Government and you rebels are in now. they will not be addressed
Early, in the beginning of this article, I quoted one of SPLA Commander late Kon Mawith , Cdr Kon was one of freedom fighters led by Dr John Garang de Mabior in the SPLM/SPLA 21 year civil war . One of Dr John objective was destruction of whole, old Sudan political establishment and replace with the New Sudan political ideology but after Dr. John did not win outright in the battle to establish his utopian society of New Sudan, the mediators mediating the peace talk then in Abuja with Government of Sudan and rebel SPLM/A to find peace in Sudan offered Dr . Garang the position of the vice president, he refused and insisted on his total regime change in Khartoum , replacing it with his utopian New Sudan. So the peace talk broke down
On the frontline, Commander Kon Mawith was attacked in his base near Gorial , Kon escaped after he was almost captured by the enemy, he ran into forest with about 5 of his men, they found a small river and they crossed it when they did not know it because of panic with their clothes, they walked 100 metres, they found a woman who just fetched the water from the same river , they begged the woman to give them water that they were thirsty. The woman first gave them water. They drunk the water. The woman asked
‘’ my son, you have just crossed the river, why didn’t you drink there?
‘’ Where did we cross the river? We have not crossed any river’’ Cdr Kon argued
‘’why are your clothes wet?’’ the woman asked
Surprisingly, Kon found his uniform wet; he left without saying any words. After reaching sitting under the tree in his new base, he said
‘’ if this is how the war will be fought, John Garang de Mabior, whether he likes or not, he will accept the position of the Vice President which he is refusing all along ‘’
Exactly at the end of the war , the words of Kon Mawith came true, John Garang accepted the position of vice president.
This is what Dr. Riek should understand, the position of Prime Minister, he is refusing will not change to anything bigger than it even if he fight for 50 years as one of his family members said ‘’ we shall fight for 50 years if our demands are not met’’
Dr.Riek should understand that every rebel soldier kill in every battle and every Government soldier kill every battle is lost to the nation and to his own family .they should not keep on losing and finishing because you want to be the president you will not be and you want to overthrow kiir you will not overthrow .
Dr Riek should understand that if he has not got what he want in the battlefield for the last 8 months, therefore should forget about that thing and accept win- win situation and accept the Prime Minister post. for sake of peace
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