South Sudan Rebels Likely to Face Sanctions
By Mapuor Malual Manguen
The hostile behavior of Riek Machar rebels known as Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement – In Opposition (SPLM-IO) towards peace is now crystal clear. They intend to continue their violence objective to overthrow government of South Sudan.
This avenue is against cardinal principal of democracy where regime can be changed through ballot box.The world including regional body, the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) or so, is realizing the impossibility of Riek Machar’s dangerous ambitious path to get country’s highest political post.
At its 27th extraordinary summit on August 25, in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, the regional bloc approved the protocol on the agreed principles on transitional arrangements to end the ongoing conflict. President Kiir signed this protocol as a gesture to end the war in the country.
The summit calls on the stakeholders to conclude, within six weeks, negotiation of the details necessary to fully operationalise the agreed principles on the transitional arrangements towards resolution of the crisis in South Sudan.
However, the opposition group, led by former vice-president Riek Machar, said it is committed to the peace process and to reaching a negotiated political solution which should first address the root causes of the conflict.
Despite regional and international pressure, the SPLM-IO so far failed to approve a regional plan prepared by IGAD mediators to end the more than eight-month-long conflict. This is because it prevents its leader, Dr. Riek Machar from running for presidency after elapse of a two-year transitional period should he occupy position of Prime Minister to co-govern the country with President Salva Kiir Mayardit.
His negotiation Team leader to the Addis Ababa peace process, Gen. Taban Deng Gai later on released a statement to media re-affirming their rejection to power sharing protocol and accused IGAD of bias against his movement.
In the same IGAD summit, both President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Dr. Riek Machar signed Matrix for full implementation of Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) agreement where they reaffirmed their commitment to cease violence; allow free movement of humanitarian aids to people affected by war; and to end continuous breach and media propaganda.
But, barely two days after Addis Ababa summit, the rebels based in hotspot Unity State allegedly downed a United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) helicopter, 10km from state capital Bentiu. Evidences largely blame a notorious warlord and rebel commander, Maj.Gen. Peter Gatdate Yak for shooting down UN plane. Three Russian crew members were killed and one survived with injuries in this crash.
The helicopter is owned by Russian company, Utair and hired by UNMISS to transport food for IDPs from Wau in Western Bahr el Ghazal state to Bentiu where thousands of people are camped in UN compound and where roads are impassable due to floods menace.
A few days earlier, the same rebel commander who is under US and European Union’s assets freeze and travel ban, detained six members of CoH’s Monitoring and Verification Team (MVT).
The rebels tortured to death a government representative in the Team before releasing other members who are foreigners from IGAD member countries. The rebels later on accused MVT of spying for Juba.
Moreover, MVT reports indicate that out of recent five violations since their deployment, rebels are responsible for four of these violations. This revelation touched the nerves of some radical members of SPLM-IO who are used to attitude of “bite and cry” if victim reacted.
As rebels appear to be unhappy with outcome of recent summit which largely favors government side, nevertheless, the behavior of SPLM-IO towards peace agreement exposes their underlying character.
This stance is likely to antagonize international community which has been mounting strong pressure to both government and rebel to reach peaceful settlement and end sufferings.
Apparently, if Riek Machar and his group do not check their violent objective to unseat legitimate regime in Juba, they are likely to be slapped with targeted sanctions by IGAD, UN and the West. This would put rebels to further isolations.
But, sanctions may not work in any way in South Sudan whether on rebel, government side or both. Instead, it might pushed the likes of warlords in the name of Peter Gatdate and Gathoth Gatkuoth of Nasir to take the way of fugitive Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) leader, Joseph Kony and his followers who refused to sign peace up to now as a result of ICC arrest warrants against movement’s top leadership for crimes committed in Northern Uganda.
Since International Criminal Court (ICC) does not have police to arrest its suspects, Joseph Kony and his group exported their ruthless killings, looting and rape to South Sudan, DRC and Central Africa Republic.
Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO will not be cowed by sanctions as long as they continue to acquire arms and diplomatic support from some IGAD member states and their sponsors elsewhere.
The author is journalist, blogger, social and political commentator based in Juba. He can be reached at mapuormalual@yahoo.com.
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