The political calculation of Election 2015: Who will win it, Riek or Kiir?
By Manyang Duany Jok, Bor, South Sudan
As matter of fact, the author want to analyze the possible result of 2015 election by examining candidates’ region and his popularity in the three regions of Upper Nile, Equatoria & Bar el gazel, which make up Republic of South Sudan to win an upcoming election, that is partially confirmed to be taking place in year 2015, unless in condition of unexpected future circumstances.
Although there might be other interested candidates such as Lam Akol of SPLM- DC, apart from aforementioned two individuals, the author considers two for candidacy for their greater rivalry that led their political position to cost thousands of lives. Therefore, the analysis is based on the two regardless of more other politicians of who is right or wrong.
For campaigning for political position is not an intimidation, ones is required to set up exploratory committee, present his resume/curriculum virtue (CV) to his committee, disclosing his/her available financial status and then to test a political water in most congested areas particularly in areas like Juba to determine whether he/she could win the election and then later to his/her home town.
This is one of the necessary steps taken for a possible candidacy for public office but not to resort to shedding of blood for a leadership position. Here, the author will use none scientific mathematical formulas to examine who will win between the two candidates.
- E. President Kiir
To begin with, President Kiir known ignorance not to do the best interest of public by failing to construct the road that can link states; to raise wages for teachers and health workers to deliver quality services to people, to initiate the agricultural industry for self reliant; to release the names of those who stole seventy five million dollars from the Republic by not holding them accountable in the court of law; to catch those who were involved in Dura Saga; to jail any single corrupted politicians responsible for mismanagement of public resources; to allocate much of the resources in the rural area then the loyal individual using it for personal satisfaction; to protect journalists from brutal security personnel in Capital Juba; the public and business community opinion was lower over his next term of presidency; and this could have cost him election to if Riek Machar was not impatient enough.
Nevertheless President Kiir repetitious amnesty to pardon criminals and to integrate them into army as an accommodation including bypassing the real heroes/heroines of liberation struggle in rank, who brought South Sudanese to independent which is enjoyed today; although this political entertainment to bandits or looters saved him referendum which led to the sovereign State of South Sudan, this could have also contributed to his loss of election because most people are not very appreciative about it.
Moreover, even though Machar’s rebellion put him under critical pressure to speeding up the reform of the military and organized forces by raising salaries and keep providing forces security and food supplies, a delay of salaries in the nation to organized forces, national army and civil servants could remain as another obstacle for him to lose upcoming election. But because of Dr. Riek Machar’s rebellion, President Kiir is redeemed from his bad deed including lack of visionary supervision over wrong elements pulling the nation astray from developments, but self enrichment.
Furthermore, President’s signing of UNMISS mandate to operate everywhere in the state as it could; this gives UNMISS a chance to support every opposition against government by serving as a spy, food donor, and weapons supplier for the opponent through whatever means and to disclose other classified government weakness to the rebels as the way to keep government in trouble.
Since UNMISS invests in insecurity to receive fund and monetary material goods from donors of nation that love chronic violence to exist in a country such as South Sudan as the economic competition concern. UNMISS intentionally does this to cease South Sudan from approaching the developing countries and not to be economically independent and to depend on them for security, which part of fulfillment of their mandates.
This to the view of the few is counted on President Kiir for signing the mandate which he didn’t do his homework so well but not helpful enough for the welfare of the State; however, this could also cost him position in upcoming election for UNMISS is doing much unfavorable to a government including fueling of more rebellion in the country.
Dr. Riek Machar Teny
Based on hypothetically perspective point of view, if Riek Machar had not painted himself with second times rebellion, he could have been more likely to win the election against the current President, Salva Kiir of Republic of South Sudan because most people in this nation had not witnessed the scale of damage his political agenda of 1990s had cost, but only those who experienced it in first hand. Yet majority had almost forgotten it all.
If he was to be President and to win over Kiir Mayardit, he could first of all unite Greater Upper Nile region which is composed of Jonglei State, Unity and Upper Nile under his umbrella; make them insecurity free and to secure their relationship like President Kiir did as an icon to Greater Bara gazel through Union of the regions, where four state governors in the region could meet and share the common interest regarding the area.
Furthermore, similarly to Greater Equatoria in respect to Vice President, James Wani Igga, where three state governors meet together to discuss regional issues and to present their communiqué to the national government. This strategy could have done him good by automatically winning over Greater upper Nile and then to fight over three States of Equatoria with Mr. Kiir the president of South Sudan.
But because Mr. Riek Machar has taken a forceful mean to achieve his political objective contrarily to democratic will, he spoiled his own regions of Upper Nile: Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile State in which Thousands lost lives, Hundreds of Thousands displaced to neighboring countries and some in UNMISS protection camps within the country while others stranded in wilderness suffering in the course of his rebellion.
For the same matter, counties in this region are now divided deeply over tribal identity; however, his fame and popularity for good, instead, turned out to be popularity for bad, which has been negatively reinforced by historical records; hardly to be hidden from mourners of both events (November 15th, 1991; December 15th, 2013) he triggered.
Although Riek had a great supporters: intellectuals, business group, and students compared to President Kiir, his second rebellion reminded wealth driven, dying heart supporters in Juba from different regions of South Sudan; those who he used to assist with material goods through help of his former position of Vice President. Thus, these groups had almost forgotten the devastated event triggered by him (Riek) including historical impact of 1990s throughout the liberation struggle of the SPLA/M to CPA.
However, the recent massive blood poured down due to his (December 15th, 2013-2015) political upheaval in the country refreshed the recollection of dual atrocious act. Consequently those people who would want to support Riek Machar now have disassociated themselves from him including eleven detainees (G11) and those people will vote for President Kiir in the year to come.
In this regard, President Salva Kiir will be winner over Riek Machar, because 80% of whatever documented figure of Bar El gazelle citizens/residents will support Kiir’s leadership for he comes from there, while 20% will go for Dr. Riek or share it with other parties; 60% of Equatoria in favor of Wani Igga, the Vice President will also benefit President Kiir for Wani will be his running mate in the year 2015.
Regardless of Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei of being home States of Riek Machar by region, still 50% of whatever population in this greater upper Nile will vote in favor of President Kiir leaving Riek other half of 50%.
President Kiir numbers will be backed up to sour due to massive number of people from the most victimized counties of Greater Upper Nile whose Riek’s power struggle rebellion had badly affected.
With simple illustration: Adding President Kiir numbers versus Riek Machar will determine the result of upcoming 2015 election of who will win the upcoming election.
- Kiir (B) 80+ (E) 60+ (U) 40 =180
- Riek (B) 20+ (E) 40+ (U) 50) =110
- Kiir-Riek = K180-110R = Kiir=80
By Playing with figures and none scientific mathematical formulas plus comparison of the issues South Sudan is currently facing, President Kiir will win 2015 election by 80% of the vote while Mr. Riek Machar will lose with 20% of the votes; thus President is the winner of upcoming election above Riek by 60% of the votes.
The author is the resident of Mareng Boma, Bor County, Jonglei State, If you any question, you can reach me by: jokmanyang@hotmail.com
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