SPLM/A IO capture of Malakal is their last kick of the dying horse
By David Aoloch Bion
(May 20, 2015 SBB )The rebels captured of Malakal town is their last kick of the dying horse. Why? Because If rebels were strong enough, they would have not left Nasir near behind them, leave Ulang after Nasir and come and captured Malakal in centre before clearing the out posts of Malakal .
If the rebels knew they have strength , they would have captured Nasir and Ulang first . Now, The rebels are in Malakal and they are besieged by the Government soldiers. Where is their line of supply? Where will they get food? Where will they get bullets?. May be manna will fall from heaven on them like Israelites in the desert but God will not do that , you remember what they did to women in church the other day . .
Therefore , there is no where they will get food and bullets and Mighty SPLA will keep pressure on them. If they are defeated in Malakal in next three days or one week , where will they go? . They will disintegrate in civil population and the war end there .
From that point , the Mighty SPLA in Nasir will just capture Maiwut and move to Pagak on the following day . it is their last kick of the dying horse , the victory in Malakal is short lived victory .
There are two scenarios now, after the rebels will be defeated in Malakal and Pagak , they will either sign peace or will resort to Joseph Kony tactic of hit and run .
Joseph Kony started like this in 1987 , he left his base near Gulu in Northern Uganda like Riek left his base near Nasir and he went and captured Jinja in central Uganda , when he was defeated in Jinja , he resort to terrorism cutting ears , arms and mouths of civilians .
it is just a matter of time for Riek Machar to choose between being on the run like Joseph Kony or accept Vice President without conditions. His rebels integrate into SPLA mother. Or will be village thieves. No two armies’. period.
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