Is the SPLM-IO a Negative Force?
8 min readBy David Mayen Ayarbior, Juba, South Sudan
July 11, 2015 (SSB) —- During the official celebrations on July 9, 2015 of South Sudan’s Independence Day Anniversary at John Garang’s mausoleum, the country’s Vice President James Wani Igga called for the region and the world to designate the SPLM-IO as a negative force. His call might have gone unnoticed or was not given the weight, meaning, and implications those two words hold. This article intends to briefly shed light on those two words in the VP’s speech: Negative Force.
What qualifies a military force to be a “Negative Force?” What precedents or examples of such designation/labelling were there in Africa? What are the implications of being labeled a Negative Force on both the force itself and for the region where it operates?
The designation of Negative Force applies to rebel groups whose aims are equivocal, disingenuous, irrational, and unattainable. Such groups have always been habitual mutineers and resistant to reasoning. Their leaders have purported to be the only saviors of their countries against the evils of central governments. They hold their countries hostage to an ultimatum of either their reform proposals are accepted with them being at the helm, or to hell with peace in their countries. Their military constituencies consisted of innocent young men who underwent high levels of indoctrination and incitement by their cult-like leaders who use ethnicity as a basis of political rhetoric.
Examples of negative forces could be traced back in history. Evil cult-like leaders such as Hitler and Mussolini were labelled negative forces before the Allied forces brought them down to their knees. In Africa, Jonas Savimbi the leader of UNITA (Angola) was once a darling of the western world during the cold war and the only rebel army in Africa to ever fly Mig fighter jets. However, after signing a peace agreement consequent to which he stood and lost elections, Savimbi once again decided to rebel. That second rebellion made his rebel army a Negative Force and as a result prompted the entire region, including his former supporters, to ‘gang up’ against him. He was consequently killed in 2002 by government troops, before Angola started its impressive path towards economic growth.
Joseph Kony’s LRA is another Negative Force in the region. The level of evil the LRA unleashed against the people of Northern Uganda is simply unimaginable. His disingenuous demand for democracy in Uganda and connection to the Ten Commandments of the Old Testament has been the complete opposite of the heinous atrocities he committed in Northern Uganda against his own Acholi people.
Having refused an olive branch from the Ugandan government, he left the region with no option but to ‘gang up’ against his forces (LRA) that are now on the run across borders up to Central African Republic. Kony’s LRA forces are currently neutralized and there is a regional consensus that it’s just a matter of time for him to get the fate of Savimbi.
The most recent example of designation of Negative Force was received by the M23 Movement in Congo DRC. Compared to Riek’s forces which are made up almost entirely of the same foot soldiers who once split under the name SSIM/A from the SPLM/A and received training and equipment from Khartoum, the March 23 Movement of Bosco Ntagenda and Sultani Makenga was entirely made up of seasoned Tutsi rebels from former CNDP (National Congress for the Defense of the People) which was supported by Rwanda and Uganda.
Like SPLM-IO which had managed during the initial chaos following their December 2013 mutiny to storm into big towns like Bentiu, Malakal, and Bor; the M23 had grown in force to the extent that they were able to overwhelm a combined strength of DRC and UN (MONUSCO) blue helmet forces. They did so on their late 2013 famous march from one town to another toward Goma, the densely populated and highly strategic capital of North Kivu Province which they eventually controlled. After Goma, the M23 braggingly spoke of Kinshasa, which they said ‘was not very far’.
The M23 was only defeated after all countries in the great lakes region perceived the prospects of the entire region getting engulfed by senseless protracted conflict. It was labelled a negative force by all member states of the Great Lakes region, including its former supporters Rwanda and Uganda which were convinced about the fact that the only loser will not be DRC or Joseph Kabila, but the entire region including their countries.
The rational for labelling the M23 Movement a Negative Force was that whatever outcome from its rebellion would be negative for the region. Like Riek’s pathway to the abyss which he had ominously threatened, the dangerous pathway on which the M23 was taking the entire Great Lakes region was illuminated by the superior reasoning of the relatively young but impressively prudent President of DRC, Joseph Kabila with the support of Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Angola.
Whether it related its rebellion to the Rwandan Genocide 1994, which was a showcase of pure human evil, or to other lofty political ideals like democracy and restructuring of the state, the end result of the M23 rebellion was negative. Hence, after coolheaded and unemotional (Rwanda Genocide connected) analysis by regional heads of state, the only ultimatum M23 received was either to disband and undergo a good faith UN supported DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Integration) process, or face the wrath of the entire region. Sultani Makenga prudently chose the former option since he could not fight the whole region and was consequently disarmed by his former supporter, the great Pan-African President of Uganda, Yuweri Museveni.
Considering Riek’s background and current unreasonable demands, he stands the risk of being labeled a Negative Force if he continues to put unattainable goals at the negotiating table in Ethiopia. His misperception of the receptions he has been getting from Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Africa might backfire if he continues to drive South Sudan and the region into his well dug Abyss. The end result of his rebellion is chaos, the return of his friend Josph Kony, and proliferation of small arms which would facilitate the creation of multiple senseless rebellions in the entire region.
Assuming that his SPLM-IO captures Juba (which is a wild assumption of dreamers), does Riek think that it would be the end of the war as the generals and current forces of SPLA would be annihilated? Does he think that he has the capacity to hold Juba for one day, let alone constitute his government? Does he think that his embarrassingly incompetent assigned governors will be dispatched to his twenty plus states as heroes? As a dreamer, Dr. Riek might with a broad smile nod in the affirmative. But we hope that he wakes up soon to the reality around him and the state of nightmare into which he has subjected hundreds of thousands of innocent women and children from the great Nuer tribe.
Note that the designation of the SPLM-IO as a negative force might not even be a good thing in the short run for South Sudan which will be a battle field for the final campaign against his force. However, his intransigence might leave the region with no option but to label his forces as such. He is asking for unreasonable parliamentary and executive percentages at the time when he is neither a political party that could win those percentages in any election nor a movement in possession of an intellectual cohorts of politicians to fill those posts.
Once the world and region get the right picture that Riek wants to transform South Sudan into a battlefield for proxy and protracted warfare whose reverberations would be felt way beyond South Sudan’s borders, there will be no other option but to label the SPLM-IO a Negative Force. Riek’s politics of force and threat of force for keeping political positions has been the hallmark of his political carrier since he was introduced onto the political stage by John Garang in the mid-80s. And when he goes astray, many women and children are raped and killed and huge populations displaced. That is often followed by an apology such as what he gave Aljazera English TV when questioned about his personal responsibility for the heinous atrocities his forces committed against innocent civilians in Bor. “Things went out of hand,” was his lame excuse.
For the sake of the dreams of South Sudan and its long suffering people; for the sake of Greater Upper Nile’s innocent populations that are now held hostage pending the realization of a one man’s wild dreams of greatness; for the sake of regional peace and stability; for God’s sake: let Dr. Riek come home in good faith and join the wagon of peace on which many patriotic faces could now be seen. He has some personal attributes of a person who could be a positive force for change in South Sudan, but his blind ambition has always led him astray, leading to enormous suffering of innocent South Sudanese.
The question now for the region and South Sudanese is: does the SPLM-IO possess the characteristics of a Negative Force? If yes, which is presumably the case, is it time to rally behind labelling the SPLM-IO as a Negative Force?
David Mayen Ayarbior is the Press Secretary in the Office of H.E. James Wani Igga, Vice President of South Sudan. He could be reached at dmayen@yahoo.com
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