Dr. Riek Machar is to G10 as Gen Peter Gatdet Yak is to Chairman of SPLA/M-IO
By Deng Lueth Yuang, Canada
July 22, 2015 (SSB) —- Generals Peter Gatdet Yak, Gathoth Gatkuoth and Gatwech Dual are the real representatives of Nuers grievances and aspirations. Dr. Machar is an opportunist exploiting Nuer tribal sentiments against the regime in Juba which happens to be majorly Dinka.
Having said this, allow me to hypothesize on two or three scenarios happening now in the SPLA/M-IO headquarters in Pagak, South Sudan and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The three generals mentioned above are most powerful to the average grassroots Nuers than Riek’s international reputation amidst his penchants for Whites’ world. Riek is just a political figurehead representing no one but his aspirations – to become a president one day in South Sudan.
One, the spontaneous or planned coup, genocide or rebellion happened as a culmination of deep seated mistrusts in the ruling SPLM political machine, then it evolved into hatred between Jieng and Nuers.
The G10 Affair
So, the real truth is Riek belongs to Pagan’s group, the G10. He didn’t want to fight a rebellion against his southerners as this would spoil his presidential ambitions among the Bor Dinka and wider Jieng. But because circumstances of having nowhere to run to and hide became obvious, he took political leadership of the Nuer rebels, not because the three general above knows him as an astute leader, but just because of his international recognition as a learned person and former VP of the nation.
These days, however, notorious leaders connect well with everyone making them renowned globally e.g. the case of Joseph Konyi, Sadam Hussein, Muamar Gadafi etc. In all these, the military and civilian leadership remained with Gatdet, Gatkuoth and Gatwech Dual.
Riek is not fighting for mass killings of Nuers in Juba, but his own seat. Having seen that Pres Kiir has amnestied the former detainees in which he was a part member though never been jailed (escaped), his calculations now look nearer to acquire presidency in 5-10 years if Kiir calls it quit. He will be the second high ranking member in the party to steer it forward and ascend to its presidency.
His wish has been that he gets his position back (2nd in command; first VP, second chairman, etc). On the ground among the Nuers, they were not fighting because Riek was relieved of his VP post or hunted down in Juba, it was because of that disingenuous report that Nuers were killed in their thousands in Juba because of the alleged coup led by Riek Machar.
I.C.C – crimes against humanity
Peter Gatdet is a sanctioned animal. His accounts, if any, are frozen. He can’t travel overseas especially the Western countries. Gatkuoth and Gatwech Dual are also sanctioned. These are next war crimes criminals whose names will shortly appear, if UN and Troika are serious about holding those perpetrators accountable for their participation in killing civilians.
On the Juba side, four to five generals and politicians will be hauled before the courts in Hague. Kiir and Riek are not going. Learn from Kenya’s ICC indictments. So here, the small fish will suffer. In this, Riek is weeding out would-be criminals to show to the world that he is not part of them. He is for peace. And if there is anything to bring such peace back, he is ready to sacrifice for it.
Political competitors and EP, the Enemies of Peace
Riek’s number 1 agenda is to either become a president or second in command to Kiir or anyone who takes up presidency seat. The former is hard to achieve especially if this war has tribal undertones – Dinka vs Nuer. So the latter is feasible for now. If he gets his position back, like what is being offered to him by both Pres Kiir and IGAD mediators, why else and what for will he reneges signing the peace in August?
Hence, his biggest fear, threat and what will lead him to oblivion soon are the Nuers’ generals fighting the government. These guys are powerful entities in their own rights. More powerful than Riek, himself, thinks. They are the ones bearing the brunt of this war. Their kids have died. Their men are gone. They are the ones who plan war, loose it and win it in the fields. Can Riek claim all these while enjoying his whisky, Wi-Fi and hordes of Kawajat ladies in Addis and Nairobi hotels? Nay.
The generals are bitter about peace being negotiated at their absence. One time, I commented that Uhuru Kenyatta’s peace at statehouse and hotels would bear no fruits soon. He must include the warlords. Promise something, and mandate them to go back to Nuerland to appease their peoples that their grievances have been answered, and this is what they will do on their behalf.
US/IGAD imposed peace
Finally, international community especially the IGAD, Troika with US topping them have had more than enough to mediate, dialogue or cozy with the antagonists. Most of us who follow South Sudanese news can vividly attest that IGAD has been setting the agenda for the warring parties, not themselves arbitrating on their own issues. This has raised so many questions from us if indeed IGAD is resolving conflict, fueling it or showing ineptitude through imposed peace modalities.
Well, you will understand very well that the IGAD and Troika were brainstorming, assessing the enemies’ willingness to peace or simply put, doing case management studies to learn about them. Hence, researching on the parties. Now they have learned more than they require, and they are coming back with those proposals debates or discussions to force peace against them and the peoples of South Sudan.
Having learned this, the forced peace will have lots of misgivings, but above all acceptable to Junubin who only needs harmony and tranquillity among themselves.
Obama visiting Kenya, South Sudan’s erstwhile neighbour
Pres Obama, a Kenyan son but an American by birth is coming to his father’s homeland, Kenya to attend Global Entrepreneurship Summit. But amidst all this, there is something he is not shied away to venture into, and exert his influence as an Africa, a Luo, a Nilote, and a South Sudanese who roots are primarily based in Bhar el Ghazal region. This is to say, Obama presence in Kenya next door will put an impetus into IGAD mediations, and Uhuru’s peace plans.
Peace is finally coming to South Sudan. It is not an amicable peace, but a forced one. Kenya says, it is a government of ‘Nusu mkate’ or Half a Bread government. That is what happened to Hon. Raila Odinga and Pres Mwai Kibaki when the 2007/8 elections were disputed.So take that to your medulla oblongata, and think about it
Facebook _ @Deng Lueth Yuang
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