August 17th Deadline: A day of great dramas, A day of great uncertainties
August 17, 2015 (SSB) — There is great uncertainty concerning the South Sudanese peace negotiations in the Ethiopian capital city of Addis Ababa. August 17th was supposed to be the deadline to sign the final peace agreement between the warring parties of South Sudanese conflict.
By the end of today, around 6pm East Africa time, only the rebel leader, Riek Machar, and the leader of G-10, Pagan Amum, have signed the IGAD “compromised” peace agreement. President Kiir has refused to sign, but has instead requested for 15 more days for further consultation with his constituencies back in Juba, South Sudan.
The day was full of drama, starting from yesterday. A day before yesterday, it was reported that Juba has pulled out of the peace talks in Addis Ababa, only later for Michael Makwei Lueth, government spokesperson to the peace talks, to refute the claim which was publicly announced by Ateny Wek, President Kiir’s spokesperson, and by Martin Lomuro, minister for cabinet affairs in Juba.
As if that was not enough, it was also reported that President Kiir would not be going to Addis Ababa for the August 17th deadline, allegedly because, given the split within the rebel movement, Kiir has no one to negotiate with. Alternatively, government chief mediator, Nhial Deng, had told the media that the president was not attending the final leg of the Addis talks because he was informed late.
As of yesterday morning, President Kiir was still in Juba, and VP James Wani was preparing to go to Addis to represent the government in the peace talks. Then in midday, the president, under intense pressure from leaders of the IGAD who had all gathered in Addis, decided to board the plane and showed up in Addis in the afternoon, much to the surprise of all concerned.
Then today, the final day for signing the peace talks, more dramas ensued. President Museveni of Uganda, an ally of the government of South Sudan, and President Bashir of the Sudan, a supporter of the rebels, quarreled and separately stormed out of the IGAD meeting. Museveni left for Uganda while Bashir left for Khartoum.
It is understood that the cause of the disagreement was whether IGAD should use the IGAD-Plus document or the recently produced “Kampala peace proposal” as the basis of the final peace agreement. IGAD-plus document is seen to be favoring the rebels while the Kampala proposal appears to be favoring the government, according to South Sudanese observers.
There was an ambiguity in the afternoon after Museveni and Bashir stormed out of the IGAD final peace talks. Local media was speculating that the peace talks have finally collapsed.
However, it later transpired that the remaining IGAD leaders were able to persuade Riek Machar and Pagan Amum to sign the IGAD-Plus document. President Kiir, however, was not convinced and declined to sign the document. Reportedly, he only initialed it, pending 15 more days of consultation with his supporters back in South Sudan.
However, to core supporters of the government, the president was never going to sign the IGAD-Plus document, especially after Museveni walked out of the peace talks. Reportedly, the president only went to Addis Ababa because Museveni had assured him that the final peace agreement would be based on the Kampala proposal, not the IGAD-plus document.
The 15 days consultation requested by the government is, it is claimed, President Kiir’s tactical withdrawal from Addis Ababa, never to return unless, or until, IGAD body presents a different peace proposal, preferably something similar, or closer, to the Kampala document.
This view is given further credence by the fact that President Kiir will never sign any document that is being opposed by President Museveni, not because he is a slave to Museveni but because Museveni’s support is assured to President Kiir in case sanctions are levied against the government of South Sudan.
Any sanction regime not supported by Uganda is dead in the water. Sanctions supported by Kenya, Ethiopia and Sudan and opposed by Museveni would herald a major security dilemma in the East and Horn of Africa region, and could lead to the break up of both IGAD and EAC.
Given the mood in Juba, the national assemble will swiftly convene and totally reject the final peace accord based on IGAD-Plus, enabling Kiir to come back with a “NO” to the IGAD leaders.
After all, there is a feeling in Juba that the rebels are sharply divided and Riek Machar is weakened—he does not deserve the powers and privileges confers upon him and his camp by the IGAD-plus document.
The government is also reportedly on the march to take more rebels areas in southern Unity State.
Ultimately, there is the question of Peter Gatdet’s group that has allegedly formed their own delegation to represent them in Addis Ababa, headed by Changson (who was dismissed last week by Riek Machar from the SPLM-IO).
There is also uneasy as to what might befall G-10, especially Pagan Amum, after they decided to sign the peace agreement together with the rebels of Riek Machar. Will the government dismissed Pagan from his reinstated position, accusing him of betrayal? Will the Arusha Accord collapsed? No one is sure.
All these ambiguities are further aggravated by the dismissal of four state governors yesterday evening by President Kiir. Among those dismissed are the governors of Central and Western Equatoria states, the governor of Warrap and Upper Nile states. More troubling of these are the dismissal of the two governors of Equatoria region given the recent clashes in Mundri and Yambio (one of the reasons why Governor Bakasoro might have been removed).
Then there is the removal of Simon Kun Puoch of Upper Nile state, a Nuer from Nasir who has been a staunch supporter of the government, going to the extent of publicly claiming that no Nuer people were killed in Juba (and that Riek Machar fabricated the story for political reason) in the aftermath of December 15th crisis. It remains to be seen if the Nuer who have been supporting the government in Upper Nile would shift their allegiance to the rebels in the absence of Governor of Kun Puoch.
Moreover, Clement Wani Kong’a, whose son is with Riek Machar, was a former Khartoum-allied Mundari militia leader. With his removal, chances are that he might defect again and wage war on Juba. He still retains a sizeable militia army from his Mundari tribe.
Today, to most South Sudanese, is a day when peace was almost achieved and war ended. However, it has been a day of great dramas, including the open wailing of Madam Nyandeng Garang, after President Kiir failed to sign the final peace accord with Riek Machar.
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