The UN, Troika and EU Risk Becoming Part and Parcel of the South Sudanese Conflict
The UN, Troika and EU Find Themselves in an Unviable Position on the South Sudan Conflict
By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan
October 7, 2015 (SSB) — The reactions from the UN, Troika, and EU is out. Predictably, as often been the case, it perfectly mirrors the position taken by the rebels of Dr. Riek Machar.
The rebels denounced the presidential decree that established 28 new states in South Sudan as a direct violation of the recently signed IGAD-sponsored peace accord. The UN, Troika and EU released their press statements condemning the establishment of the 28 new states as a flagrant breach of the signed peace agreement.
And again, though this was largely expected, supporters of the government are incensed.
“I don’t know but I think that some parasites need to be told that South Sudan isn’t a breeding ground for all kinds of worms. Some foreigners should learn to F-off from South Sudan affairs #pissed,” writes Mading Ngor, a journalist, on his Facebook page, few hours after Troika and EU issued their press releases.
Government officials in Juba bitterly complain that rarely ever have the rebels and the West find themselves on opposite sides. “They always mimic one another,” said one official. “Do you seriously think that this is a sheer coincidence?”
And this oddity, more than anything else, is feeding the anti-Westerners—UN, Troika and EU—sentiment in government controlled areas, and mainly among the Dinka community that makes up about 40% of South Sudan’s population.
This anti-Westerners sentiment is bourgeoning into two competing conspiracy theories among government supporters. The first is that the UN, Troika and EU are plotting against the sovereignty of the Republic of South Sudan. By tacitly backing the rebellion of Dr. Riek Machar, the West is striving to weaken South Sudan to the point of a failed statehood. A failed state status would then be used to justify the campaign of UN trusteeship.
Among the government circles, the chief proponent of this conspiracy against the sovereignty of South Sudan are the blue-eyed boys of the G-10 who are said to be the main beneficiaries of the UN trusteeship. The fact that Pagan Amum once publicly called for the takeover of South Sudan by the UN goes further to reaffirm the conspiracy among the government supporters.
The second conspiracy theory centers on the fate of Laurent Gbagbo of Ivory Coast. According to the government, the IGAD-plus peace proposal is designed to disarm the president of his executive powers and to place oilfields within those states allocated to the rebels. Government supporters fret that the goal here is twofold: render the president impotent politically and economically.
The fact that peace proposal (it is still called “a proposal” among government circles, mark you) allow a grace period in which there would be two separate armies is taken to mean that the West is trying to execute in South Sudan what they did in Ivory Coast when they left two warring armies intact, separately.
With President Kiir left with no executive powers to exercise, no oil money to pay his cronyists, and a fully armed and well-funded rebel army to contend with, the next stage of the plot would be easily executed. Elections, under international supervisory body, would be called and Riek Machar declared the outright winner. For President Kiir, to acquiesce would be to face the Un-backed hybrid court for the alleged Juba massacre, and to resist would be for him to meet the same fate that befell Laurent Gbagbo.
For signals, government supporters point to the unusually high number of UNMISS troops, armed with tanks, heavy war equipment, planes and some claim, drones. The recent incident in Mombasa in which a suspicious UN shipped was detained by Kenyan police does nothing to reassure the jilted supporters of President Kiir. It only confirm their fears that the West is conspiring to weaken South Sudan, detain President Kiir and take over the country through UN trusteeship.
Yet, for the UN, Troika and EU, their positions is perhaps guided by the interests of the country, particularly the fate of the innocent civilians caught up in the fight between the government of President Kiir and the rebels of Dr. Riek Machar. The fact that South Sudan could be a highly polarized country with hardly any angels among the demons does not register in the mind of the West. The Messiah must have innocent souls to be redeemed from the devil.
If indeed South Sudan is too polarized, then any press statement emanating from the UN, Troika and EU that always parrot the position of the rebels is definitely eroding their standing as impartial arbiters of the South Sudanese conflict. More or less, just like Uganda and Khartoum, the UN, Troika and EU risk being part and parcel of the civil war rather than unbiased peace mediators they are supposed to be.
Because statements issued and positions taken in a politically, militarily and ethnically polarized country like South Sudan could be extra ammunition to the rebels’ side, the UN, Troika and EU risk becoming one more brigades of Riek Machar’s rebellion in its campaign to unseat the government of South Sudan. This will have dire consequences not just on the current implementation of the peace deal but also in any future general elections in which these same tainted entities are involved as “neutral” supervisory bodies.
If the nation of South Sudan will not find impartial election observers in the persons of the UN, Troika and EU, then chances of South Sudan transitioning peacefully from the present partisan carnage into a new political dispensation by means of a free and fair, democratic election is, sadly, doomed.
Given the current emotion against the UN, Troika and EU within government areas, any UN/Troika/EU supervised election in which Dr. Riek Machar is declared a winner will be disputed by the government as rigged—an implementation of UN, Troika and EU hidden agenda against the government of South Sudan. Whether or not these international bodies have any hidden agenda against President Kiir is beside the point: what matter is the sentiment provoked by their behaviors which, in the eyes of the government supporters, have a lot to be desired.
The UN, Troika and EU must therefore care more about their status as neutral bodies serving all parties to the current conflict, and who can always be relied upon as impartial arbiters by all parties. The more their statements and positions only mirror the rebels’ position, the more irrelevant and partisan they become in the eyes of those who support the government. And since you need the government to solve the present quagmire in the country, it matters that their views and opinion be put into consideration.
To dismiss any party to the current conflict as a bunch of political and military lunatic is a dangerous naivety and an impediment to long term resolution of the fragmentary South Sudanese conflict.
More importantly, the UN, Troika and EU must do everything possible within their powers to contain the emerging narrative that the Nuer have the support of the West (UN, Troika and EU) and Khartoum, while the Dinka have the support of the Ugandan government. The West can’t afford to be one more recipe for further ethnic divide between the Nuer and the Dinka communities upon whom peace and stability of the country depend.
However, because the UN, Troika and EU must take positons on all the major controversies in the South Sudanese conflict, it places them in an unviable position. To keep quiet would be to encourage impunity. Yet, to speak up in a polarized situation tantamount to taking side, which in this case, as the government is too happy to point out, is always on the side of the rebels.
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PaanLuel Wël, the managing editor of PaanLuel Wel: South Sudanese Bloggers (SSB), graduated with a double major in Economics and Philosophy from The George Washington University, Washington D.C, USA. He is the author of Return in Peace (R.I.P) Dr. John Garang and Who Killed Dr. John Garang and also the Editor of the essential speeches and writings of the late SPLM/A leader, Dr. John Garang, published as The Genius of Dr. John Garang, vol. 1-3. You can reach him through his email: paanluel2011@gmail.com or Facebook page
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