Riek Machar Plus G-10 Honeymoon with the White House Is Over
Analysis: South Sudanese Rebel Leader Blasts the U.S. After Cold Shoulder from the White House; Foreign Policy
By Manon Jok Aleu, New York, USA
October 12, 2015 (SSB) — The recent visit of rebel leader Machar has emboldened the rebel’s supporters in the US beginning from a massive reception at the JKF International Airport in New York, and followed by another huge reception by his supporters for the two rallies in Omaha, Nebraska and Kansas City, Kansas. Unfortunately for rebel leader, his reception from his delegations in the U.S has ended up in frustration and disappointment as a result of White House behavior toward him at the moment. The Obama administration blamed the rebel leader for his reluctance to take positive actions in the implementation of the Addis Ababa peace agreement signed on August 17, 2015 by Machar himself Plus the G10.
The International community and the White House should recognize that the Machar camp plus G10 are playing games. While they have signed peace agreement on Aguest17, 2015, they are not interested seriously about peace, but rather are hoping for sanctions that could weaken and threaten the South Sudan government. While they have refused to engage the South Sudan government to implement the peace agreement.
The genuine threats of sanctions directed at the Juba government by the Intentional Community is meant to encourage both sides – the South Sudan government and rebels – not to place obstacles to implement peace agreement. All signatures of the parties to the peace agreement should be subject to the sanctions if any party fails in its implementation. For many reasons, the rebel folks Plus G10 have not respected the ceasefires, continue to violate them, and refuse to sign security arrangements that could have paved the way for a permanent ceasefire agreement signed in Addis Ababa in the month of September, 2015.
The Obama administration has grown frustrated by both sides – the government and the rebels Plus G10. On the government side, there is nothing new from the White House that proposed sanctions against individual authorities within the government in the UN Security Council last month. Thank Russia and other countries who requested the UN Security Council to postpone proposed American sanctions and to give more time for warring parties to show positive action and commitment in the implementation of the peace process.
The new development that could force Machar to act positively in the implementation of peace arises from the recent Obama administration move, an administration that has grown so frustrated with the rebel leader for his failure to follow through on the implementation of the peace accord. The White House has finally begun to show its frustration with the rebel leaders Plus G10 and this frustration could help in the implementation of peace. In fact, National Security Advisor Susan Rice canceled a scheduled meeting with Machar at the White House on Tuesday August6,2015.
That move from the White House has led to Machar reacting in anger and accusing the Obama Administration for “not supporting peace that the US imposed” on the warring parties – the Rebels and Government and blaming the White House for not doing more to ensure the deal is enforced on the South Sudan government, something American officials are not comfortable with nor willing to do any more. Machar blamed the South Sudan government for its refusal to demilitarize the capital of Juba by the deadline agreed in the deal.
What I don’t understand from Machar plus G10 is how the government is going to do this type of relocation of thousands of national army for a period of 30 days to the outside of Juba? That type of massive operation requires logistics, and funding and reconstruction of the new barracks, supported with the basic infrastructure that could provide basics services to the families of military personnel, for example, clinics, schools and markets, housing, military barracks, land, etc.
The rebel leader Machar asked: “Why would she (Rice) cancel such a meeting? Americans have been supporting us a lot, and in the last minute you can’t chicken out.” Machar is finally learning about and experiencing American diplomatic business. What I don’t understand is the South Sudanese rebel official making this statement, a truly silly argument to the American Administration, that the U.S is obligated and must back up the peace agreement financially, the most important demand of Machar. It was unbelievable for the rebel camp to make this statement. Of course it is obvious that Rice cancel such a meeting with the rebel leader Machar.
Machar’s frustration with the Obama White House as a result of the cancellation of the meeting has led to a deadlock, and has Machar saying: “It was symbol of the disconnection between Washington and the Rebel Camp in South Sudan.” The White House replied that the cancellation of the meeting with the parties occurred because of a lack of commitment to the peace process in South Sudan by the parties involved in peace deal.
The purpose of the State Department cancellation of the meeting was meant to allow three groups including the South Sudan government, the Rebels and G10 to have a joint meeting, with the US State Department a meeting which took place on October 8, 2015. In that meeting the rebel leader Machar and G10 were asked by American government to report to Juba, South Sudan and start implementation of peace in good faith and show commitment to the peace process.
Once again, the White House protest against all parties was meant to put pressure on the parties who signed the peace agreement to take serious actions before the Americans ran out of patience. It was a distinct possibility that the US would run out and leave everyone alone. In other words the time arrived to do a forced marriage, folks, between the South Sudan government and rebels Plus G10.
The cancellation of the White House meeting with the rebel leader Machar is a clear evidence of American frustration and the troubled relationship between the United States and South Sudan. The White House is taking the right action by putting blame on both parties to encourage them to move forward. One reason is that Rebel camp plus G10 are buying time for American support for peace implementation without making any tangible action toward the peace progress. This inaction and stalling behavior is what has made the White House change 180 degrees in dealing with the Rebel camp plus G10 and the Government.
It has now become apparent to the public that Machar’s reluctance in refusing to do anything was based on his illusion that his supporters in the White House were on his side, while instead they were acting by the cultural practice of “talk to talk” rather “walk to walk” together to implement the peace document that they all signed on August 17 2015 before the South Sudan government signed the agreement of August 26 2015. Apparently, the American position has changed and this change has surprised the Rebels plus G10 camp.
All this is good news for the Government of South Sudan (GOSS). The White House has finally recognized and acknowledged the challenges surrounding the withdrawal of the SPLA National Army from Juba City, South Sudan. American Ambassador Booth told Machar that the SPLA troops would not be leaving in time from the capital Juba to the barracks outside the city, due to the logistical issues and then Booth urged the disgruntled rebel leader to return to the capital anyway; Machar replied by calling that type of action “suicidal” and he refused to even to think about it.
What I don’t understand about Machar is this: When Machar signed the peace in 1997 Khartoum agreement with the Sudan government and then when Machar signed a separate agreement in 2002 to return to the Sudanese people liberations movement/Sudan people liberation Army (SPLM/SPLA) and then with the Khartoum regime and the 2002 Agreement in Kenya with the late Dr. John Garang, did he demand the demilitarization of Khartoum or the Garang Headquarters before going to South Sudan to implement what he signed. I don’t think so.
If not, why is he now requesting and demanding actions that may need more time to be accomplished? These are all excuses from the Machar plus the G10 Camp and are in fact strategic plans for refusing the peace agreement by applying the American military policy of “Don’t Ask and Don’t Tell” game. Now the US government has discovered the secret of the Machar plus G10. Both camps, believe me or not, will act positively toward implementation of the peace agreement, even after their departure from the US without meeting any officials or receiving US directives since both camps are so dependent on the US and EU.
Machar is already a loser on the military frontline and has few options available to him. The only exit strategy for Machar is to go to Juba and start implementation of the peace agreement. I would like to see similar actions taken by the US being taken by the European Union and East African countries as well. Believe me or not, you will see Machar and Pagan Amum, the leader G10 tomorrow at the Juba International Airport.
Machar displayed his frustration at Booth saying, “He wants me to be slaughtered by Salva, then I would be a good person…” I don’t see anything to suggest that president Kiir has any plan to slaughter Machar or anyone else in Juba. Why? Because Salva allowed Machar to escape from Juba without being hurt in the 2013 coup attempt plotted by himself and the G10.
The G10 were captured and sent to prison and later released by Kiir after accusing the plotters of an attempted coup. That type of forgiveness from President Kiir shows his humanity and love for his comrades. No leader in the whole of Africa has ever done what President Kiir did in releasing and letting go free attempted coup plotters.
African history shows it does not matter whether the accused were innocent or guilty. They would all face death in African military government history. But President Kiir did release them and later the G10 turned against him in the opposition camps. The same man who forgives them is their enemy now according to Mr. Pagan Amum, the Leader of the G10.
Machar is demanding that the US provide his troops with tents, food, medicines, water and many other supplies and assemble them for his unknown numbers of his “white army”. However, what Machar needs to recognize is that American funds must be approved through the US Congress and based on reasonable proposals with a clear rationale before such funds are released.
That process alone will make it difficult for the White House to connive with the US Congress to release money to support the rebels and to assemble their forces. The US government is struggling to feed the civilian population of South Sudan displaced by the Machar instigated war and would rather not feed an unknown “White Army” of Machar.
There is one message from the White House to the South Sudanese leaders: Americans will not be ready to inject billions of dollars in supporting some power sharing design, similar to the 2005 plan between Khartoum and SPLA/SPLM. To them it would be a waste of money in the name of supporting democracy in South Sudan, a democracy that has not shown any positive signs of being realized at any time soon by the people of South Sudan.
The only way for a peaceful resolution is for survivors of all parties to commit to a faithful implementation of peace and show commitment to peace. This commitment will help the government generate more income from oil and local resources in order to support our own peace and stop our senseless war against each other as one people of South Sudan.
To conclude, the two divorced parties – the Juba Government and Rebels plus G10 are required and obligated to force themselves into marriage again for the interests of peace, start the implementation process in good faith, by showing their willingness, commitment, and honest efforts to implement the peace, and the rebels stop their complaints to the EU, the US, the African Union, etc. When the parties involved agreed to a peace agreement that meant they would have to work in partnership in the interest of implementation of the peace agreement.
The People of South Sudan have suffered so much for a senseless war in the country. It is high time to silence the guns in order to allow the nation building process, the peace building process, national reconciliation to proceed. These are pillars that could pave the way for a peaceful national election in 2018 and would allow the people of South Sudan to make their choices of government in a democratic atmosphere.
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