What has become of President Kiir’s 28 states decree?
By PaanLuel Wël, Karatina, Kenya
December 24, 2015 (SSB) — In the euphoria of welcoming back the rebels in the name of peace and reconciliation and, hopefully, national rejuvenation, we still have a white elephant in the room—the establishment order of the 28 states that was recently approved by the national assembly.
Although the president is yet to appoint the 28 governors, the decree still hangs ominously like the sword of Damocles over the minds of Junubeen.
There is a palpable feeling that the minute the government implement the 28 states decree, chances are high that the rebels might decide to evacuate Juba for Pagak—effectively boycotting the formation of the transitional government just as they have been threatening.
Not only would this mark the death of the IGAD peace deal but would also herald the resumption of military offensives across the country.
On the other hand, as was demonstrably clear when it was announced, the decree is very popular with government supporters; therefore, any attempt by the president to rescind it might have some repercussions on his political and military standing.
Some of his die-hard supporters in Upper Nile and Unity states have saluted the establishment order as a resounding gesture that the president was not going to betray them: placing them under the governorship of the very rebels whom they have been battling for the last two years.
Either way, whether the president revoke or implement the 28 states decree, it will still have direct and long-lasting consequences, both at the local and national levels.
On the one hand, hopes have been raised and now wait to be shattered. On the other hand, the international community, IGAD, and the rebels would demand nothing less than an unconditional revocation of the establishment order.
If the prevailing state of affairs in Juba is any guide, however, it is becoming harder to grasp how the president would really implement the 28 states without getting into direct confrontation with not just the rebels but also the international community, a confrontation that he might not afford given the dire economic state of his government following the floating of the pound against the dollar.
We can basically venture that the 28 states decree would be quietly shelved, just like the once publicized reshuffling of the cabinet.
Once upon a time in Juba, there was a much-publicized reshuffling of the government, after parliament (that very hardworking institution) awarded President Kiir a bonus of three extra years. That cabinet reshuffling never saw the light of the day; it was quietly shelved to preclude ex-ministers Deng, Gatkuoth and Lado from marching to the bush.
Again, just like before, we can Christmas-ly bet that the establishment order would be quietly shelved until, in the euphoria (squabbling) of sharing the carcass of the government of national unity, no one would remember it.
Yet, the establishment order will have long-term ramifications on the politics of South Sudan. For one, it will once more time ascertains that President Kiir is President Kiir—a leader who says one thing and follows the other, without the slightest scruple.
It is becoming his enduring legacy. It might prove his sole undoing as no one, not even Madam Ayendit, would take him seriously.
Secondly, during the interim period, the rebels will be extra cautious to bring up the question of federalism, for they will be met with the map of the 28 states.
A democratic referendum on Riek Machar’s 21 states and President Kiir’s 28 states would be an interesting, and much welcome, political development in the short history of the Republic of South Sudan.
Which one will win the hearts and minds of Junubeen: 21 states or 28 states?
For the peace-loving, much enlightened Equatorians though, the Republic of South Sudan consists of three states only: Upper Nile, Bahr el Ghazal and Equatoria states.
The debate (if any) over the 21 or 28 states is a sideshow—an unwelcome distraction by the trigger-happy cattle keepers commandeered by Salva Kiir and Riek Machar.
Come to think of it, love it or hate it, the 28 states decree might have inadvertently set the stage for the evolution of paanluel wel (words), instead of paanluel dhang (gun) as currently the case in the war-torn South Sudan.
And that could make for a remarkable legacy for President Kiir: bequeathing a thriving democratic nation-state to the next leader after his retirement from active politics.
Merry Christmas and happy New Year Junub Thudan!!
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