Let’s get sober and rational: observations on the new Jonglei state government
4 min readBy PaanLuel Wël, Bor, South Sudan
March 7, 2016 (SSB) — Before Agwer arrived in Bor: there were 8 MPs, 4 MPs and 2 MPs for Bor, Twic East and Duk counties respectively, a power ratio of 4:2:1.
After Agwer arrived in Bor as governor, and added 7 extra MPs to make 21 MPs for the new Jonglei state, there are now 12 MPs, 6 MPs, 3 MPs for Bor, Twic East and Duk Counties in that order, which is, AGAIN, a power ratio of 4: 2: 1
Clearly, Governor Agwer simply maintains the existing power ratio, whatever it was based on. Surprisingly, neither Twic East nor Duk County has ever contested this power ratio before the arrival of Agwer in Bor
Based on that pre-Agwer power ratio, the distribution of ministerial positions should have been 4 ministers, 2 ministers, and 1 minister for Bor, Twic East and Duk counties respectively.
However, Agwer decided to make it 4 ministers for Bor, 1 minister for Twic and 2 ministers for Duk. The reason, perhaps, being the storm ignited by the distribution of MPs
But how did the actual selection process happen? 3 ministers were selected by the 3 communities—Bor, Twic and Duk—and 4 ministers were selected by Governor Agwer himself. Of these 4, one was given to Duk County and 3 to Bor County. Twic East remained with the one selected by the community.
Why did Agwer do that? Because, according to him, it is his prerogative to select the best qualified people based on their “technical professionalism”. Secondly, he said he did not come to change the status quo but, like Jesus, to affirm it.
For one, Agwer, who has been a great communicator with SPLA, can barely make his case to the Greater Bor community. He is yet to dispute the prevailing wisdom that he is being manipulated by certain personalities: Makwei Lueth and Kuol Manyang, to cite the prevailing narrative.
Secondly, Twic and Duk communities should be honest with themselves and face up with the stark reality: where have they been all these times when the ratio of 4:2:1 was first broached and established?
Maybe a little apology to their respective communities should be the first step for their leaders. Were you sleeping on the job sirs?
Thirdly, given the intensity generated by the power sharing ratio within the Greater Bor community, the consensus of rotational leadership (governorship) might break down; any future gubernatorial election might end up being a contest of Bor vs Duk/Twic communities.
That must be avoided by all means. Governor Agwer must do everything possible within his “prerogatives” to preclude that scenario being his enduring legacy.
Fourthly, what is my personal take, position, on this debate?
As someone who espouses the theory of tribocracy, I think, the pre-Agwer power ratio makes sense, based on the 2010 census, irrespective of whether or not the census reflect the true constituent composition of the Greater Bor area, and irrespective of what President Kiir said when the census results were released (that it should never be used as a basis for power and wealth sharing between Juba and Khartoum.)
When it comes to taxation, the ratio should be maintained, with Bor County contributing the lion share of the state taxes, commensurable to their population, which is roughly 54% of new Jonglei state.
Lastly, there is still hope for the aggrieved parties. The IGAD peace deal has mandated the conduct of a national census before the next general election. By then, the numbers for the three counties of the Greater Bor area could be markedly different, like the one in the table below, the 1931 census of the Greater Bor region:
PaanLuel Wël, the managing editor of PaanLuel Wel: South Sudanese Bloggers (SSB), graduated with a double major in Economics and Philosophy from The George Washington University, Washington D.C, USA. He is the author of Who Killed Dr. John Garang and also the Editor of the essential speeches and writings of the late SPLM/A leader, Dr. John Garang, published as The Genius of Dr. John Garang, vol. 1-3. You can reach him through his email: paanluel2011@gmail.com or Facebook page
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