Why is Dr. Riek Machar Refusing to Come Home?
By Samuel Reech Mayen, Kampala, Uganda
March 12, 2016 (SSB) — While Kuormidit is wandering and endlessly smiling around the globe, the minds wonder of what has become of the Agreement on Conflict Resolution in South Sudan (ACRISS) the rivals parties signed in August 2015. Since then, it’s going to seven months now. This provokes the question of whether it was indeed a genuine peace or a sham meant to brew something else. Unless Dr. Riek comes out to explain clearly the cause of his delay, the minds preempt many possible reasons, some or all these preemptions might be true.
Could it be that Dr. Riek fear what might transpire among his forces in Pagak when he comes to Juba? Some of his forces may not be happy with peace accord. These groups might be waiting for Dr. Machar to take up his old position in Juba to confirm that the war was merely for re-instating him. He may be thinking these forces can be grabbed by any of his generals and declare him a selfish leader. Those who are not happy with this peace may join General Peter Gatdet or form their own independent moments leaving Dr. Riek without forces as was the case in 2002 when he joined the SPLM.
This ground of fear cannot be ignored for the recent defection of General Makuach Teny might have been brewing and provoked fear. With Makuach coming from the same Dok section with Dr. Riek, there are possible worries that if his county-men begin to rebel, what of the other Nuer sections who have contributed much blood to see Dr. Machar climbs the political ladder? With this fear, he might be restructuring his forces in a manner which suits him to know what happens in Pagak and other areas on daily basis.
The other possible reason is the fear of unknown in Juba. Fully aware that the citizens of South Sudan have suffered horribly in the time Dr. Riek claims to be pursuing democracy, those who have lost their loved ones at both side of the conflict are unhappy. He may decide to buy time so that his bitter victims cool off before he appears on their sights.
Dr. Riek might also be consulting with Ngundeng’s experts to get the clear picture of the days ahead. Ngundeng has prophesied everything about him but has not mentioned how or when he will die. Or paradoxically, Ngundeng believers have refused to interpret anything connected with Dr. Riek death.
In the case of the late Dr. John Garang, his political role, the time and how he would die were clearly spelled out in the views of Ngundeng’s experts. When Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed, Dr. Garang mentioned something about leaving the world to those who claimed to have divine qualifications (Dr. Gerang’s speech in Nyayo stadium, Nairobi, 9 January 2005). In line with this statement, Ngundeng believers claim Dr. Garang mission came to an end after signing CPA and what followed was a fulfillment of the prophesy.
Dr. Riek has just signed peace but Ngundeng believers have come up with another worrying prophesy. A prophesy which claims a certain leader will die at this time of the transition. Though these Ngundeng followers want to pretend the prophecy refers to another leader, it still sends shock of cool waves down Riek’s spinal code for Ngundeng’s prophesies are not clear till fulfilled. With this fear, Dr. Riek might be straining his ears to listen to the recorded Ngundeng’s songs (Ngundeng prophesies are in form of songs which have been sung and recorded by other people in the mid 1980s) to know whether he is the one being referred to. He may not trust his ears and prefers other experts to interpret word by word. This scanning through the old songs exercise is time consuming.
But Dr. Riek other thought might be on the political situation in Uganda. For him, Uganda has just conducted disputed elections and chances might be high for instability in that country. As the elections results are being criticized by the international community and the oppositions’ candidates, he thinks President Museveni may have internal issues to attend to. He believes that Dr. Kizza Besigye, the leading opposition candidate will be making alarm till things turn bitter. His hope has been raised by the elections petition by Hon. Amama Mbabazi, one of the presidential candidates who claims the elections have been rigged by the ruling NRM. Dr. Riek believes Uganda which has been supportive to South Sudan government may face political challenges within and will not cross borders to support other governments.
With this wish and hope, he looks at it as another opportunity to mobilize his supporters around the world and re-launch another phase of the war hopping that Uganda will be out of the game. This might be one reason the big man doesn’t want to come to Juba. If Uganda doesn’t drop into instability, he will come to Juba with false pretense that he had serious issues he was addressing.
The other ground might be a hope and wish that the economy continues to pain the citizens deep into their bones. Dr. Riek believes the government has got enough problems. Since the government is losing the economic battle, for him, he has got a good support at his side in the name of the collapsing economy. In such a dire situation, Kuormidit wishes anything to happen between the government and the citizens. The economic battle which is a big challenge to the government is his fortune, and continues to brag about it.
Or maybe the white army (jesh Mabor) that formed much of Machar’s forces has declared the end of the service on the day peace was signed leaving him with nobody but commissioned officers who cannot perform the role of the guards. Dr, Riek might be struggling to convince them to escort him to Juba till 2018. This process might take time as cattle raiders from Boma state are looking at their neighbours fiercely.
Some of these or all might be the reaons why Kuormidit doesn’t want to come to Juba. Possibly, he will come when things go the opposite direction. He just needs time to prove the impossibility of his hopes and wishes. Fingers cross, he may come so that the clock ticks through the thirty-month transition.
The author is a student living in Uganda and can be reached at: mayenreech@gmail.com or +256 772 727 857
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