KIIR vs RIEK (IN)SECURITY for the Republic of South Sudan
By Junior William Deng, Kampala, Uganda
March 13, 2016 (SSB) —- The country is waiting for the arrival of IO’s forces from Pagaak to Juba this month and subsequent reception of country’s 1st Vice President (Dr. Riek Machar Teny-Dhurgon). Many lapses of arrival of his forces have been greasingly sticking for the FVP to come; with preparations under way, we expect Riek Machar to come so soonest.
While in Juba, President Kiir through his commanders are making & putting last touches on the deployment and cantonment of the SPLA forces as described by the ARCISS; this will see forces moved outward to the circumference or 25 miles radius: approximately Luri North, Mongere, Jebel Bonga or Jebelell. It’s expected to have cleared Juba for marauding soldiers, suspicious movements and/or possible egoistical postures among the militants that may endanger the lives of people and that of the Compromise Peace Agreement (CPA-2).
During such a time when implementation of the ARCISS is officially launched by FVP taking oath of allegiance of office and the constitution , new cabinet docketed and subsequent NLA procession welcomed, our society will only anticipate a peaceful, harmonious and progressive implementation of ARCISS fully in latter and spirit. But, the presence of two rivalry forces, moreover tribally engrained with tribal hegemony, each principal with support from his tribesmen, a lot will have to be desired.
In security theory, we are yet to be presented with many challenges of those forces: the SPLA Juba and SPLA- IO. There are chances that these forces are not deployed for the protection of the civilian, properties and rights, their main responsibility is solely to defend J1and Riek Machar. In recent months, their activities were regime centric: defense against enemy, VIP protection, protection of interest groups, parties or associates, identifying defense areas and motioning specific based commanders, finally mapping strategic exit positions and possibilities.
This is a result of fear and panic and sheer raucous euphoria instilled into the forces borne from 2013 mischief. Now all camps are preparing should worse happen and should there be any possible provocation, or if there is an armed threat against any principal. Many citizens will try to join camps and compete for loyalty making every chance of genuine peace fades slowly. Much of it is going to be loyalty competitive maneuvers among ministers, undersecretaries, directors, ambassadors and both armed forces.
An increased practical institutionalization of this competitive strategy, will create a hot spot between the principals. Failure to tame it will acrimoniously send vicious signals to forces and tribes hence an attempt by each group to scuffle those dissensions may poke a spike for an offense or defense culminating into a new war…an anticipated upgrade of December 15, 2013. In such a fracas, the forces meant for protection of the principals and the regime may turn out to be insecurity forces to our society and may cause severe casualties and total disintegration of the state- possible loss of people’s sovereignty and everything else.
All of us know all these possibilities but one thing we are not certain is when it will happen. Given current country’s economic rush, social crackdown with looming threat of humanitarian crisis…anything stupid can burry our country completely, so what do we do? There is no miracle or anything divine that can stop such a catastrophic possibility; it’s only the political will of the ruling elite particularly the principals can mitigate it and save us. It is not easy when political will is not determined by patriotic endeavors but by number of followers and interest stakes in the governance of the country and its resources. So whoever that is not going to get minimum gain in the distribution of governance and resources will eventually reign short of implementation of peace and may again mobilise for local support and those affected by his exclusion in arms . This may lead to a coerced entry, that’s admission into the same system through the barrel of gun. It has always been the case for militias.
So it is advisable that the principals stop military influence in political takings and embark on doing things in constitutional manner; this is going to be the first dose. Second, will be harnessing forces to their barracks whether stated in the ARCISS or not; principals can get plain clothes security agents for protection and save the city from bizarrely presence of heavy armed men. In addition, make sure they are properly cantoned permanently to allow space for civic engagement and freedoms; this is how trust can be gauged from the civilians and will add conditions for nurturing tolerance among elites and the top echelons of the government.
Thirdly, TGoNU must make concessions to the citizens: free press or speech, criticism of the president and his cabinet, increased protection of the citizens and disbandment of illegal arrests of all citizens. Allowing citizens to embrace their government by participating fully in repiloting the country towards democratic transition.
Lastly, the principals should set their objectives towards getting relative security of the citizens not their security. They should unite in tightening national security loose valves: banking institutions, procurement departments, judiciary, Parliament, security sector, UNIMISS and those institutions of national importance. This will help in stopping inflow and outflow of illegal monies, foreign covet agents and espionage activities from shattering our transition. It’s going to be seen whether the association of President Kiir and Dr. Riek forces (both tribal in nature) is going to be insecurity or security; citizens will determine their possible facades.
Junior William Deng
Kampala, Uganda
Email. dengthiy2004@gmail.com
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