The Future of South Sudan: The dashing hope of the bread of freedom
18 min readThe Future of South Sudan: Many South Sudanese had hope that it is now a country where everyone will finally enjoy the bread of freedom
By Ayuen Garang Ajok, Washington DC, USA
Abstract
March 30, 2016 (SSB) —- This paper is analyzed the current political implications in South Sudan. It also analyzed problems that are affecting the people of South Sudan, and the role of South Sudanese political elites. This paper will also determine factors that are confronting the Republic of South Sudan and the sources of recent conflict that broke out on December 15, 2013 between SPLA/M and Dr. Riek’s rebel group in South Sudan.
- Introduction
The Republic of South Sudan (RSS) gained its independence on July 9, 2011 through the act of self-determination. When South Sudanese voted for their independence through referendum, nearly 99 percent of South Sudanese overwhelming voted for autonomy of their country.[1] After independence, the RSS was recognized as fifty-fourth state in Africa and 193rd member of the United Nations (UN).
Concretely, after South Sudan referendum, one might have drawn to argue that the facts that South Sudan was finally free as a nation, South Sudan will forge a high level of stability in which South Sudanese will be free from conflict that have devastated their country after 22 years of conflict that came to an end on July 9th 2011.[2] Precisely, in order for one to make such assumptions, it is important for one to disregard potential source of conflicts in South Sudan. This paper will looks at the roles Kiir’s administration played in the conflict that is tearing the nation of South Sudan apart.
2. Historical Background
Sudan gained its independence on January 1, 1956 from Great Britain. Twenty-seven years after independence, in 1983, Sudan’s first civil war started between the Sudan People Liberaion Army/Movement (SPLA/M) and the Sudanese government, which was led by Gaafar Nimeiry and Sadiq al-Mahdi. In 1989 Omar Hasan al-Bashir rose to a rank of a highest military junta in Sudan’s government, and through his ranking, he took power through a military coup. Bashir’s rise to power marked the beginning of Sudan’s second civil war. When Bashir rose to power, his main goal was to assert the Arab-Islam rule of law over Sudan. Concretely, when Dr. John Garang de- Mabior the founder of SPLA/M saw the goal of the Arabs in the Sudan’s conflict, he began to fight for the rights of the Southerners through act self-determination in Sudan.[3]
When we deeply analyzed the roots causes of the North-South conflict in the past, the roots causes are stated to range from racial, cultural, and religious differences to impulses for power and control of Sudan’s labor, land, water, and minerals. On the much serious note, oil conflict was identified to be the main cause of the conflict was oil, which is located in the border regions between the north and the south.[4] Statistically, during the conflict in the Sudan more than two million people have died as a result of the results of the conflict. Some became victims of direct violence or conflict-related starvation and disease. However, half a million refugees were forced into neighboring countries, and roughly four million people have been displaced and driven from their homes within Sudan.[5]
- Theory
Figure 1:
In this working paper, the theoretical framework that will be use is Ted Gurr (1970) theory of relative deprivation, and Simon Kuznets Curve to determine what factors led developing countries to violence and inequality. Relative deprivation theory and Kuznets curve will are applied in the case of the current political chaos in the nation state of South Sudan. In Gurr’s (1970) theoretical approach, he defined relative deprivation (RD) “as actors, perception of discrepancy between their value expectations and their value capabilities”.[6] However, Gurr (1970), value expectations is defined to be ” those goods and conditions of life to which people believe they are rightfully entitled, and value capabilities are goods and conditions they think they are capable of getting and keeping”.[7]
The author defined political violence as “all collective attacks within a political community against the political regime, its actors – including competing political groups as well as incumbents or its policies.”[8] In the theory, “frustration” is stated to be an interference with good directed behavior, and “aggression” is stated to be a behavior designed to injure, physically toward whom it is directed to.[9] The UN Security Council defined “rule of law” as a “government of laws, the supremacy of the law, and equality before the law.” [10]
Inequality and corruption has plagued the nation of South Sudan. Only few individuals are getting richer and richer and millions of people remain poor in the country. In order to analyze factors lies behind inequality in South Sudan, we must first understand the Kuznets inverted curve and the Gini-coefficient. In the context, Kuznets hypothesis helps explains the complexity that contributes to inequality in the RSS. Fields (2012) states that Kuznets curve, tends to increase at the early stage of economic development when there is high inequality, but then inequality decreases in the long run.[11] Fields (2012) also argues that Kuznets hypothesis tends to increase returns to scale, capital market imperfection, human capital, accumulation, occupation choice, migration, trade liberalization, or the emerging of new organizational forms in a short run.[12]
Another theory for measuring inequality is Gini- coefficient of inequality. The Gini- coefficient is considers by economist as a great tool of measuring inequality. Many economists argued that Gini-coefficient measures the areas between the Lorenz curve and a hypothetical line of absolute equality. As indicated in figure 2 below, when the Gini index lies 0 based on the measurement, that represents perfect equality, which means incomes are distributed equally, but if the index represent 1, that means there is greater inequality, which means incomes are distributed among small number of people.[13]
Figure 2.[14
2. The Current leadership and Conflict in South Sudan
Gurr’s (1970) causal model of political violence has provided the theory of relative deprivation, which helps in analyzing the root causes of why South Sudan’s conflict might have started on December 15, 2013 and why ordinary citizens in the Republic of South Sudan were frustrated with the way Kiir’s administration is running the country. Gurr argued that when there is a large gap between value expectations and value capabilities, then those who are denied opportunities from the value expectations and value capabilities feel angry and frustrated, and push for violence through anger and frustration.[15] When South Sudan gained independence from the Arab North, South Sudanese were extremely happy that South Sudan is finally a free land from Arab rulers. Many southerners had hope that South Sudan is now a country where everyone will finally enjoy the bread of freedom. The birth of young nation gave hope to all of Southerners. Every Southerner did not want to be rule by the Arabs and be called the second-class citizen in his/her own country. People needed South Sudan that was free and equal for all regardless of different ethnicities. The citizens of South Sudan wanted a country that would create opportunities for their citizens in term of market liberalization, democracy, labor markets, and prosperity for all.
When South Sudan declared independence from the Republic of Sudan, everyone was happy because it was the first time in history that South Sudanese were finally freed from the Arab rule. The referendum of South Sudan brought smiles and joy for the first time to the faces of the first generation of war.
As the theory of relative deprivation has stated that frustrated people sometimes push toward political violence in order to get their value expectations and value capabilities[16] fulfilled, and that’s exactly what happened in South Sudan on December 15, 2013. The conflict that started on December 15, 2013 between the presidential bodyguards and those loyal to Dr. Riek Machar was driven by political motivation against the government of South Sudan. The incumbent Dr. Machar was not happy with the way Kiir’s administration was running the country and that’s why the political violence in South Sudan started on December 15, 2013.
On December 15, 2013, the Kiir’s administration struggled with an internal power struggle within the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). During the power struggle, Kiir and Dr. Machar accused each other politically and military. The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) became involved in the dispute, which later led to fighting in military barracks in the capital, Juba, on the evening of 15 December, initially among the Presidential Guards. Because of the power struggle, the SPLA got disintegrated and a political crisis spiraled and a fierce fighting began, a fighting that later on spread across the country within days. Within days thousands of civilians were killed and displacement of civilians occurred on a massive scale. An estimated over one million South Sudanese have fled their homes since 15 December.[17]
According to the United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS), it is stated that the conflict in South Sudan was marked by the failure of the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (Government) as well as of the opposition forces to protect civilians from violence. The failure of government to take role in the conflict, led to massive human rights violation the occurred in South Sudan. The violent conflict was concentrated namely in the capital Juba and the three States of Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile in the greater Upper Nile region.[18]
In the theory of relative deprivation (RD), value expectations are identified to be those goods and conditions of life to which people believe they are rightfully entitled to. Value capabilities are specified to be goods and conditions people think they are capable of getting and keeping.[19] This theory of relative deprivation as a model of understanding the cause of political violence has highlighted that the risk of violent conflict is often caused over competition of resources and over socioeconomic activities in a given region.[20] Based on the analysis, it is concluded that the root causes of the South South conflict were rooted in resources, power, oil and greed.[21]
According to Gurr’s causal model of political violence it’s stated that when men are not happy “men are angered over the loss of what they once had or thought they could have; they experience by reference to their own past”.[22] In this theory, loss of what a person once had could lead to anger. The difficulties that people often encountered from their oppressors, could lead that anger into a form of conflict where people want to see some change made within a political regime, and in this case, that’s what exactly happened in Kiir’s administration. In this case, the theory of relative deprivation has provided concrete evidence why political violence brings impact to ordinary people.[23] With the application of the model of political violence in South Sudan as a case, one could argue that the conflict was based on resources, while this conflict ranges from different socioeconomic issues such, power, greed, religious differences, minerals, and discrimination.[24] This theory helped in analyzing and helps in understanding why competition over resources is important to understand.[25] Also, in the relative deprivation theory, it’s argues that when a large number of people are denied benefits from their regional prosperity, this could lead into a violent conflict or violent political mobilization.[26]
No one knew that conflict will ever occurred again in the newly born nation, but I guess that everyone was wrong in their imaginations. On December 15, 2013, the fight broke out between factions in the South Sudanese capital Juba. The conflict broke out and the conflict spread to other parts of the country, displacing tens of thousands of civilians. About 62,000 civilians were internally displaced persons (IDPs), where humanitarian were not able to reach them due to the factors of conflict. [27]
The people from the Republic of South Sudan have experienced a perpetual long period of conflict. The country has never experience a peaceful time where ordinary citizen have enjoyed the fruit of so-called freedom. South Sudan is an infant country and has been plagued by ethnic conflicts, insecurity and it’s underdeveloped. The country lack infrastructure development and its future is uncertainty due to lack of leadership and strong institutional framework.
The ongoing conflict in South Sudan has deeply affecting the nation of South Sudan awfully. Due to such conflict a quarter of a million children are identified to be severely malnourished. Since December, the armed conflict between the government forces and the rebel has left thousands of civilians dead and driven more than 1.3 million South Sudanese from their homes. It’s stated that in the coming month, people will face starvation and disease if violence keeps displacing families from returning home to plant their crops, as it is noted that majority of people in South Sudan rely on smallholder farming for survival.[28]It is stated that over 7 million people are at risk of food insecurity and 4.9 million of them are in urgent need of humanitarian aid.[29]
According to Oxfam International (2014) it is stated that since the fight broke out between the government of South Sudan troops and force loyal to Riek Machar, over million people have fled their home and now displaced within South Sudan as IDPs. It’s also estimated that more than 80,000 people have sought refuge at various UN compounds across the country. In Juba, 80 percent of displaced people are women and children. In addition, more than 350,000 people have fled to neighboring countries, many of whom had to cross the Nile River on their way to Uganda, leaving everything they had behind and risking their lives. Because of the conflict in South Sudan many are experiencing cholera outbreak that was confirmed mid-May, that bringing the imminent threat of a health emergency alongside an escalating food crisis. In South Sudan only 15% of people have access to adequate sanitary latrines and 30% do not have access to safe water supply.[30]
- Recommendations
Recommendation 1: South Sudan must develop robust institutional reforms.
In order for the nation of South Sudan to prevail as a nation, the RSS’s administration must engage in a transparent government that will bring peace to the nation of South Sudan. The conflict that has plagued the country needs to be put to an end, so that peace is brought back to the people. The divisive politics in Juba need to be discouraged in the central government. The call for unification of all South Sudanese must be prioritize in the nation of South Sudan. In addition, President Kiir and his so call comrades in Juba must come up with a constitution that will help guide South Sudanese regardless of their race, culture, ethnicity, or religious differences.
Recommendation 2: South Sudan should adopt anti- corruption laws.
Corruption in South Sudan exists in all sectors of the nation’s economy. Many of the government officials are politically corrupted and in most cases they all misuse their powers. Corruption is prevalent in South Sudan and that will leave the country underdeveloped if corruption is not eliminated. As we know that the issue of corruption in South Sudan is a serious problem. The governments’ officials in the young nation divert public funds into their own pockets and started buying big homes in foreign countries, and that includes that they send their children to better schools and leave majority of the poor in the country to suffer. The issue of corruption is damaging to the country development. For example in 2012, President Salva Kiir accused at least 75 current and ex-government officials of embezzling US$4bn of public funds. In an extraordinary letter to the 75 senior staff, he demanded the funds to be returned anonymously to a bank account in Kenya. He also declares “most of these funds have been taken out of the country and deposited in foreign accounts” (The Guardian, 2012). Some have purchased properties, often paid in cash. Since the letters were written, about US$60m of the money that was used in various ministries has been recovered but the parliaments suspended the suspected officials until they are convicted or acquitted (BBC News, 2012).[31] The Republic of South Sudan needs to put in place anti-corruption laws. The government should hold accountable government officials that embezzled public fund to the high standard by the rule of law. If the Republic of South Sudan adopts such mechanisms, then corruption will be eliminated in our nation. No one should be left alone or free once they have embezzled public funds.
Recommendation 3: Improve insecurity in South Sudan
Insecurity is a big factor that is facing citizen of our young nation. As it is seen it in Jonglei state, the issue of children being abducted from their homes by Murle and cattle rustling in the area is hindering in security in the regions. The government of South Sudan needs to come up with mechanisms on how to provide protection to civilians that live in urban and remote areas. Lack of security in South Sudan can make South Sudan unsafe for investors that come to South Sudan to invest in roads, infrastructure, and schools and many other infrastructure activities. In order for development to take place in South Sudan, the government of South Sudan must come up with strategies on how to address the issue of insecurity in the country.
Recommendation 4: Promote Trade and Market liberalization
According to the British economist Adam Smith, the founder of modern economic, he argued in his theory that free trade and free market are profoundly important in economic growth and in economic development.[32] The author described in his argument that when countries are engaged in free trade, they are be able to have a competitive advantage because each country is able to produce things that they are specializes in and this allows firms and individual to trade freely because they are good in what they produce.[33]
When it comes to the notion of free trade, some countries benefit over others because of competitive advantage presented by free market. The country who has more skilled workers and is advanced tends to benefit the most, but the less advanced nations in the global south, where unskilled workers are the ones who hurt the most.[34] Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, Pavcnik, Nina (2007) argued that globalization always increased economic interdependence of countries. Because of such interdependence, often there is going to be increase of flows of goods and services across borders, reductions in policy and transport barriers to trade, international capital flows, multinational activity, foreign direct investment, outsourcing, increased exposure to exchange rate volatility, and immigration. The authors stated that the movements of goods, services, capital, firms, and people are believed to have contribute to the spread of technology, knowledge, culture, and information across borders.[35] Fields (2014) argues that the reasons why globalization does not work well in developing countries is the fact that governments in developing countries don’t provide for the poor. There are no insurance and social security in developing countries.[36] In this case, I would argue for South Sudan to open its market to other investors in term market liberalization.
–
Ayuen Garang Ajok, the author, studied Master of Public Administration (2015), majoring in Economics and Financial Policy, at Cornell University in the USA. He can be reached through his Email: aga46@cornell.edu
–
References:
Austria – UNSC & Rule of Law (1). Notepad
Amusan Lere. Germinating Seeds of Future Conflict in South Sudan. African Conflicts & Peacebuilding Review, Volume 4, Number 1, Spring 2014 , pp. 120-133
Gary Fields, Working Hard, Working Poor: A Global Journey (WHWP), 2012
Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970.
Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, Pavcnik, Nina.Distribtional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Literature. 45.1 (Mar 2007): 39-82. http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/World%20development%20report%202013%20-%20part%202.pdf
Government of the Republic of South Sudan. http://www.goss.org/
Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. “Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” International Studies Quarterly 53.2 (2009): 301-324. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 31 Jan. 2011.
Paul Collier and Nicholas Sambanis (eds). THE SUDAN’S CIVILWAR: WHY HAS IT PREVAILED FOR SO LONG? Washington, DC: 2005. https://woc.uc.pt/feuc/course/Dout-PIRC/2008-2009/Ali%20et%20al%20-%20Sudan.pdf
United States Institute of Peace. Washington, D.C. 2007: http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr194.pdf
The World Bank (2014). http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI
United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS). Conflict in South Sudan: A Human Rights Report.2014.http://www.unmiss.unmissions.org/Portals/unmiss/Human%20Rights%20Reports/UNMISS%20Conflict%20in%20South%20Sudan%20-%20A%20Human%20Rights%20Report.pdf
http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr194.pdf
South Sudan: IOM assists conflict-displaced civilians in south Sudan. (2013). MENA Report, Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/1470828760?accountid=10267
South Sudan conflict: Children face starvation and disease as fighting continues: 2014. http://www.worldvision.org/news-stories-videos/south-sudan-conflict-humanitarian-response
Crisis in South Sudan. http://www.oxfam.org/en/sudan-southsudan-crisis
Overview of Corruption and anti –corruption in South Sudan
Stiglitz, Joseph E. Making Globalization Work. New York: W.W. Norton & Co, 2006. Print.
[1] Government of the Republic of South Sudan. http://www.goss.org/
[2] Amusan Lere. Germinating Seeds of Future Conflict in South Sudan. African Conflicts & Peacebuilding Review, Volume 4, Number 1, Spring 2014 , pp. 120-133
[3] Paul Collier and Nicholas Sambanis (eds). THE SUDAN’S CIVILWAR: WHY HAS IT PREVAILED FOR SO LONG? Washington, DC: 2005. https://woc.uc.pt/feuc/course/Dout-PIRC/2008-2009/Ali%20et%20al%20-%20Sudan.pdf
[4] United States Institute of Peace. Washington, D.C. 2007: http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr194.pdf
[5] Collier, Paul and Nicholas Sambanis (eds). THE SUDAN’S CIVILWAR: WHY HAS IT PREVAILED FOR SO LONG? Washington, DC: 2005. https://woc.uc.pt/feuc/course/Dout-PIRC/2008-2009/Ali%20et%20al%20-%20Sudan.pdf
[6] Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970.
[7] Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970.
[8] Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970.
[9] Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970.
[10] Austria – UNSC & Rule of Law (1).Notepad
[11] Gary Fields, Working Hard, Working Poor: A Global Journey (WHWP), 2012
[12] Gary Fields, Working Hard, Working Poor: A Global Journey (WHWP), 2012
[13] The World Bank (2014). http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI
[14]http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTPOVERTY/EXTPA/0,,contentMDK:20238991~menuPK:492138~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:430367,00.html
[15] Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. “Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” International Studies Quarterly 53.2 (2009): 301-324. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 31 Jan. 2011.
[16] Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970.
[17]United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS). Conflict in South Sudan: A Human Rights Report.2014.http://www.unmiss.unmissions.org/Portals/unmiss/Human%20Rights%20Reports/UNMISS%20Conflict%20in%20South%20Sudan%20-%20A%20Human%20Rights%20Report.pdf
[18]United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS). Conflict in South Sudan: A Human Rights Report.2014.http://www.unmiss.unmissions.org/Portals/unmiss/Human%20Rights%20Reports/UNMISS%20Conflict%20in%20South%20Sudan%20-%20A%20Human%20Rights%20Report.pdf
[19]Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970.
[20] Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. “Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” International Studies Quarterly 53.2 (2009): 301-324. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 31 Jan. 2011.
[21] http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr194.pdf
[22] Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970
[23]Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970
[24] Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Published for the Center of International Studies, Princeton University [by] Princeton University Press, 1970
[25] Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. “Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” International Studies Quarterly 53.2 (2009): 301-324. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 31 Jan. 2011.
[26]Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. “Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” International Studies Quarterly 53.2 (2009): 301-324. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 31 Jan. 2011.
[27] South Sudan: IOM assists conflict-displaced civilians in south Sudan. (2013). MENA Report, Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/1470828760?accountid=10267
[28]South Sudan conflict: Children face starvation and disease as fighting continues: 2014. http://www.worldvision.org/news-stories-videos/south-sudan-conflict-humanitarian-response
[29] South Sudan conflict: Children face starvation and disease as fighting continues: 2014. http://www.worldvision.org/news-stories-videos/south-sudan-conflict-humanitarian-response
[30] Crisis in South Sudan. http://www.oxfam.org/en/sudan-southsudan-crisis
[31] Overview of Corruption and anti –corruption in South Sudan
[32] Stiglitz, Joseph E. Making Globalization Work. New York: W.W. Norton & Co, 2006. Print.
[33] Stiglitz, Joseph E. Making Globalization Work. New York: W.W. Norton & Co, 2006. Print.
[34] Stiglitz, Joseph E. Making Globalization Work. New York: W.W. Norton & Co, 2006. Print.
Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, Pavcnik, Nina.Distribtional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Literature. 45.1 (Mar 2007): 39-82. http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/World%20development%20report%202013%20-%20part%202.pdf
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