The SPLM/A-IO: A STOLEN MOVEMENT (Part 3)
You SPLM-IO: What is your plan B now that the government is showing its true colors?
By Buay Kandong Liem, Ethiopia
April 13, 2016 (SSB) —- With all my little exposures to politics and related experiences, instinct had it to me in the heart that IO is not going good considering the realities that are overshadowing on daily bases the implementation of their Compromise Peace Agreement with Kiir. That the IO is not going good as far as the peace agreement is concern is being affirm slowly now. With that yesterday’s arrests and harassments done to IO members in Juba and others of similar gravity, doubts that many have been harboring about the credibility of the August peace deal are more than ever and vividly brought to light magnified: how really credible the South Sudanese Compromise Peace Agreement? Where is the international community’s will that have imposed the peace in question at will when the very peace they have imposed is being made difficult by some signatories to it in its implementation process? For all I know, Kiir is just doing what they have put as ways to get over with it all even if it amount to violations of the peace he had signed.
It is not a surprise to me that the IO advance team members can be arrested and beaten badly like mad dogs and like individuals with no immunity at all. In reality though they can never have immunity from Kiir’s guys whatsoever the case and they will never have one including Machar. Worse than that of their yesterday’s experience could have been done to them and no culprits can be accounted. Let us wait for Machar’s going to Juba. The dream that he will be receive a hero is only a wishful thinking now and before. The chairman needs to reckon with the fact a head of the time. Machar have to admit the hard reality of just returning home after complete good 3 years of exile with no heroic reception like that of Dr. John Garang De Maboir during CPA in Khartoum as was stated clearly by Kiir’s presidential spokesman just days ago and just today in reply to his requests on what he shouldn’t do while in Juba. Seriously Mr. Chairman needs to just discard his scheduled and imminent going to Juba had he to avoid an ordinary home return. The game couldn’t have been that interesting, wouldn’t you agree with me?
Remember what I have said in an article I posted earlier which I must quote here again and compare it with the sad reality of “the peace” that is going on in the country … “there is little hope for the August signed peace in South Sudan. Complications to its implementation will always meet us as we trail along its confusing paths. Jang Council of Elders designed it that way. All possible obstacles to the peace implementation have been masterfully calculated and will be employed by them one by one until everyone of us burns out and fuck it for a lack of better word (excuse my language). 28 states is one of those masterfully calculated blockages to the August signed peace. Sadly Machar has surrendered to Kiir’s 28 states already”.
IO is one of those Movement led on emotions and childlike trust by its members. The peace they are dancing themselves off to its beats is not genuine from the side of their counterpart. One needs no second guest to admit to the said fact. Kiir was reluctantly dragged into accepting to ink the peace 9 days later after the part of the agreement was signed and it was delivered to him in his own palace. This was not a weakness but strength from the part of Kiir; Machar looks at that as minus point from Kiir. On his reservation speech in front of world’s dignitaries and media, President Kiir slapped the peace he was going to signed in few minutes as “not a Bible nor Quran” and the world have to just swallow it as nothing big deal. When President Japar El-Nimary of the old Sudan first used the term during Addis Ababa agreement, his words became true. He later abolished the whole peace thing and he wasn’t held accountable for abolishing it. Likewise, Kiir has been adjusting and dictating all along the peace agreement and it is allowed him.
This peace agreement many are defending so hard could have been a setup machinery to end the rebellion in South Sudan! Possibilities towards that are high. If it is not, the world the IO rely on does not have the control over Kiir’s militia men that he had armed to the teeth. Paul Malong’s militia men are recruited with one objective in mind—our government is being eyed on by Machar and his Nuers’ white army. Considering the level of IO’s readiness should Machar insist to go to Juba as planned and then should Malong went on with his promise to see Machar over his dead body, can Machar’s forces make it? I don’t have to take us through Kiir’s military capability in close contrast to that of Machar’s. Does this worth being taken for granted? If it is the world that the IO is counting on as Machar alleged last week in a meeting with his supporters in Addis Ababa, the world do only react after everything is gone too late.
The peace Machar is following in Juba in less than a week from now does not have enough and credible grantees. Everyone who will go for it is putting his own life at great risk. They must pay for their own wages sooner or later. As to the poor South Sudanese who have suffered enough as a result of this senseless war in the country, this warning must be issued. The true peace has not come yet in the land. The true peace is that peace with no Kiir a killer and Machar a failure in it. The true peace is a peace that will not be implemented by individuals driven by their self-first motives and interests. This vassal and base treaty Machar has accepted upon himself will go down in records adding to the number of those weak treaties the world have known.
The question, what is IO’s plan B should things turn opposite in the peace that they have put all their eggs in is one of those million dollars’ worth questions the IOs’ themselves can answer or rather the leadership in particular. Ours as critics on where things are going are limited to hypotheses and analysis as we do daily on social media. It wouldn’t be fair from us to rule out by any certainty though that the leadership doesn’t have an exit strategy plan. Perhaps they will call the international community to their rescue should things turn violent again in Juba.
That President Kiir has an upper hand with all peace things verses the possibilities of going back to war should that happen is known. Those in denial of this are doing injustices to their own selves. Compare the unknown level of readiness of Kiir to Machar’s 3000 troops in Juba with their RVG 7s and a handful of PKMs that they took with them together with President Kiir’s gunships, tanks and other sophisticated military equipment they do not know of. I simply can’t see any matching here. That is for one. On another hand, there is this notion that this peace will get IO prepared should it collapse because they think they have their separate army, money and so forth. This is cheap and childish at best. The reality is that, they do not have separate army and separate government. The whole peace is made with Kiir the supreme in it. Machar is Vice President and everyone else is a part of that one unified government. Things to do with budget and all that come in holistic grant policies of South Sudan government with the knowledge and signature of President of the Republic Salva Kiir Mayardit.
The idea that the IO has their own money and government is premature. When coming to two separate armies, they are separate only as far as the 18 months period given for their organization and trainings is concern. In case this is not clear as yet, the idea of having cantonment areas for 18 months is simply to find ways to come up with one South Sudan Arm Forces after 18 months’ period are ended. In their cantonments areas, they are not going to be equipped or armed as people think. Yes they will be fed and kept busy with trainings and organizations. That is all.
As an informed person, I would accept this so called peace for what it is not for the advantages it promises as far as the preparation for another war is concern which is prevalent in many minds of IO supporters. The world is tired of more arms flow in South Sudan. Machar has just no chances of doing that (supplying his troops) under the Government of National Unity he is going to form with Kiir. If he cannot do it now where he owns a whole Movement, he will not do it in Juba after the formation of National Unity Government.
A doom prophet as I sound to many, the Movement in truth has minimal chances of making it through into those wishful dreams its members shallowly harbor in their minds when they fit under Kiir Mayar. IO has been force into surrendering to Kiir unknowingly. The safest option for Machar and his group is to accept the defeat. Kiir will not be hostile to them if they humble themselves. Otherwise an end to Machar’s political career in South Sudan service is winding up; should he attempt to resist submitting to Kiir, he will end fugitive for the rest of his life if he can escape Juba this second time.
For those like me who can never be satisfied with anything but Kiir’s imminent leaves in South Sudan helmet, the real struggle is just about to begin. The work is hard and the chances of making it are not there at the moment they seems; even the reality of how is going to form itself are just not in the minds as well. But since there is vision, since there is common agreement for a need to carry on with the struggle, its only a matter of time before a miracle can pull us out together. That hijacked Movement is gone now and it will go for good the moment they all reach Juba under Kiir. I am glad this chapter is winding out so that there will be room for others to start.
South Sudan without those ugly old political faces is better off. Those ugly faces have divided us and turned our nation into a nation of competing tribal interests. Machar’s 21 states and Kiir’s 28 states are the tribal interests these men are leaving behind for us. These are their legacies. If we don’t handle it very well, if we don’t stand together enough denouncing these tribal segregations created by them, South Sudan with its pervious composition will just be a history. Do we want South Sudan according to Kiir and Machar or the very country that we have voted for at independence?
I seriously need to know those I am sharing these readings of South Sudanese politics and future with. My invitation for an in-depth look of South Sudan politics is extended here. If you are a change seeker, we are together. We need to know ourselves now and not tomorrow. Let us get in touch for Salvation of South Sudan is underway. FRONTEERS FOR THE SALVATION OF SOUTH SUDAN….!!!
Buay Kandong Liem, one among Nasir Liberators in December 22, 2013; a discontented figure is reachable at phallikahbuay@gmail.com . Kandong is now in Ethiopia visiting his young family after a long field stay.
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