Riek Machar’s Arrival and Mix Economic Forecasting
By Kuach Loch Garang Deng, Calgary, Canada
April 17, 2016 (SSB) —- As full implementation of peace is about to be achieved as rebel leader and the last leg of rebel group is expected to reach Juba next week, hope is highly renewed that South Sudan will enjoy fruits of peace through economic improvement. Nevertheless, the global economic downturn remains the most challenging economic crisis for many nations in the World. However, as a new nation with less economic experts, and economic commentators, return of Vice Designated always dominates South Sudanese talk in every corners and online forums that the dollar’s exchange rates will drop dramatically in his arrival.
In fact, victims of the senseless war are made to believe that Machar is a hero who is coming to rescue them from economic hardship in reducing high rate of dollars in the black market. A wish and high hope that would fade away as soon as Riek Machar lands in Juba international and the dollar remain same or drop one day as usual and shot up high next day.
What many economic hit harder do not understand is the fact that this economic recession is not caused by the war in South Sudan alone but a global economic downturn that South Sudan cannot regain it over the night even if Riek Machar becomes a president that day. As a result, Machar and his rebel groups and their sympathizers should whisper to their supporters’ base to stop over crediting him with global economic crisis that he does not have solution over it. People need to know this economic hardship or recession that it is not linked to rate of dollar but there are many other factors involved.
One, South Sudan has mono-economics or single economic sector which is oil and it’s sold in cheap price not because the peace is absent in South Sudan but the oil crude itself is cheaper in the global market. Two, In addition, most South Sudanese salaries go out to neighbor nations for rents and tuitions and treatments as many big fishes have their families live lavishly outside the country.
Three, Moreover, South Sudan is a consumer society which means we import everything from other countries including a salt all these in hard currency. Therefore, these multiple imports and transfers weaken our economic even more. Four, Most importantly, Majority of South Sudanese are unemployed or underemployed and small percentage who are employed, their salaries cannot boost economic activity in short time since they make less. Worst still, the fact that many people have stopped from buying luxuries stuffs or importing them from other nations, make business activities in the South Sudan market even slower. Therefore, less economic activity is dwelling, caused less growth and the economic wouldn’t improve easily. Five, Nevertheless, few people who are still working are working harder than before just only to put the food on the table for feed their families .Therefore, if Machar has that a magic bullet to save South Sudan immediately, believe me or not many world leaders would run to South Sudan not to the World Bank to save their nations from economic downturn. These are clear facts out there but South Sudanese journalists, economic experts and SPLM-IG, are not doing enough to stop those who are misleading the public with false economic forecast that Riek Mahcar is a solution when is he not true. Maybe these daydreamers are given facts but since they make their minds, economic realities would be the best answer.
South Sudanese who are falsely projecting all these economic indicators are promoting Machar but that high expectation would fade away soon.
I know some people might have different opinions about the messiah in waiting but because of economic downturn, his blind supporters tripled among political hunters, business opportunitists and poor class who want to escape the hunger. In fact, Many people of different class are being misled that the economic situation will thrive as soon as Machar arrive and therefore; many good luck hunters are expected to rush to welcome Vice President Designated to show their loyalty but they should know that it would not magically give them a result they wanted. I wish I am wrong!
I wish South Sudan and people of South Sudan peaceful 2016 everlasting peace and stability.
Sincerely Yours,
Kuach Loch Garang Deng can be reached at lochdit2002@yahoo.ca
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