Why the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) will be a colossal failure
9 min readBy Kur John Aleu, Bor, Jonglei State
April 25, 2016 (SSB) — As per the Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS), the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) will be formed to run the country for 30 months till the general election in 2018. The TGoNU will comprise of the members of the three antagonistic SPLM factions (SPLM-government, SPLM-IO, SPLM-FDs) and other political parties. The three SPLM factions just found themselves in their respective camps by the virtue of the prevailing political circumstances in the wake of the December 2013 conflict.
The three SPLM factions just found themselves in their respective camps by the virtue of still being in government for Kiir’s camp and therefore one is obliged to depend his/her position, being out of government, detained immediately after the outbreak of the war and considers one’ self as a historical party leader or having held a senior position during the liberation struggle therefore must proof to the people of South Sudan and the world that they are better than Kiir and Riek; that is how the second FDs got their camp.
The third camp was spontaneously formed and was driven by two factors: Ngundeng’s spiritual mythology which put Riek in the position of a messiah to liberate them from what they called Dinka political dominancy of South Sudan. This has led to the spontaneous mobilization of the white army by another self-claimed spiritual leader in the name of Dak Kueth. The second factor was the greed for power and this was the hidden agenda for Riek Machar and other elites fired from lucrative cabinet ministerial positions in July 2013 who wanted to use their population to fight for them to come back to power.
For the non-Nuer elites in Riek’s camp, these are canny guys who are also power hungry but want to use Riek and the illiterate village boys who are easily deceived by politicians to fight on their behave. There were no ideological differences for the groupings as to how best to achieve prosperity, economic development, security and infrastructural development in a country that had been neglected since the independence of the then Sudan so as to meet the aspiration of millions South Sudanese who had sacrificed their lives and properties for this nation.
The politicians are merely on their knees to advance their looting sphere to enrich themselves with state resources/money for the establishment of rich and families dynasties that will be the pool of monopolistic leadership in their respective communities. It is nothing less than promoting self-egoism. This is evidenced by the fact that no single politician either from Kiir, Machar or FDs camps that has a family here in South Sudan. All their families rent in foreign countries spending millions of embezzled petro-dollars on rental/medical/tuition and clubbing while the children of poor attending to less privileged schools here at home. Their sole agenda is to groom their children for political and economic succession so as to advance their ruling dynasties. It is selfishness, greediness and political illiteracy beyond description.
It is never anywhere in the world where the very people who are supposed to be the champion of community empowerment, development and prosperity turn to be the destroyers. They say what they don’t do, know and even understand, they make decisions immaturely and without any objective and critical analysis and in fact they don’t have any vision for this country and therefore South Sudan under them will remind a failure.
Secondly, the spirit of egoism on one hand and participation in liberation and independence for South Sudan on the other, there is no chance of flexibility to put the nation first. This is a potential avenue for the failure of would be TGoNU because each of the SPLM faction is assuming a political score on false, unfounded or irrelevant theories.
For instant, Kiir’s faction is singing a song of being the only surviving founder who stood with the movement from the inception up to date and therefore has all the right to lead this country. What they forget is that being the founder doesn’t grant one a free ticket to loot, mismanaged and misgovern a country without any national agenda that will be the guiding star toward achieving nationhood where the rights, liberties and security of citizens as granted in the constitution. Ten years have passed but no single road constructed. The Juba teaching hospital is in a very awful state, no clean drinking water, insecurity everywhere even within our capital Juba. No electricity, no agriculture – which is supposed to be the engine of development. Sincerely speaking what miracles will happen in 30 months to expect any change more over with the same group he worked with for eight years up to 2013 when they split.
Unreasonably and shamelessly, Riek’s Faction is claiming the independency credit/legacy that he championed the call for the conduct of Referendum in the then Southern Sudan in his 1997 Khartoum Agreement which Sudan’s President Bashir didn’t honor. The notion that Dr. John Garang borrowed the idea for the conduct of the CPA-mandated referendum from Riek Machar and therefore fit to be the Midwife of the now Republic of South Sudan which was created as a result of 2011 Referendum is a stupid analysis to say the least. If 1997 Agreement was valid then South Sudan would have been independent since that time not in 2011. If having said an idea before others deserved a credit then 1972 Addis Ababa agreement which secured Southern autonomous though abrogated later should be claiming the credit as well. The popular 1947 Juba Conference where all Southern leaders called for independence should be branded the champion of independence.
The Anyanya II of the likes of Gai Tut, Akuot Atem, Pagan Amum, Paul Malong Awan to mention but few which was fighting for Southern independence should also claim the legacy. Therefore an idea not realized or a plan not achieved remains a dream and thus meaningless and therefore someone in his true mind can’t claim a credit for a dream not come true. Riek is trying to forge his way into the history of liberation but his 1991 Nasir defection from the then united SPLM under Dr. Garang when it was at the point of victory put a permanent scar in his face – something difficult to remove. Making unreasonable will take centuries to forget in the minds and hearts of many South Sudanese.
Therefore Riek’s claim for being the champion of independence is absurd and therefore he should opt for new political dispensation to address the current challenges of nation building than to waste time deceiving himself and uninformed youth about his failed dream for having championed the call for independence when three other powerful movements had preceded him.
The third group are the hypocrites who called themselves SPLM historical leaders or Former Detainees. These are bunch of thieves loosely brought together by self-claimed popularity which was proven wrong during 2010 election as most of them lost positions to even the known devil NCP (National Congress Party of President Bashir), not to mention those who lost to SPLM-DC which is a Southern party. The like of John Luk, Oyai Deng Ajak and the rest miserably failed to win the trust of their own constituencies. The likes of Dr. Majak, Pagan Amum and the rest didn’t even try to contest for the fear that they will be humiliated. Their assertion that they are historical leaders of the SPLM is wrong because none of them is senior than President Kiir, James Wani, Kuol Manyang, Awet Akoot and Late Lual Ding Wuol (Baba Africa) in the SPLM hierarchy and that is why their claim is nothing but just a self-praising for what is unreal.
If it is because of liberation struggle then the first people to be credited are the dead Heroes/Heroines, wounded heroes/heroines and the entire South Sudanese citizens who have contributed in war fields and other ways until referendum time but not just one single or group of commanding officer(s) who were even stationed 25KM or more from the battle field just to give orders to junior officers and combat troops who felt the heat and do the actual fight to own the liberation credit and use it as a tool to loot the country, shame on them. What of the widows whose husbands died in the front lines? What of the Orphans whose fathers died in the front lines? What of the wounded heroes whose parts of their bodies are cut off? What of the civil populations who were contributing food for the soldiers in the front lines? Who are you to think that if you are not a minister then there is no South Sudan?
It is high time the FDs stop fooling themselves and use this second chance of being in the government and especially in the key ministerial post of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation to clean themselves and the image of the country which they have stained badly.
With all the above areas of differences in the SPLM factions it will remain a nightmare to expect any positive outcome from the TGoNU
Thirdly, with election due in 2018 they will most likely still fight over the unified Chairmanship of the SPLM—who will be the party flag bearer as the IOs and FDs are reluctant to break away and declare their respective factions as political parties because there is an illusion that SPLM is what South Sudanese want.
We want services, not names.
With the above analysis this TGoNU will be a litmus test for the political maturity within the SPLM party and within the wider political spectrum of South Sudan. Method of unity government to settle political conflicts have never work in more civilized countries than South Sudan like in Kenya after 2007 election crisis, Zimbabwe and other Asian countries leave alone South Sudan were politicians are greedy, selfish and don’t care about the welfare of the people they claim to be ruling.
So with the above scenario there is therefore a possibility of 2013 crisis repeating in 2018. The TGoNU will be a colossal failure like the government under Kiir, Riek and the FDs between 2005 and 2013, and then they will resort to war like they did in December 2013. As Nhial Bol Aken once said, when these leaders agree to form the TGoNU, they will loot our national resources, and then when they disagree over looting spree, they will resort to killing us. In agreement or disagreement, we the citizens are the losers.
The author, Kur John Aleu, graduated with a civil engineer degree from Ndejje University in Uganda and is currently working in South Sudan.
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