10, 21 or 28 states for South Sudan: Genesis and the way forward
By Franz Mandela, Juba, South Sudan
May 7, 2016 (SSB) —- On the 4th of this month, the Special Representative of the Secretary General in South Sudan, Ellen Loej, held a press conference in which she announced the non-recognition of 28 states by the UN/UNMISS. Earlier, before the formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNU), the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission, troika countries and IGAD denounced order number 36/2015 creating 28 states as violation of recently signed peace agreement. The genesis of the 28 states and SPLA-IO proposed 21 states starts with the popular demand in Equatoria for federal system of governance. The idea lacked consensus and support among the communities and political leadership of Greater Upper Nile and Bar el Ghazal in particular. To them, it was Kokora 2 in the making.
After the events of Dec, 2013 and breakout of the civil war, new political calculations emerged. First, on December, 2014 Dr. Riek Machar established his 21 states based on the old colonial districts. The merits and demerits of this order are not to be elaborated upon on this article as the order was rendered defunct with the signing of the peace agreement. But it is worth mentioning the two fold reasoning behind the order. First, to gain support among the equatorians. Second to create states in oil producing areas with majority ethnic mix that supports his political and economic agenda with Adar and Lich states as examples. It can therefore be deduced that the SPLM-IO proposed 21 states is not based on desire of service delivery but rather a pure Machiavellian move.
On the other hand, feeling outmaneuvered and under political pressure from Dr.Riek proposed 21 states, President Salva Kiir turned to the newly created tribal outfit; the self-appointed Jieng Council of Elders popularly known as JCE for advice.
With agitation from the JCE, the president issued his establishment order number 36 creating 28 states. The JCE strategy was three fold aimed at hitting three birds with one stone. First, to consolidate oil producing areas under states dominated by Jieng/Dinka communities considered loyal. Second, just like Dr. Riek, please the equatorians. Third, create ethnically homogenous states in Upper Nile, Jongeli and Unity where Jieng/Dinka communities are considered minorities.
What is clear, the proposed 28 states is a political decision imposed from above, using top down approach, without public consultations. It violates and complicates the implementation of the Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan especially chapter 1 article 15 regarding “Structure and Composition of State Governments in Conflict-Affected States”.
Furthermore, the 28 states were established with only tribal criteria without consideration of economic viability and population size. With petrodollars exhausted by war and economic mismanagement plus persistent depressed international oil prices, it’s hard to see how the government will finance the states.
Internationally, as South Sudan is not a political and economic island, the violation of provisions of the peace agreement send wrong signals. Our peace and development partners still have a major role to play in our country rebuilding efforts. It would be imprudent to antagonize them at this critical juncture. Furthermore, violations to the peace agreement send wrong signals to potential investors whose Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is much needed.
In as much as the issue of the 28 states poses as a stumbling block to the implementation of the peace agreement, two remedies are available to the TGNU.
One is to amend the peace agreement to incorporate 28 or desired number of states. This is made possible through Chapter 8 article 4 of the agreement which states that agreement may be amended by the parties, with at least two-thirds of the members of the Council of Ministers, and, at least two-thirds of the voting members of the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission followed by ratification by the Transitional National Legislature.
The second more difficult but desirable solution is to scrap the creation of more states until after the 2018 general elections. By making the number of states an election issue, renders legitimacy to incoming elected government to implement the people’s wishes with regards to the number of states.
The people of South Sudan have a right to demand for more or less states but it should be done in a democratic and transparent manner based on scientific approaches, facts and data as well as through wide and through consultations.
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