Dr. Riek Machar should consider leaving politics for a while
By John Adoor Deng, Australia
July 27, 2016 (SSB) — Having read through the lines, in and out, about the current conflict in South Sudan, I have come to the conclusion that at least the best way out of this serious situation is for Dr. Riek Machar Teny to sacrificed his political ambition and temporarily quit politics altogether. This may sound odd to many hardliners on both sides of the political Arena especially the IO supporters and presumably the FDs whose lifeline depends on IO victory.
The following paragraphs shall illustrate why I came to this conclusion. Indeed after thorough debates in my mind and after having seen and read the trends on which the conflict continues to turns each day in South Sudan. The following elucidations helped inform my inherent conclusions:
Firstly, the war is unwinnable in all aspects especially on the side of SPLA/M-IO and to some extent on the SPLA/M- IG as well. It is a baseless war, aims to achieve nothing but to notoriously kills, maim civilians, destroy properties and robbed generations once again from gaining literacy and early childhood education. Previously, we have lost generations into extreme illiteracy in civil wars; the war kills education opportunities, destroy infrastructure and germinate obnoxious hatred and mistrusts among the elite themselves.
Recent wars have taught us to believe this, former enemies never in totality live in complete harmony. For instance, the atrocities of 1991 conflict are being sung and used as intimidations against those believed to have engineered them. Although the bygone were gone through reconciliations, it is still the case in South Sudan.
Secondly in the African contexts, conflicts are not won between brothers; the only winning point for each of protagonists is reconciliation. The war between Dinka and Nuer plus their acquaintances will only in my view be won by reconciliations and not in effect through the barrel of guns as some generals may want to believe. The artilleries and bombings usage against each group in this conflict only serve to depopulate our country and leave unredeemed scars on our future generations.
Thirdly, the nature of contemporary Nuer people is rigorously characterized by defections and none stick ability on the perceived collective goal. This is true on how Dr. Riek Machar in most of his founded rebellions, suffered rapid re-defections. The data is replete with his followers changing allegiances at each of the critical time of his rebellion. For example, in the 1991 rebellions engineered by Dr Lam Akol and led by Dr Riek Machar, many officers from the Nuer tribe deserted their man to the mercy of SPLA/SPLM led by Dr John Garang De Mabior but were so kind to fully forgive him, and embrace him as his brother through true reconciliation.
History has repeated itself in the 2013 crisis, although many analysts believed that there wasn’t a planned coup at all but instead a mismanaged mutiny in the presidential guards unit. Dr. Machar for the second time found himself exposed to mount another rebellion, which he has indeed led since 2013 to Aug 2016, ended with IGAD brokered Agreement what later became a short-lived and dishonoured agreement. Again, for the third time, in July 2016, Dr. Machar has found himself exiled from the capital, Juba.
Not a month ago, his close associate Hon Taban Deng Gai (his close relative) has taken up his position in a bloodless coup although some people are calling it a survival strategy by barricaded ministers at the wrath of roaring SPLA/M-IG. Nevertheless, it true that Machar appointed ministers in the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNU) have turned against him with the view that it is business as usual without Dr. Machar.
The contemporary acquired spirit of none shameless notion of re-defection referred to early has fallen on Hon Taban Deng Gai and Ambassador Ezekiel Lol Garkuoth, who were until recent days, were the very men at Dr. Machar‘s left hand (Machar is left handed).
Fourthly, Dr. Machar forces may not at this stage, win this third conflict given the soundings realities; i.e. the government forces have considerable numbers and are well resourced with the backup from Uganda People Defence Force (UPDF). He is likely to fight three enemies; SPLA-IG, SPLA-IO-Juba and external force in the form of UPDF. Thus for his own safety and for the safety of remaining loyal Nuer members, he must quit politics temporarily as a matter of a long time strategy.
This pull back in my view may help spare innocent lives of Nuer people who might if this war continues, be killed, bombed and displace. Ironically, the trust based on International Bodies (AU, IGADD, and UN) is certainly not a guarantee for Dr. Machar’s survival and his factions. The Rwanda case is a good example of the profound failure of International Community.
Therefore, I believe that a decision to rescue this conflict to come to an end once and for all rests with Machar relinquishing his quest for power in South Sudan. Although it is his democratic right, the prevailing situation in our young nation makes it fervently difficult to apply conventional realities. The Dinka people who rarely change allegiances have at this point rallied around President Kiir, whether through the influence of the recent known political notorious group referred to as Jieng Council of Elders (JCE) or through tribal bonds.
It is hard at this juncture and in the close future to think of taking leadership in opposition to the Dinka governing elites (this may sound tribal but that are the facts on the surface). It may also sound like a giving up or surrender position but in essence, it is the best option out of the mess. Dr. Machar has grown enemies both within IO Juba faction, FDs and obvious SPLA Juba who really wants him buried. The Taban’s faction may be more dangerous to Dr. Machar’s survival more than SPLA-IG.
There may be a plan of a close proximity assassination through filtering in the IO-Bush. Thus, there is a high possibility for the resumption of Nuer to Nuer conflict as it has been for years. Finally, sometimes when rams fight, they pull back to gain momentums; consolidate power and later on apply the power.
To give Dr. Riek Machar benefit of the doubt, he appeared to have learned his lessons from the past; he too is seen as a leader who can take the nation forward in terms of developments. He is fairer in power distribution as illustrated in the allocation of his 10 ministries. All regions of South Sudan were well equitably represented in his IO part of the government, unlike president Salva who in most of his appointments appreciate seeing his giant community equitably represented first plus pockets of other communities.
Significance contrast may be drawn between these two leaders. However, the circumstance as I had alluded to in previous paragraphs dictate Dr. Machar to defer his quest for leadership until when the dust settled and that there are peace and tranquillity in the country.
Mr. John Adoor Deng is the author of the book entitle: Politics of Ethnicity and Governance in South Sudan: Understanding the Complexity of the World’s Newest Country. He is a student studying a Doctor of Philosophy at Torren University of Australia (TUA). He can be reached by dengjohn780@gmail.com
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