The continuing political and military brinkmanship in South Sudan
By David Mayen Ayarbior, Juba, South Sudan
July 31, 2016 (SSB) —- The quick succession of momentous events in South Sudan’s political stage has literary dumbfounded every keen observer of the country’s affairs. Whether you are an insider, outsider or mere observer, no one could say with any level of certainty what the future holds for the country. It now depends on reactions and counter reactions of different stakeholders, including regional and international bodies. Such an uncertain state of affairs has prompted foreign embassies to continue evacuating their nationals while citizens are on a journey of unprecedented exodus to neighboring countries.
The current high stakes for the very existence of our country as a stable polity are surely not imaginary and could not be exaggerated. On the ground, the peace agreement which was negotiated for so long is at risk of swiftly dying and failing to live up to its ultimate goal and projected benefit of peace to the people. Unfortunately, for the people, counting the cost of destruction in terms of mass displacement, destruction of remaining social infrastructure and lives may still have to be further postponed for a while.
As we browse through the internet social media, local newspapers and listen to analyses on FM radios, it is clear that only people inside ‘those boardrooms’ might know for sure what they are doing, the rest must wait and see. In such an environment conspiracy theories have thrived. Every theorist is having an interpretation about the fighting at J1, those two days of Armageddon in Juba, the split in the IO and a new 1st VP, Riek’s whereabouts and response on El-Jazeera TV on July 27, 2016 and Turkish Anadolu Agency two days later.
Amid the uncertainty emerged a new 1st Vice President who is supposed to have a positive influence on the country’s state of affairs. The First Vice President of the Republic, H.E. General Taban Deng Gai, no doubt a prominent revolutionary, is now at the center of domestic, regional, and world attention. For one who should fill the shoes of Dr. Riek Machar Teny around whose persona the TGoNU was virtually formed, the attention is warranted. Everybody, especially neutrals who just want peace wish good luck for a man on such an unenviable mission.
His first expected step in that mission is to consolidate internal (IO) affairs, before turning attention to regional and international ones. Those numerous and multiplying ‘Thomases’ who have confidently aired doubts about his command-and-control credentials have termed the whole affair that brought the man to the helm as a ‘hotel coup’- i.e. a castle built in the air. Such characterization of a tested veteran politician and his mission is both sarcastic and provocative. It is kind of the ‘until further notice’ type of challenge such leadership positions generate for new comers.
No one has said that his requisite consolidation of considerable political control of Party followership might not prove an uphill task. But it has even started with suspended recognition by outsiders, if they matter – well, of course they do. Apart from government associates and sympathizers who see it legal, arguments as to which article(s) of ARCISS (the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan) validated his nomination and appointment have been put across, not least by Dr. Riek and associates.
Regionally, Khartoum is scheduled to host a meeting of JEMEC Partners who include Sudan. To some extent, their resolution will help clarify the way forward. Surely, the main focus would be on maintaining a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities in the country until a political solution is negotiated and reached. Another political solution, that is. And in that regard, H.E. Taban suggested asylum for one ambitious Dr. Riek until elections are held, which the latter might find so uninviting.
Internationally, the 1st VP is scheduled to lead South Sudan’s delegation to the 74th UN General Assembly in New York in October 2016. No podium could ever be bigger and more suitable for him to showcase the prudence underpinning why he is the right man in the right time at the right place. And more importantly, in the right country. Ceteris paribus (Latin for all things constant), it would be there that H.E. the 1st Vice President of the Republic of South Sudan would make or break his chance to properly adjust on the diplomatic side of his statesmanship credentials. It is there that believers of philosopher kings’ rights and Greek conspiracy converge every October.
However, things are not constant in the real world, especially back home. Hence, God forbid, all of the above could be bundled or whizzed into a wider and more complex security equation if Dr. Riek successfully sets base in the jungles of Equatoria in addition to his strong presence in his home region of Upper Nile. For economic and other perception reasons, the current level of discontent among the youth in Greater Equatoria might play in Dr. Riek’s hands in terms of recruitment potentials.
It is that potential which prompted the son of great John Garang to claim that his boss rejected the chance to get lifted out from his perilous positions around Juba. Unless it is a born again Dr. Riek Machar whom we had lately seen visiting churches before ‘running away,’ his history and survival credentials, propensity to destroy, and militaristic politics might all combine to give weight to his threat of “storming Juba-” even if he fails to hit that target.
As brinkmanship continues in earnest, the most optimistic of unarmed citizens cannot help but to pray for peace. It (peace) has become the most uttered word in the country for some obvious reasons which obviously are not so obvious to some influential senior citizens; those who have self-assigned far much greater value to their citizenship rights. But for the newest country in the world, that value of urgency inherent in the word peace is often diluted, if not outright bombed. The country decided to take the long road towards learning that there is no such thing as a win-lose equation in civil war.
The writer is a Lawyer, Political Economist, and International Security expert. He is author of House of War (Civil War and State Failure in Africa). He can be reached at mayen.ayarbior@gmail.com
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