3 things Gen Taban should do before Riek Machar reappears in Addis Abba or Nairobi
By David Aoloch Bion, Juba, South Sudan
August 1, 2016 (SSB) — There is much celebration of disappearing of former First Vice President Riek Machar Teny from Juba . There is also much celebration about the nomination of Gen Taban Deng Gai as the Chairman and Commander in Chief of SPLM /SPLA IO and his appointment to replace Riek Machar as the First Vice President according to the Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ACRSS).
The celebrations would be short- lived unless otherwise Gen Taban does 3 precautionary measures to avoid Riek disrupting the whole peaceful political process, which is widely believed to move the country forward from political turmoil
Gen Taban Deng should not celebrate until October 2016 because Riek Machar is working around the clock to find his way out of the bushes around four states of Yei River, Amadi, Maridi and Ghudue. On the other hand , Riek’s right hand men , who are James Dak , his spokesman , Mabior Garang , Minister of Water , Peter Aduok , Minster for Hiher Education are doing everything possible to get him out of the bush.
These men are coordinating with Ethiopian and Kenya governments on how to get Riek out of the bush, if Riek succeeds by finding his way out of the quagmire and reappears in Addis Abba or Nairobi, he will do two things as quick as possible in order to be reinstated as the First Vice President.
- . Diplomatic Campaign, he will launch a diplomatic campaign so that he is recognized as legitimate First Vice President, as we have already heard him describing the appointment of Gen Taban as illegitimate, though someone impersonate him and speak on his behalf , we consider that as him talking . From that diplomatic lobby, the international community and IGAD would put pressure on the government to concede where necessary, from there, Riek might come back and the appointment of Taban will be null and void and the dogfight will resume again in J1.
- Riek Machar will conduct limited military operation in the country in order to give him leverage to negotiate or give him a bargaining power in order to renegotiate his way in to power, there are no military offensive now because there is leadership vacuum among Riek’s few loyal soldiers but as soon as Riek reaches Nairobi or Addis Abba, that gap would be filled.
From the strategic point of view, for Gen Taban to avoid being nullified at the end, he should encounter plan by doing the following 3 things
- Gen Taban should Control Pagak. Pagak is strategic military point because; it is GHQs of SPLA IO. It is supply route of SPLA IO ammunitions. When Taban controls this point and even if Riek arrives in Addis Abba, it will be difficult for him to launch his limited, unwinnable third war.
- Gen Taban should convince the Trioka – US, UK and Norway because the decision made in these countries affect South Sudan seriously. Anyone supported by Trioka can’t lose completely, he always get the loser’s cup. Mr. Taban should persuade Trioka to support him and stop their support of Riek
- Gen Taban should convince 70% of Nuer that war is not the solution. It is time for SPLA IO soldiers to spend with their families not in trenches. All in all , Gen Taban should close all windows of opportunity for Riek Machar before he comes out of the bush, otherwise things will not be fine if he at all come ..
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