PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd – South Sudan

"We the willing, led by the unknowing, are doing the impossible for the ungrateful. We have done so much, with so little, for so long, we are now qualified to do anything, with nothing" By Konstantin Josef Jireček, a Czech historian, diplomat and slavist.

The Principles of Tribocracy (Part 6)

South Sudan's coat of arms, in which the eagle symbolizes vision, strength, resilience and majesty, and the shield and spear the people’s resolve to protect the sovereignty of their republic and work hard to feed it.

Past Governments: The Interplay Between Power Politics and Ethnicity in the Republic of South Sudan under a Tribocratic Paradigm (Part 2)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

March 6, 2017 (SSB) — They say that a picture is worth a thousand words. And indeed, the following illustrative figures, based on past governments of President Salva Kiir Mayaardit, paint a telling picture of the dynamic interplay between power politics and ethnicity in the Republic of South Sudan under a Tribocratic Paradigm.

This is a summary of tribocratic analysis of President Kiir’s past government according to the prevailing political forces–four political caucuses, thirteen political constituencies and one hundred and thirty-five political sections–in South Sudan, based on The Principles of Tribocracy—Part 5

The 1st Government of President Kiir: The First Post-CPA Government of President Kiir formed in October 2005, after the promulgation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), inclusive of subsequent reshufflings, both with the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) in Juba and the Government of National Unity (GoNU) in Khartoum.

Table 1: Tribocratic Analysis of the 1st Government of President Kiir

 (a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka1017.86%19.86%-2.00%
Bor Dinka916.07%4.50%11.57%
Agaar Dinka58.93%7.93%1.00%
Padang Dinka47.14%5.88%1.26%
EquatorianWestern47.14%7.48%-0.34%
Central916.07%13.36%2.71%
Eastern00.00%10.99%-10.99%
NuerLou Nuer47.14%5.13%2.01%
Liech Nuer23.57%5.87%-2.30%
Jikany Nuer00.00%5.29%-5.29%
Phow Nuer23.57%3.02%0.55%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities58.93%6.12%2.81%
Western Minorities23.57%4.53%-0.96%
Total56100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus
CodePolitical CaucusNumber in the government% of the government% of national populationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka2850.00%38.18%11.82%
2Equatorian1323.21%31.82%-8.61%
3Nuer814.29%19.33%-5.04%
4Minority Group712.50%10.65%1.85%
Total56100.00%100.00%0.02%

The 2nd Government of President Kiir: The Second Government of President Salva Kiir (the reshuffling of the first, post-CPA Government), which was dissolved on 13 July 2011, immediately after independence.

Table 2: Tribocratic Analysis of the 2nd Government of President Kiir

(a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka614.63%19.86%-5.23%
Bor Dinka37.32%4.50%2.82%
Agaar Dinka512.20%7.93%4.27%
Padang Dinka37.32%5.88%1.44%
EquatorianWestern37.32%7.48%-0.16%
Central49.76%13.36%-3.60%
Eastern37.32%10.99%-3.67%
NuerLou Nuer24.88%5.13%-0.25%
Liech Nuer49.76%5.87%3.89%
Jikany Nuer24.88%5.29%-0.41%
Phow Nuer12.44%3.02%-0.58%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities24.88%6.12%-1.24%
Western Minorities37.32%4.53%2.79%
Total41100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus    
CodePolitical CaucusNumber in the government% of the government% of the National PopulationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka1741.46%38.18%3.28%
2Equatorian1024.39%31.82%-7.43%
3Nuer921.95%19.33%2.62%
4Minority Group512.20%10.65%1.55%
Total41100.00%100.00%0.02%

The 3rd Government of President Kiir: The Third Government of President Kiir, appointed immediately after Independence, in August 2011.

Table 3: Tribocratic Analysis of the 3rd Government of President Kiir

(a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka1219.05%19.86%-0.81%
Bor Dinka46.35%4.50%1.85%
Agaar Dinka69.52%7.93%1.59%
Padang Dinka57.94%5.88%2.06%
EquatorianWestern46.35%7.48%-1.13%
Central812.70%13.36%-0.66%
Eastern46.35%10.99%-4.64%
NuerLou Nuer23.17%5.13%-1.96%
Liech Nuer23.17%5.87%-2.70%
Jikany Nuer23.17%5.29%-2.12%
Phow Nuer34.76%3.02%1.74%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities69.52%6.12%3.40%
Western Minorities57.94%4.53%3.41%
Total63100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus    
CodePolitical CaucusNumber in the government% of the government% of the National PopulationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka2742.86%38.18%4.68%
2Equatorian1625.40%31.82%-6.42%
3Nuer914.29%19.33%-5.04%
4Minority Group1117.46%10.65%6.81%
Total63100.00%100.00%0.02%

The 4th Government of President Kiir: The Fourth Government of President Kiir (reshuffling of the 3rdGovernment), which was dissolved on 23rd July 2013, along with the Vice President Riek Machar.

Table 4: Tribocratic Analysis of the 4th Government of President Kiir

 (a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka1118.03%19.86%-1.83%
Bor Dinka46.56%4.50%2.06%
Agaar Dinka69.84%7.93%1.91%
Padang Dinka58.20%5.88%2.32%
EquatorianWestern46.56%7.48%-0.92%
Central813.11%13.36%-0.25%
Eastern46.56%10.99%-4.43%
NuerLou Nuer23.28%5.13%-1.85%
Liech Nuer23.28%5.87%-2.59%
Jikany Nuer23.28%5.29%-2.01%
Phow Nuer34.92%3.02%1.90%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities69.84%6.12%3.72%
Western Minorities46.56%4.53%2.03%
Total61100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus    
CodePolitical CaucusNumber in the government% of the government% of the National PopulationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka2642.62%38.18%4.44%
2Equatorian1626.23%31.82%-5.59%
3Nuer914.75%19.33%-4.58%
4Minority Group1016.39%10.65%5.74%
Total61100.00%100.00%0.02%

The 5th Government of President Kiir: The Fifth Government of President Kiir, which was appointed in August 2013, after the dismissal of Vice President Dr. Riek Machar

Table 5: Tribocratic Analysis of the 5th Government of President Kiir

 (a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka717.50%19.86%-2.36%
Bor Dinka37.50%4.50%3.00%
Agaar Dinka37.50%7.93%-0.43%
Padang Dinka410.00%5.88%4.12%
EquatorianWestern37.50%7.48%0.02%
Central512.50%13.36%-0.86%
Eastern37.50%10.99%-3.49%
NuerLou Nuer37.50%5.13%2.37%
Liech Nuer25.00%5.87%-0.87%
Jikany Nuer25.00%5.29%-0.29%
Phow Nuer00.00%3.02%-3.02%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities25.00%6.12%-1.12%
Western Minorities37.50%4.53%2.97%
Total40100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus    
CodePolitical CaucusNumber in the government% of the government% of the National PopulationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka1742.50%38.18%4.32%
2Equatorian1127.50%31.82%-4.32%
3Nuer717.50%19.33%-1.83%
4Minority Group512.50%10.65%1.85%
Total40100.00%100.00%0.02%

The 6th Government of President Kiir: The Sixth Government of President Kiir, a reshuffling of the fifth government, which was dissolved before the formation of the KIIR-RIEK TGONU in 2016, after the signing of the Compromised Peace Agreement in Addis Ababa, popularly known as the Agreement for the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS), in August 2015.

Table 6: Tribocratic Analysis of the 6th Government of President Kiir

(a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka1026.32%19.86%6.46%
Bor Dinka25.26%4.50%0.76%
Agaar Dinka410.53%7.93%2.60%
Padang Dinka410.53%5.88%4.65%
EquatorianWestern410.53%7.48%3.05%
Central410.53%13.36%-2.83%
Eastern12.63%10.99%-8.36%
NuerLou Nuer25.26%5.13%0.13%
Liech Nuer25.26%5.87%-0.61%
Jikany Nuer12.63%5.29%-2.66%
Phow Nuer00.00%3.02%-3.02%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities25.26%6.12%-0.86%
Western Minorities25.26%4.53%0.73%
Total38100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus    
CodePolitical CaucusNumber in the government% of the government% of the National PopulationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka2052.63%38.18%14.45%
2Equatorian923.68%31.82%-8.14%
3Nuer513.16%19.33%-6.17%
4Minority Group410.53%10.65%-0.12%
Total38100.00%100.00%0.02%

The 7th Government of President Kiir: The KIIR-RIEK’s Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU), the Promulgation of the Compromised Peace Agreement, established after the signing of the Agreement for the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) in Addis Ababa, August 2015.

Table 7: Tribocratic Analysis of the 7th Government of President Kiir

 (a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka919.57%19.86%-0.29%
Bor Dinka36.52%4.50%2.02%
Agaar Dinka24.35%7.93%-3.58%
Padang Dinka36.52%5.88%0.64%
EquatorianWestern48.70%7.48%1.22%
Central48.70%13.36%-4.66%
Eastern510.87%10.99%-0.12%
NuerLou Nuer36.52%5.13%1.39%
Liech Nuer36.52%5.87%0.65%
Jikany Nuer12.17%5.29%-3.12%
Phow Nuer12.17%3.02%-0.85%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities48.70%6.12%2.58%
Western Minorities48.70%4.53%4.17%
Total46100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus    
CodePolitical CaucusNumber in the government% of the government% of the National PopulationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka1736.96%38.18%-1.22%
2Equatorian1328.26%31.82%-3.56%
3Nuer817.39%19.33%-1.94%
4Minority Group817.39%10.65%6.74%
Total46100.00%100.00%0.02%

The 8th Government of President Kiir: The KIIR-TABAN TGONU, established after, and as a result of, the July 2016 fighting in Juba that led to the dissolution of the KIIR-RIEK TGONU, established after the signing of the Agreement for the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) in Addis Ababa, August 2015.

Table 8: Tribocratic Analysis of the 8th Government of President Kiir

 (a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka818.18%19.86%-1.68%
Bor Dinka24.55%4.50%0.05%
Agaar Dinka24.55%7.93%-3.38%
Padang Dinka36.82%5.88%0.94%
EquatorianWestern511.36%7.48%3.88%
Central49.09%13.36%-4.27%
Eastern49.09%10.99%-1.90%
NuerLou Nuer49.09%5.13%3.96%
Liech Nuer36.82%5.87%0.95%
Jikany Nuer24.55%5.29%-0.74%
Phow Nuer12.27%3.02%-0.75%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities49.09%6.12%2.97%
Western Minorities24.55%4.53%0.02%
Total44100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus    
CodePolitical CaucusNumber in the government% of the government% of the National PopulationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka1534.09%38.18%-4.09%
2Equatorian1329.55%31.82%-2.27%
3Nuer1022.73%19.33%3.40%
4Minority Group613.64%10.65%2.99%
Total44100.00%100.00%0.02%

Table 9: Summary of the Tribocratic Analysis of all President Kiir’s Past Governments, from October 2005 to 2016

 (a) Political Constituencies
Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyNumber in the government% of the government% of the national populationDominating/Marginalized
DinkaRek Dinka7318.77%19.86%-1.09%
Bor Dinka307.71%4.50%3.21%
Agaar Dinka338.48%7.93%0.55%
Padang Dinka317.97%5.88%2.09%
EquatorianWestern317.97%7.48%0.49%
Central4611.83%13.36%-1.53%
Eastern246.17%10.99%-4.82%
NuerLou Nuer225.66%5.13%0.53%
Liech Nuer205.14%5.87%-0.73%
Jikany Nuer123.08%5.29%-2.21%
Phow Nuer112.83%3.02%-0.19%
Minority GroupEastern Minorities317.97%6.12%1.85%
Western Minorities256.43%4.53%1.90%
Total389100.00%99.96%0.04%
(b) Political Caucus    
CodePolitical ForcesNumber in the government% of the government% of the National PopulationDominating/Marginalized
1Dinka16742.93%38.18%4.75%
2Equatorian10125.96%31.82%-5.86%
3Nuer6516.71%19.33%-2.62%
4Minority Group5614.40%10.65%3.75%
Total389100.00%100.00%0.02%

Table 10: Summary of Tribocratic Analysis of President Kiir’s Past Governments According to the Prevailing Political Forces in South Sudan

S/NoPolitical Force1st gov’t2nd gov’t3rd gov’t4th gov’t5th gov’t6th gov’t7th gov’t8th gov’tNumber in the gov’t% of the gov’t% of the national populationDominating, Marginalized
  Political Caucus 
1Dinka281727261720171516742.93%38.18%4.75%
2Equatoria13101616119131310125.96%31.82%-5.86%
3Nuer8999758106516.71%19.33%-2.62%
4Minority Group75111054865614.40%10.65%3.75%
 SUB-TOTAL5641636140384644389100.00%99.98%0.02%
  Political Constituencies 
1Rek Dinka1061211710987318.77%19.86%-1.09%
2Bor Dinka93443232307.71%4.50%3.21%
3Agaar Dinka55663422338.48%7.93%0.55%
4Padang Dinka43554433317.97%5.88%2.09%
5Western Equatorian43443445317.97%7.48%0.49%
6Central Equatorian948854444611.83%13.36%-1.53%
7Eastern Equatorian03443154246.17%10.99%-4.82%
8Lou Nuer42223234225.66%5.13%0.53%
9Liech Nuer24222233205.14%5.87%-0.73%
10Jikany Nuer02222112123.08%5.29%-2.21%
11Phow Nuer21330011112.83%3.02%-0.19%
12Eastern Minorities52662244317.97%6.12%1.85%
13Western Minorities23543242256.43%4.53%1.90%
 SUB-TOTAL5641636140384644389100.00%99.96%0.04%
  Political Sections 
1Twic Dinka (Jonglei)52330010143.60%1.03%2.57%
2Nyarweng Dinka1000000010.26%0.35%-0.09%
3Bor Dinka31113222153.86%2.68%1.18%
4Agaar Dinka24332211184.63%3.88%0.75%
5Chiech Dinka0022110061.54%0.82%0.72%
6Atuot Dinka2111011182.06%1.25%0.81%
7Awan-Chan Dinka (Gogrial)1111111182.06%0.73%1.33%
8Gok Dinka1000000010.26%1.43%-1.17%
9Abiem Dinka (Aweil)0111011161.54%3.75%-2.21%
10Thony Dinka (Tonj)1111000041.03%0.18%0.85%
11Aguok Dinka (Gogrial)0011111161.54%0.84%0.70%
12Apuk Dinka (Gogrial)0022111182.06%1.25%0.81%
13Jok Dinka (Abyei)2111111192.31%0.64%1.67%
14Twic Mayardit Dinka2022111092.31%2.48%-0.17%
15Ajak Dinka (Aweil)2000021161.54%0.89%0.65%
16Paweny Dinka (Pigi)1111000041.03%0.37%0.66%
17Noi Dinka (Tonj)2011101171.80%0.29%1.51%
18Akook Dinka (Tonj)0110111161.54%0.20%1.34%
19Nyiel Dinka (Melut)1111111182.06%0.25%1.81%
20Kuach Dinka (Gogrial)1111010051.29%1.03%0.26%
21Malual Dinka (Aweil)1111111182.06%4.08%-2.02%
22Panaruu Dinka00222211102.57%0.99%1.58%
23Dok Nuer1311001182.06%0.64%1.42%
24Western Jikany Nuer1000001130.77%0.39%0.38%
25Gon Nuer (Lou)21112111102.57%3.48%-0.91%
26Moor Nuer (Lou)21111123123.08%1.65%1.43%
27Laak Nuer (Fangak)1111000041.03%0.68%0.35%
28Thiang Nuer (Fangak)1000000010.26%0.65%-0.39%
29Gajook Nuer (Jikany)02222101102.57%3.57%-1.00%
30Jagei Nuer0000111030.77%0.91%-0.14%
31Bul Nuer0100000120.51%1.46%-0.95%
32Nyuong Nuer0011110041.03%0.61%0.42%
33Gawaar Nuer0022001161.54%1.69%-0.15%
34Gajaak Nuer (Jikany)0000001120.51%1.72%-1.21%
35Bari42442222225.66%3.23%2.43%
36Zande32331223194.88%4.79%0.09%
37Otuho02221121112.83%1.21%1.62%
38Moru1111111182.06%1.54%0.52%
39Baka0000111141.03%0.33%0.70%
40Madi0100100020.51%1.03%-0.52%
41Pojullu22331111143.60%1.89%1.71%
42Kuku2000211171.80%2.38%-0.58%
43Lokoya1000000010.26%0.79%-0.53%
44Kakwa0011000020.51%1.07%-0.56%
45Acholi0022000041.03%1.03%0.00%
46Taposa0000101241.03%3.21%-2.18%
47Buya0000001120.51%0.57%-0.06%
48Didinga0000001010.26%0.63%-0.37%
49Shilluk52441133235.91%2.98%2.93%
50Fertit21322121143.60%2.49%1.11%
51Luo02221121112.83%2.04%0.79%
52Murle0011111161.54%1.78%-0.24%
53Maban0011000020.51%0.55%-0.04%
 OVERALL TOTAL5641636140384644389100.00%100.00%0.00%

Table 11: Summary of Tribocratic Analysis of President Kiir’s Past Governments According to the New 32, and the Old 10, States of South Sudan

S/NoState1st gov’t2nd gov’t3rd gov’t4th gov’t5th gov’t6th gov’t7th gov’t8th gov’tNumber in the gov’t% of the gov’t% of the national populationDominating, Marginalized
  The Greater Upper Nile Region (13 states) under 32 states 
1Jonglei93443232307.71%4.50%3.21%
2Fangak state21330011112.83%3.02%-0.19%
3Bieh State21112111102.57%3.48%-0.91%
4Akobo State21111123123.08%1.65%1.43%
5Maiwut State0000001120.51%1.72%-1.21%
6Latjor State02222101102.57%3.57%-1.00%
7Boma State0011111161.54%2.59%-1.05%
8Central Upper Nile42441131205.14%2.32%2.82%
9Northern Upper Nile11221111102.57%2.81%-0.24%
10Fashoda State2111000271.80%2.43%-0.63%
11Ruweng State00222211102.57%1.20%1.37%
12Northern Liech State1000112271.80%3.97%-2.17%
13Southern Liech State14221111133.34%1.90%1.44%
 Sub-total: The Greater Upper Nile Region241623231512171814838.05%35.16%2.89%
  The Greater Bahr el Ghazal Region (10 states) under 32 states 
14Gogrial State22553433276.94%4.20%2.74%
15Twic State41332221184.63%3.12%1.51%
16Tonj State32322122174.37%4.46%-0.09%
17Gok State1000000010.26%1.43%-1.17%
18Western Lakes State24332211184.63%4%0.26%
19Eastern Lakes State21331211143.60%2.56%1.04%
20Aweil East State0111011161.54%3.75%-2.21%
21Lol State1000111151.29%4.23%-2.94%
22Aweil State2111021192.31%1.40%0.91%
23Wau State23543242256.43%3.38%3.05%
 Sub-total: The Greater Bahr el Ghazal Region191524221417161314035.99%32.90%3.09%
  The Greater Equatoria Region (9 states) under 32 states 
24Jubek State52442222235.91%4.46%1.45%
25Terekeka State0000000000.00%1.75%-1.75%
26Yei River State42443222235.91%7.15%-1.24%
27Tambura State21331223174.37%0.79%3.58%
28Gbudwe State1100000020.51%3.61%-3.10%
29Amadi State1111111182.06%1.58%0.48%
30Maridi State0000111141.03%1.50%-0.47%
31Imatong State03442121174.37%5.59%-1.22%
32Kapoeta State0000103371.80%5.40%-3.60%
 Sub-total: The Greater Equatoria Region13101616119131310125.96%31.83%-5.87%
 Overall Total: South Sudan5641636140384644389100%100%0.11%
  The Old Ten States of the Republic of South Sudan (10 states) 
1Jonglei167111175887318.77%16.45%2.32%
2Upper Nile658843564511.57%11.68%-0.11%
3Unity24555544348.74%7.09%1.65%
4Lakes55552322297.46%8.43%-0.97%
5Warrap95111088766416%12%4.67%
6Northern Bahr el Ghazal32220333184.63%8.73%-4.10%
7Western Bahr el Ghazal23543242256%4.04%2.39%
8Western Equatoria43443445317.97%10.97%-3.00%
9Central Equatoria948854444612%13.36%-1.53%
10Eastern Equatoria03443154246.17%7.50%-1.33%
 SUB-TOTAL5641636140384644389100.00%100.03%-0.03%

Table 12: Summary of Tribocratic Analysis of President Kiir’s Past Governments According to the (Old) 79 Counties of South Sudan

S/NoCOUNTY1st gov’t2nd gov’t3rd gov’t4th gov’t5th gov’t6th gov’t7th gov’t8th gov’tNumber in the gov’t% of the gov’t% of the national populationDominating, Marginalized
1Twic East52330010143.60%1.03%2.57%
2Duk1000000010.26%0.79%-0.53%
3Bor31113222153.86%2.68%1.18%
4Pigi1111000041.03%1.19%-0.16%
5Akobo21111123123.08%1.65%1.43%
6Ayod0022001161.54%1.69%-0.15%
7Fangak2111000051.29%1.33%-0.04%
8Nyirol0000000000.00%1.32%-1.32%
9Pibor0011111161.54%1.79%-0.25%
10Uror21112111102.57%2.16%0.41%
11Pochalla0000000000.00%0.80%-0.80%
12Baliet0000000000.00%0.58%-0.58%
13Kodok/Fashoda2111000051.29%0.44%0.85%
14Longochuk0000000000.00%0.76%-0.76%
15Nasir/Luakpiny0111110161.54%2.54%-1.00%
16Maban0011000020.51%0.55%-0.04%
17Maiwut0000001120.51%0.96%-0.45%
18Malakal0000000000.00%1.53%-1.53%
19Manyo0000000220.51%0.46%0.05%
20Melut1111111182.06%0.59%1.47%
21Panyikang31331131164.11%0.55%3.56%
22Renk0000000000.00%1.67%-1.67%
23Ulang0111100041.03%1.03%0.00%
24Abiemnhom0000000000.00%0.21%-0.21%
25Panriang00222211102.57%0.99%1.58%
26Guit1000001130.77%0.39%0.38%
27Koch0000111030.77%0.91%-0.14%
28Leer1311001182.06%0.64%1.42%
29Mayendit0100000010.26%0.65%-0.39%
30Mayom0000000110.26%1.46%-1.20%
31Panyijar0011110041.03%0.61%0.42%
32Rubkona0000000000.00%1.21%-1.21%
33Awerial0000000000.00%0.57%-0.57%
34Cueibet1000000010.26%1.43%-1.17%
35Rumbek Center2111001171.80%1.86%-0.06%
36Rumbek East03222200112.83%1.49%1.34%
37Rumbek North0000000000.00%0.53%-0.53%
38Yirol East0022110061.54%0.82%0.72%
39Yirol West2111011182.06%1.25%0.81%
40Wulu0000000000.00%0.49%-0.49%
41Abyei2111111192.31%0.64%1.67%
42Gogrial East0022111182.06%1.25%0.81%
43Gogrial West22332322194.88%2.95%1.93%
44Tonj East0110111161.54%1.41%0.13%
45Tonj North2011101171.80%2.00%-0.20%
46Tonj South1111000041.03%1.05%-0.02%
47Twic2022111092.31%2.48%-0.17%
48Aweil Center0111000030.77%0.51%0.26%
49Aweil East0111011161.54%3.75%-2.21%
50Aweil North1000111151.29%1.56%-0.27%
51Aweil South2000021161.54%0.89%0.65%
52Aweil West0000000000.00%2.01%-2.01%
53Jur River02221121112.83%1.55%1.28%
54Raja0000000000.00%0.66%-0.66%
55Wau21322121143.60%1.83%1.77%
56Ezo0000000000.00%0.98%-0.98%
57Ibba0000000000.00%0.51%-0.51%
58Maridi0000111141.03%0.99%0.04%
59Mundri East1111000041.03%0.59%0.44%
60Mundri West0000111141.03%0.41%0.62%
61Mvolo0000000000.00%0.58%-0.58%
62Nagero0000000000.00%0.12%-0.12%
63Nzara0000000000.00%0.79%-0.79%
64Tambura21331223174.37%0.67%3.70%
65Yambio1100000020.51%1.84%-1.33%
66Juba52442222235.91%4.46%1.45%
67Kajo-Keji2000211171.80%2.38%-0.58%
68Lainya22331111143.60%1.08%2.52%
69Morobo0000000000.00%1.25%-1.25%
70Terekeka0000000000.00%1.75%-1.75%
71Yei0011000020.51%2.44%-1.93%
72Budi0000002130.77%1.20%-0.43%
73Ikotos0000000000.00%1.03%-1.03%
74Kapoeta East0000000000.00%1.99%-1.99%
75Kapoeta North0000101241.03%1.25%-0.22%
76Kapoeta South0000000000.00%0.96%-0.96%
77Lopa0000000000.00%1.29%-1.29%
78Magwi0122100061.54%2.06%-0.52%
79Torit02221121112.83%1.21%1.62%
 TOTAL5641636140384644389100.00%99.97%0.03%

Table 13: Summary of Tribocratic Analysis of President Kiir’s Past Governments According to the (Old) 10 States of South Sudan

S/NoCOUNTY1st gov’t2nd gov’t3rd gov’t4th gov’t5th gov’t6th gov’t7th gov’t8th gov’tNumber in the gov’t% of the gov’t% of the national populationDominating, Marginalized
1Twic East52330010143.60%1.03%2.57%
2Duk1000000010.26%0.79%-0.53%
3Bor31113222153.86%2.68%1.18%
4Pigi1111000041.03%1.19%-0.16%
5Akobo21111123123.08%1.65%1.43%
6Ayod0022001161.54%1.69%-0.15%
7Fangak2111000051.29%1.33%-0.04%
8Nyirol0000000000.00%1.32%-1.32%
9Pibor0011111161.54%1.79%-0.25%
10Uror21112111102.57%2.16%0.41%
11Pochalla0000000000.00%0.80%-0.80%
 Jonglei: Total167111175887318.77%16.43%2.34%
12Baliet0000000000.00%0.58%-0.58%
13Kodok/Fashoda2111000051.29%0.44%0.85%
14Longochuk0000000000.00%0.76%-0.76%
15Nasir/Luakpiny0111110161.54%2.54%-1.00%
16Maban0011000020.51%0.55%-0.04%
17Maiwut0000001120.51%0.96%-0.45%
18Malakal0000000000.00%2%-1.53%
19Manyo0000000220.51%0.46%0.05%
20Melut1111111182.06%0.59%1.47%
21Panyikang31331131164.11%0.55%3.56%
22Renk0000000000.00%1.67%-1.67%
23Ulang0111100041.03%1.03%0.00%
 Upper Nile: Total658843564512%12%0%
24Abiemnhom0000000000.00%0.21%-0.21%
25Panriang00222211102.57%0.99%1.58%
26Guit1000001130.77%0.39%0.38%
27Koch0000111030.77%0.91%-0.14%
28Leer1311001182.06%0.64%1.42%
29Mayendit0100000010.26%0.65%-0.39%
30Mayom0000000110.26%1.46%-1.20%
31Panyijar0011110041.03%0.61%0.42%
32Rubkona0000000000.00%1.21%-1.21%
 Unity: Total24444444308%7%1%
33Awerial0000000000.00%0.57%-0.57%
34Cueibet1000000010.26%1.43%-1.17%
35Rumbek Center2111001171.80%1.86%-0.06%
36Rumbek East03222200112.83%1.49%1.34%
37Rumbek North0000000000.00%0.53%-0.53%
38Yirol East0022110061.54%0.82%0.72%
39Yirol West2111011182.06%1.25%0.81%
40Wulu0000000000.00%0.49%-0.49%
 Lakes: Total55663422338%8%0%
41Abyei2111111192.31%0.64%1.67%
42Gogrial East0022111182.06%1.25%0.81%
43Gogrial West22332322194.88%2.95%1.93%
44Tonj East0110111161.54%1.41%0.13%
45Tonj North2011101171.80%2.00%-0.20%
46Tonj South1111000041.03%1.05%-0.02%
47Twic2022111092.31%2.48%-0.17%
 Warrap: Total95111077766216%12%4%
48Aweil Center0111000030.77%0.51%0.26%
49Aweil East0111011161.54%3.75%-2.21%
50Aweil North1000111151.29%1.56%-0.27%
51Aweil South2000021161.54%0.89%0.65%
52Aweil West0000000000.00%2.01%-2.01%
 NBEG: Total32221433205%9%-4%
53Jur River02221121112.83%1.55%1.28%
54Raja0000000000.00%0.66%-0.66%
55Wau21322121143.60%1.83%1.77%
 WEB: Total23543242256%4%2%
56Ezo0000000000.00%0.98%-0.98%
57Ibba0000000000.00%0.51%-0.51%
58Maridi0000111141.03%0.99%0.04%
59Mundri East1111000041.03%0.59%0.44%
60Mundri West0000111141.03%0.41%0.62%
61Mvolo0000000000.00%0.58%-0.58%
62Nagero0000000000.00%0.12%-0.12%
63Nzara0000000000.00%0.79%-0.79%
64Tambura21331223174.37%0.67%3.70%
65Yambio1100000020.51%1.84%-1.33%
 WES: Total43443445318%7%0%
66Juba52442222235.91%4.46%1.45%
67Kajo-Keji2000211171.80%2.38%-0.58%
68Lainya22331111143.60%1.08%2.52%
69Morobo0000000000.00%1.25%-1.25%
70Terekeka0000000000.00%1.75%-1.75%
71Yei0011000020.51%2.44%-1.93%
 CES: Total948854444612%13%-2%
72Budi0000002130.77%1.20%-0.43%
73Ikotos0000000000.00%1.03%-1.03%
74Kapoeta East0000000000.00%1.99%-1.99%
75Kapoeta North0000101241.03%1.25%-0.22%
76Kapoeta South0000000000.00%0.96%-0.96%
77Lopa0000000000.00%1.29%-1.29%
78Magwi0122100061.54%2.06%-0.52%
79Torit02221121112.83%1.21%1.62%
 EES: Total03443154246%11%-5%
 TOTAL5641636140384644389100.00%99.97%0.03%

Table 14: Summary of Tribocratic Analysis of President Kiir’s Past Governments According to the New 32 States of South Sudan

S/NoCOUNTY1st gov’t2nd gov’t3rd gov’t4th gov’t5th gov’t6th gov’t7th gov’t8th gov’tNumber in the gov’t% of the gov’t% of the national populationDominating, Marginalized
 Twic East52330010143.60%1.03%2.57%
 Duk1000000010.26%0.79%-0.53%
 Bor31113222153.86%2.68%1.18%
1Jonglei state93443232307.71%4.50%3.21%
              
2Akobo state21111123123.08%1.65%1.43%
              
 Ayod0022001161.55%1.69%-0.14%
 Fangak2111000051.29%1.33%-0.04%
3Fangak state21330011112.84%3.02%-0.18%
              
 Nyirol0000000000.00%1.32%-1.32%
 Uror21112111102.57%2.16%0.41%
4Bieh state21112111102.57%3.48%-0.91%
              
 Pibor0011111161.55%1.79%-0.24%
 Pochalla0000000000.00%0.80%-0.80%
5Boma state0011111161.55%2.59%-1.04%
              
 Baliet0000000000.00%0.58%-0.58%
 Pigi1111000041.03%1.19%-0.16%
 Panyikang31331131164.12%0.55%3.57%
6Central Upper Nile State42441131205.15%2.32%2.83%
              
 Longochuk0000000000.00%0.76%-0.76%
 Maiwut0000001120.52%0.96%-0.44%
7Maiwut State0000001120.52%1.72%-1.20%
              
 Ulang0111100041.03%1.03%0.00%
 Nasir/Luakpiny0111110161.55%2.54%-0.99%
8Latjor State02222101102.58%3.57%-0.99%
              
 Malakal0000000000.00%1.53%-1.53%
 Manyo0000000220.51%0.46%0.05%
 Kodok/Fashoda2111000051.29%0.44%0.85%
9Fashoda State2111000271.80%2.43%-0.63%
              
 Melut1111111182.06%0.59%1.47%
 Maban0011000020.52%0.55%-0.03%
 Renk0000000000.00%1.67%-1.67%
10Northern Upper Nile State11221111102.57%2.81%-0.24%
              
 Abiemnhom0000000000.00%0.21%-0.21%
 Panriang00222211102.57%0.99%1.58%
11Ruweng State00222211102.57%1.20%1.37%
              
 Guit1000001130.77%0.39%0.38%
 Koch0000111030.77%0.91%-0.14%
 Mayom0000000110.26%1.46%-1.20%
 Rubkona0000000000.00%1.21%-1.21%
12Northern Liech State1000112271.80%3.97%-2.17%
              
 Panyijar0011110041.03%0.61%0.42%
 Leer1311001182.06%0.64%1.42%
 Mayendit0100000010.26%0.65%-0.39%
13Southern Liech State14221111133.34%1.90%1.44%
              
14Gok State1000000010.26%1.43%-1.17%
              
 Rumbek Center2111001171.80%1.86%-0.06%
 Rumbek East03222200112.83%1.49%1.34%
 Rumbek North0000000000.00%0.53%-0.53%
 Wulu0000000000.00%0.49%-0.49%
15Western Lakes State24332211184.63%4.37%0.26%
              
 Yirol East0022110061.54%0.82%0.72%
 Yirol West2111011182.06%1.25%0.81%
 Awerial0000000000.00%0.49%-0.49%
16Eastern Lakes State21331211143.60%2.56%1.04%
              
 Gogrial East0022111182.06%1.25%0.81%
 Gogrial West22332322194.88%2.95%1.93%
17Gogrial State22553433276.94%4.20%2.74%
              
 Tonj East0110111161.54%1.41%0.13%
 Tonj North2011101171.80%2.00%-0.20%
 Tonj South1111000041.03%1.05%-0.02%
18Tonj State32322122174.37%4.46%-0.09%
              
 Twic2022111092.31%2.48%-0.17%
 Abyei2111111192.32%0.64%1.68%
19Twic State41332221184.63%3.12%1.51%
              
 Aweil Center0111000030.77%0.51%0.26%
 Aweil South2000021161.29%0.89%0.40%
20Aweil State2111021192.06%1.40%0.66%
              
21Aweil East State0111011161.54%3.75%-2.21%
              
 Aweil North1000111151.29%1.56%-0.27%
 Raja0000000000.00%0.66%-0.66%
 Aweil West0000000000.00%2.01%-2.01%
22Lol State1000111151.29%4.23%-2.94%
              
 Jur River02221121112.83%1.55%1.28%
 Wau21322121143.60%1.83%1.77%
23Wau State23543242256.43%3.38%3.05%
              
 Ibba0000000000.00%0.51%-0.51%
 Maridi0000111141.03%0.99%0.04%
24Maridi State0000111141.03%1.50%-0.47%
              
 Mundri East1111000041.03%0.59%0.44%
 Mundri West0000111141.03%0.41%0.62%
 Mvolo0000000000.00%0.58%-0.58%
25Amadi State1111111182.06%1.58%0.48%
              
 Yambio1100000020.52%1.84%-1.32%
 Ezo0000000000.00%0.98%-0.98%
 Nzara0000000000.00%0.79%-0.79%
26Gbudwe State1100000020.52%3.61%-3.09%
              
 Tambura21331223174.37%0.67%3.70%
 Nagero0000000000.00%0.12%-0.12%
27Tambura State21331223174.37%0.79%3.58%
              
28Jubek State52442222235.91%4.46%1.45%
              
 Kajo-Keji2000211171.80%2.38%-0.58%
 Lainya22331111143.60%1.08%2.52%
 Morobo0000000000.00%1.25%-1.25%
 Yei0011000020.52%2.44%-1.92%
29Yei River State42443222235.91%7.15%-1.24%
              
30Terekeka State0000000000.00%1.75%-1.75%
              
 Budi0000002130.77%1.20%-0.43%
 Kapoeta East0000000000.00%1.99%-1.99%
 Kapoeta North0000101241.03%1.25%-0.22%
 Kapoeta South0000000000.00%0.96%-0.96%
31Kapoeta State0000103371.80%5.40%-3.60%
              
 Ikotos0000000000.00%1.03%-1.03%
 Lopa0000000000.00%1.29%-1.29%
 Magwi0122100061.54%2.06%-0.52%
 Torit02221121112.83%1.21%1.62%
32Imatong State03442121174.37%5.59%-1.22%
              
 TOTAL5641636140384644389100%100%0%

Table 15: Power-Mapping of Ethnicity in the Republic of South Sudan under a Tribocratic Paradigm

Political CaucusPolitical ConstituencyPolitical SectionCountyPopulation 2008 CensusNational Percentage
DinkaBor DinkaTwicTwic East85,3491.03%
BorBoor221,1062.68%
Nyarweng, Hol,Duk65,5880.79%
Padang DinkaPaweny, Rut, Thoi, LuachPigi99,0681.19%
AloorAbiemnhom17,0120.21%
PanaruuPanriang82,4430.99%
Abiliang, DongjolRenk137,7511.67%
Ageer, Nyiel,Melut49,2420.59%
Ngok-Lual YakBaliet48,0100.58%
Jook (Ngok Abyei)Abyei52,8830.64%
Agaar DinkaAliabAwerial47,0410.57%
GokCueibet117,7551.43%
Agaar (Kwei, Ruup)Rumbek Center153,5501.86%
Agaar (Aliamtooch)Rumbek East122,8321.49%
Agaar (Pakam)Rumbek North43,4100.53%
ChiechYirol East67,4020.82%
Atuot (Reel)Yirol West103,1901.25%
Rek DinkaApuk-Giir, Jur Man-AngerGogrial East103,2831.25%
Awan-Chan, Awan-Mou, Aguok, Kuach-AyokGogrial West243,9212.95%
Thiik, Luach-Jang, Luach-Koth, Akook, Jal-Wou,Tonj East116,1221.41%
Konggoor, Noi, Atok, Abiem, Abuok, Nyang, Leer, Awan-Parek, Lou-Ariik, Lou-Paher, Apuk-PadochTonj North165,2222.00%
Yaar, Thony, Apuk-Jurwiir, Muok,Tonj South86,5921.05%
Twic MayaarditTwic204,9052.48%
Malual-GiernyangAweil Center41,8270.51%
AbiemAweil East309,9213.75%
Malual-GiernyangAweil North129,1271.56%
Ajak, Buoncuai, Kongdeer,Aweil South73,8060.89%
Malual-GiernyangAweil West166,2172.01%
Equatorian 
 
 
 
 
 
Western Equatorians
ZandeEzo80,8610.98%
Zande, MunduIbba41,8690.51%
Moru, Avukaya, Mundu, BakaMaridi82,4610.99%
Moru,Mundri East48,3180.59%
Moru, Moro KodoMundri West33,9750.41%
Jur-Bhel, MoruMvolo48,1340.58%
Zande, BalandaNagero10,0770.12%
ZandeNzara65,7120.79%
Zande, BalandaTambura55,3650.67%
ZandeYambio152,2571.84%
Central EquatoriansBari, Nyangwara, LokoyaJuba368,4364.46%
KukuKajo-Keji196,3872.38%
Pajulu, Makaraka (Adio)Lainya89,3151.08%
Kakwa, Keliko, LubwaraMorobo103,6031.25%
MundariTerekeka144,3731.75%
Kakwa, Pajulu, Avukaya,Yei201,4432.44%
Eastern EquatoriansDidinga, Buya (Larim)Budi99,2341.20%
Lango, Logir, Dongotano, ImatongIkotos84,6491.03%
Taposa, NyangatomKapoeta East163,9971.99%
TaposaKapoeta North103,0841.25%
Taposa, TidKapoeta South79,4700.96%
Lopit, Pari, TenetLopa106,1611.29%
Madi, AcholiMagwi169,8262.06%
Otuho, Horiok, Lolubo, IfotoTorit99,7401.21%
Nuer
 
 
Lou Nuer
Gon (Chieng-Dak)Wuror178,5192.16%
Gon (Gatbaal)Nyirol108,6741.32%
MoorAkobo136,2101.65%
Phow NuerGawaarAyod139,2821.69%
Laak, ThiangFangak110,1301.33%
 
Jikany Nuer
Gajaak (Chieng-Wau)Maiwut79,4620.96%
Gajaak (Thiang)Longochuk63,1660.76%
Gajook (Chieng-Lang)Ulang85,0441.03%
Gajook (Chieng-Nyilieth), GaguangNasir/Luakpiny210,0022.54%
Liech NuerBulMayom120,7151.46%
JangeiKoch74,8630.91%
DokLeer53,0220.64%
HakMayendit53,7830.65%
Western JikanyGuit33,0040.39%
Nyuong, AdorPanyijar50,7230.61%
LeekRubkona100,2361.21%
Minority GroupEastern MinoritiesShilluk (Chollo)Kodok/Fashoda36,5180.44%
Shilluk (Chollo)Malakal126,4831.53%
Shilluk (Chollo)Manyo38,0100.46%
Shilluk (Chollo)Panyikang45,4270.55%
Burun (Chai), Berta, Koma, Uduk (Gomus),Maban45,2380.55%
Murle, Jie, Kachipo (Suri or Ngalam)Pibor148,4751.79%
AnyuakPochalla66,2010.80%
Western MinoritiesJur-Bhel, Bongo, Jur-ModoWulu40,5500.49%
Jur-Chol, Balanda-BorJur River127,7711.55%
Banda, Sere, Aja, Binga, Feroghe (Kaligi), Indri, Kara, Mangayat (Bugwa), Ngulgule, Shatt (Thuri), Yulu, Woro (Orlo)Raja54,3400.66%
Balanda-Bagari, Balanda-Boor, Balanda-Bviri, Bongo, Gollo, Jur-chol, Bai, Ndogo,Wau151,3201.83%
TOTALPolitical ConstituencyPolitical SectionCounty8,260,490100%

 

PaanLuel Wël, the managing editor of PaanLuel Wel: South Sudanese Bloggers (SSB), graduated with a double major in Economics and Philosophy from The George Washington University, Washington D.C, USA. He is the author of Who Killed Dr. John Garang, the editor of the essential speeches and writings of the late SPLM/A leader, Dr. John Garang, published as The Genius of Dr. John Garang, vol. 1-3, as well as a co-editor (with Simon Yel Yel) of President Salva Kiir’s speeches before and after independence: Salva Kiir Mayaardit: The Joshua of South SudanYou can reach him through his email: paanluel2011@gmail.com or Facebook page

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