River Nile Dispute: What is South Sudan’s Position and Share in the Management of the Nile Waters?
By Perinho Garang, Wau, South Sudan
Thursday, June 25, 2020 (PW) — The River Nile is the longest River in the world. It is 30 million years old according to archaeological evidences. It’s originates from Burundi and ends in Mediterranean Sea. The Nile passes through Burundi, Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt. The real source of the Nile is Ruvyironza river of Burundi. Blue Nile is another source of the River Nile originating from Ethiopia. The Nile is 4,132 Miles. The Nile Basin covers an area of 3.4 million square.
The River Nile has been the source of civilization and livelihood for the Nile Basin Countries, especially Egypt for centuries. The significances of the Nile water is huge to Egyptian people and Egypt can exercise whatever in its disposal to protect that expensive interest. Regarding the stereotype of Egypt being awarded the privilege of having control over the Nile water by the British,during the condominium Rule, Egypt is expressing its concern over the construction of Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia.
While, Ethiopia in the other hand have alternated mandatory to construct any project of its will as an independent country. Ethiopia needs to have economic viability for millions of its poor people who are in dire need of national’s welfare. Therefore, Nile becomes the source of conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt believe in its utmost indignation of a lion share over the Nile Water undisputedly based on the agreement of (1929), where Egypt was given minimum of 43 Km3 of the shares and Sudan with 4Km3 while other Nile Basin countries were neglected by the colonists during the agreement.
Not far away from preceding week, I had a glance at an article in one of those Facebook pages in which it was indicated that South Sudan have had a covenant with Egypt behind the scenes to give access to Egypt to have its forces on South Sudan soil with an intention of fighting Ethiopia using our land. Of course, I have discribe it as a mere propaganda, because it is not logical for South Sudan to allow its land to be use for confrontation between the two African giants. South Sudan dominates, and is dominated by, the White Nile. It is the area of confluence of most of the tributaries of the White Nile.
Indeed, about 90% of south Sudan falls in the Nile Basin, and about 20% of the Nile Basin falls in south Sudan: that is, about one third of the size of the Nile Basin in all the Sudan before secession of the south. About 28% of the flow of the Nile River, representing about 23 billion cubic metres (BCM) of the total flow of the Nile of 84 BCM measured at Aswan, crosses south Sudan into Sudan and eventually into Egypt. It should also be added that close to 50% of thewaters of the White Nile are lost to evaporation and seepage in the three large swamps of South Sudan, namely the Sudd (the Arabic word for barrier) of Bahr el Jebel and Bahr el Zaraf, the Bahr el Ghazal swamps, and the Soba swamps.
Plans for conservation of about 20 BCM of these waters by the digging of canals to convey such waters past the swamps to the main river have been under study for some time (Collins 2002, p. 196). The Jonglei Canal, as discussed later, was supposed to be the first of such projects. The importance of the White Nile to south Sudan is also manifested in the fact that the three largest and most important cities in south Sudan – Juba, Wau and Malakal – are situated on the river or one of its main tributaries. After exiting Lake Victoria in Uganda, and passing through Lake Kyoga and Lake Albert, the Albert Nile enters south Sudan at Nimule, where it is called Bahr el Jebel.
The city of Juba, the capital of southe Sudan, is located next to this river. After passing through the city of Bor, the river spreads into the large swamps of the Sudd, and branches into Bahr el Jebel and Bahr el Zaraf, and is joined by a number of tributaries flowing from the west and the southwest. The River Bahr el Arab originates in the border areas between the Sudan and the Central African Republic and flows eastward. It is fed by a number of tributaries including the Lol, Yei, Jur, Tonj and Naam rivers. The city of Wau, the capital of Western Bahr el Ghazal state, is situated on the Jur River. The Jur and Bahr el Arab merge to form Bahr el Ghazal, and after joining Bahr el Jebel at Lake No, the river is called the White Nile.
The River Bahr el Zaraf, which branches off Bahr el Jebel, joins the White Nile a few kilometres after Lake No. The White Nile then flows eastward to the city of Malakal, the capital of Upper Nile State, where it is joined by the Sobat River. The White Nile contributes about 11.5 BCM, or about 14%, of the total flow of the Nile River of 84 BCM. The emergence of South Sudan as an independent state raises the number of Nile riparian countries to 11. Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya share Lake Victoria where the White Nile originates as the Victoria Nile. The highlands of Burundi and Rwanda are the origins of the Kagera River, which is the major river flowing into Lake Victoria.
The Democratic Republic of Congo shares the Semliki River, which flows into Lake Albert (one of the sources of the White Nile), as well as Lake Albert itself, with Uganda. As discussed earlier,the White Nile consolidates itself in South Sudan. Eritrea shares portions of the Setit River, which is a tributary of the Atbara River, with Ethiopia, where the Blue Nile and almost all of its tributaries originate. Sudan and Egypt are the lowest downstream riparian states. Thus, 11 states share the Nile River with varying contribution, uses and stakes. The stakes and interests of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia are classified as very high; those of Uganda as high; those of Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda as moderate; and those of Eritrea and the Democratic Republic of Congo as low (Waterbury 2002).
Because of the size of the White Nile in south Sudan, the heavy water losses at the swamps there, and the possibility of conservation of a good part of such water, the stakes of South Sudan can be classified as very high, almost at par with Egypt, Ethiopia and the Sudan. water resources have been listed in the Southern Sudan ReferendumAct as one of the pending issues between the two states. Consequently, south Sudan is now demanding a share in the Nile waters allocated to the Sudan under the 1959Agreement. The issue might have been easier to negotiate and resolve before the referendum when the two states were still one country. This is because negotiations between two states are generally more difficult than between two parts of the same state.
While the six-month transitional period between the referendum vote and the establishment of South Sudan as a separate state will provide some time to negotiate these issues, they are complex and will likely require more time to finalize. Moreover, it is more likely that negotiations on water resources could be expanded to include projects for conserving the waters of theswamps of south Sudan, and may extend to the grazing and water rights of the border communities in the two countries. The demand of south Sudan for a part of the share of the Sudan’s Nile waters under the 1959 Agreement may seem easier to accommodate given the fact that Sudan has not been able to use more than 14 to 15 BCM of its share of 18.5 BCM under the 1959 Agreement.
However, this situation may be complicated by other new factors. Secession will result in the loss to the Sudan of 50% of the oil of southern Sudan, as stipulated in the CPA. Thus, the government of Sudan plans to pay more attention to agriculture as a focal point of its national economic strategy. This in turn will mean the need for more waters than Sudan is currently using. Sudan has large irrigable lands that have hitherto not been developed, and it has recently revived the four-decade-old slogan of Sudan being the breadbasket of the Arab world. Following completion of the Merowe Dam on the Nile River in Sudan, the government of Sudan has started implementing a project for increasing the height of the Roseiris Dam.
The government has also started the leasing of large tracts of land to foreign investors and other countries for the growing of food crops (International Food Policy Research Institute 2009). On the other hand, south Sudan is claiming a share of the Nile waters allotted to the Sudan to meet the needs of its agricultural projects that need rehabilitation as discussed earlier, and its existing and planned projects, as well as the growing needs of the returning south Sudanese. Work on the Bedden Dam on Bahr el Jebel, south of Juba, is already underway. This would mean that the competing demands of the two countries may not be easy to meet with the current allocation to the Sudan of 18.5 BCM.
The factors enumerated under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses regarding utilization of shared watercourses should provide helpful guidance to the parties in deciding how to share the 18.5 BCM.. Such factors would include, inter alia, the current and planned uses Sudan on the one hand, and the expected future uses of south Sudan; the amount of Nile waters crossing from south Sudan into Sudan and Egypt; as well as the heavy rains in south Sudan as an alternative source of water for south Sudan. Negotiations may also bring up the issue of the waters lost in the swamps of the south Sudan and the need to complete the Jonglei Canal to augment the flow of the White Nile, and provide more water for sharing.
The fact that southern Sudan is not part of the Blue Nile that provides the bulk of the Nile waters is another factor. Thus, the negotiations on the reallocation of the 18.5 BCM allotted to the Sudan under the 1959 Agreement are not expected to be easy. As now tension raise between Ethiopia and Egypt over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissancess Dam, Both Egypt and Ethiopia have played tangible roles during South Sudan struggle against Khartoum based regime and we shouldn’t drop their assistants into junkyard. Human life rotates around interests and that is the main nucleus of international relations, but some interests revolve around brother/sisterhood.
Besides, Ethiopia as direct neighbor of South Sudan doesn’t want South Sudan to be turned against it by the Egypt and vice Versa. Thus, South Sudan should be flexible enough in playing its cards not to be a victim of the two wrangling over the water. South Sudan should not take side. It should either abstain or initiate mediation between the two in settling their disputes peacefully using diplomacy. In this scenario, South Sudan finds itself in an hoax of decoys from both countries.
Each of the two needs South to be siding with. Although South Sudan didn’t start its own projects over Nile water, Egypt needs South Sudan to back up its position in negotiations with other countries in the region. Therefore, South Sudan should critically and dynamically analyze this geopolitical situation with full control over the decisions that its about to take.
Perinho Garang ( @perinho_garang ) is a South Sudanese Political and Human Right Analyst based in Wau, South Sudan and He the CEO of HosterGround Inc. And can be reach via: perinogarang10@gmail.com
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