2021 and Beyond Prospects: South Sudan still Mires in the Doldrums
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By Malith Alier, Kalgoorlie, Australia
Friday, January 15, 2020 (PW) — What are the prospects for South Sudan, 2021 and Beyond? The peace agreement, which was believed to usher in stability, is painfully in a tortoise pace. The economy took giant strides backwards. Silencing the gun is a herculean task for any one even the United Nations Mission in South Sudan, UNMISS,which has been there since 2005.
COVID-19 has added to the many miseries the country faces. Many VIPs and other well-known folks are cut by the pandemic before their time. Hundreds of other citizens have sadly lost their lives because of the virus. The movement of people in the country and across the borders had severely been curtailed by the same disease.
Another peace agreement is underway in Rome between the government and other rebel groups one of which is National Salvation Front of Tom Cirilo. Rebellion seems to be an unending endeavour in the short life of the country. It has become the only way for anyone to be welcome at the big table of the government of South Sudan.
Cattle has become a curse around the country for the cattlekeeper species. News of cattle here and there is always bad and tragic news. Cattle theft has occurred here, and such number of people perished there as result of cattle incidents. Cattle is surely a moving wealth! It seems to have no law that regulates its possession and uses in this part of the universe.
If the implementation of the peace agreement is successful, the country should organize elections in 2022 in accordance with the agreement. So far, the peace agreement is in doubt whether its cardinal components to be implemented have been passed.Several extensions and delays have been registered because of missed timelines.
South Sudan economy is in a chokehold. The US Dollar exchanges at 63 Pounds in the parallel marketcompared to 4 Pounds per Dollar in 2014. This means that basic commodities are unaffordable by low-income earners. The fact that civil servants and security forces in government payroll are now over eight months behind in salary is not helping matters.
Oil dependency is partly to blame for nonpayment of salaries and benefits in the public sector. Oil is indeed a volatile commodity at these unpredictable times. Turbulence in the world market has disastrous effects on oil sales worldwide. One factor which affected oil price of late is COVID-19. Oil was first affected by the 2013 war in the country. The most productive oilfields faced shutdown during the showdown between rebel and government forces. Oil workers fled the oilfields for safety in drops. When oil was about to recover after peace agreement, COVID-19 dealt it another hard blow to unconsciousness.
South Sudan government held a successful National Dialogue at the end of 2019. Some of the resolutions are great on paper. This is the usual way, no disappointment there. The country had promulgated a progressive constitution in readiness forindependence in 2011. It was great on paper and the world was pleased with it. When the implementation came, many South Sudanese became disillusioned. This disillusionment partly caused the 2013 conflict.
The country embarked on huge road infrastructure in 2020. The Bhar El Ghazel Road which was inaugurated with fanfare was unfortunately washed away by mighty rainwater before it left Juba. The invisible hand had to blame for the shoddy work. Juba-Bor-Malakal Highway is progressing well. The road has, however, its own questions unanswered. A four-lane high is a rarity in the world. South Sudan will be the first nation to construct a four-lane superhighway in the jungle. The next generation should pay for it.
So, South Sudan still faces the old issues this year and beyond. R-ARCSS agreement implementation and elections if the implementation is successful. The economy needs major rework to bring it back to before 2013 status. The country continues to be in chaos thanks to proliferation of Ak47. Law and order must be prioritized if the country should achieve the desired stability. CIVID – 19 will reduce if the vaccine touted about works. The country has to dig deep to acquire the vaccine to inoculate the population as will be the case in the east African region.
The author, Malith Alier, is a concerned South Sudanese Australian public intellectual and political commentator who can be reached via his email address: alierjokdeng@gmail.com
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